Remove ads from site

llamedos
02 April 2020 13:30:47

Todays Updates

+4,244 new cases (29,474 yesterday), +569 new deaths (2,352 yesterday)

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Am I right in saying that total figure of deaths (2921) still only relates to the number of sick hospitalised  ie. the actual number of deaths to date as a result of Covid-19 is higher.


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Lionel Hutz
02 April 2020 13:32:05

 


Disturbing evidence now emerging that Covid 19 causes brain damage.


https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1245479570754674698


 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Brian Gaze
02 April 2020 13:34:56


 


Disturbing evidence now emerging that Covid 19 causes brain damage.


https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1245479570754674698


 


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


 Actually there is evidence it causes brain damage:


Coronavirus could cause brain infection ‘that alters your mental state’, doc warns


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11311243/coronavirus-brain-infection-alters-mental-state/


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
haggishunter
02 April 2020 13:35:38
The UK figures include 50 for Scotland but only 10 of these were from the past 24 hours, this spike is due to a change in methodology over who is considered to have died from Covid-19. So the actual 24 hour figure for the UK is down slightly on yesterday as I understand it, still horrible though.
KevBrads1
02 April 2020 13:36:24

My mum has told me that last night she got a call from a friend to be told that an ex workmate of her's has died of the coronavirus. 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
The Beast from the East
02 April 2020 13:36:56

Mad-ine Dorries was already brain dead


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
JHutch
02 April 2020 13:37:23


 


You're not serious are you? Here are the stats from the last week. I expected the number of deaths today to be lower than yesterday.


(Number of deaths) +/- change


(181) +72
(260) +71
(209) -51
(180) -29
(381) +181
(563) +182
(569) +6


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Seems to me that the figures for Tuesday and Wednesday (therefore recorded on Monday and Tuesday) might have been catching up from the drop recorded on Sunday and Monday (therefore recorded on Saturday and Sunday) - suggests to me that there may have been less recording going on over the weekend, perhaps fewer (admin?) staff in?

The Beast from the East
02 April 2020 13:38:41

Jane Hill looks a bit pirky on the BBC news on at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Corrected


Shame she bats for the other side though


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
02 April 2020 13:40:39

Well my hunch may have been correct. Periodicity still there but gone out of phase.


Big jump day was yesterday when it should have been today.


 


Both variations of the JFF model called today fairly accurately.


With periodicity: 4231 (actual -13)


Without periodicity: 4774 (actual + 531)


 


But keeping in mind it may be out of phase now, will need to shift it back into phase (although need more data to do that).


I'm quite pleased with this. The data seems to be following the model quite well now which gives some veracity to it's predictions (i.e we are close to the peak).


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
02 April 2020 13:41:03


I now have some almost first hand experience. A casual acquaitance of mine displayed symptoms of mainly diarrhea, chronic fatigue, fever. Not sure the extent of the cough. He insisted he did not have the virus but then became severely breathless. He is now in hospital on a ventilator with double pneumonia. He is 72 was very fit, no known pre-existing. Four weeks ago I was sitting next to him at a quiz in in a busy hall. I'm hoping that is a sufficient gap as I don't have any symptoms. I understand he was socialising a fair bit up until the lockdown.


It has not been confirmed as Corona virus yet as the hospital have said it takes 5 days to get the results back !! At least he has a ventilator so fingers crossed but this sort of post is likely to become more common as it gets nearer home.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Hope your friend gets better, but someone his age should not have been socialising when the Govt advice changed in early March


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
02 April 2020 13:43:30

More on China:


https://www.opindia.com/2020/03/china-unsc-un-security-council-block-discussion-draft-coronavirus-covid-19-transparency/


Plus, there is an article in the Economist which once and for all demonstrates that the modellers trying to model the spread of the virus are about as useful as GFS forecasting a screaming easterly on January 20th ten days in advance:


https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/01/covid-19-may-be-far-more-prevalent-than-previously-thought


"ONE OF THE trickier tasks for epidemiologists studying the coronavirus pandemic is determining just how prevalent it is. According to Johns Hopkins University, there are now 886,000 confirmed cases of covid-19 around the world, or roughly one case for every 9,000 people. But these numbers reflect not only how many people are known to have contracted the illness, but how many are being tested for it. This varies widely from country to country. Germany is testing 500,000 of its citizens each week. Britain, which is limiting tests to those with severe symptoms, is managing just one-tenth as many.


A new paper by a group of 62 scientists attempts to shed light on the matter using some clever statistics. The study, which was overseen by Neil Ferguson and Samir Bhatt of Imperial College London, looked at data for 11 countries in western Europe. To arrive at accurate estimates for the likely prevalence of the virus in each country, the researchers’ epidemiological model calculates backwards using data on observed covid-19 deaths. By observing the timing of deaths alongside known information about transmission rates and time lags of infections, the researchers arrive at better estimates of covid-19 prevalence.


The results suggest the virus is far more prevalent than official case counts would suggest. Across the 11 European countries studied, official government statistics indicate that there are 319,500 confirmed cases, affecting less than 0.1% of the population. The Imperial researchers peg the more likely figure at 18.5m cases (with a confidence interval of between 7m and 43m), which suggests that, as of March 28th, 5% of the population in these countries have contracted the virus.


This high infection rate is partly because of the highly contagious nature of the virus. The epidemiologists estimated the “basic reproduction number” of covid-19 to be 3.9, meaning that in a population where no one is immune, and no precautions are taken to control the outbreak, each infected individual passes on the virus to nearly four other people. By implementing “non-pharmaceutical interventions”—such as school closures, the banning of public events and nationwide lockdowns—governments have successfully reduced this reproduction number. Once it drops below one, the number of new infections starts to fall.


The researchers estimate that timely interventions over the past month have reduced the reproduction number of the virus across the 11 countries studied by two-thirds to 1.4, thus saving between 21,000 and 120,000 lives. In Italy, alone, interventions have prevented some 38,000 deaths, according to the researchers. The past few weeks have been tough for those hit by the crisis. They can take some solace in knowing that it could have been much worse."


 ----------------------------------------------------------


 The Imperial researchers are talking out of their posteriors!


If all that was true. Kindly explain things like South Korea and Taiwan. They cannot have missed 98-99% of all cases (as is the claim here for the western nations) it is simply not possible at all, especially for Taiwan who never had it inside the country in any real sense of the term.


If these nations run at 1.5% death rate (which they have been) then obviously we cannot have 18.5mio cases as that would within 3-6 weeks (of which some have already passed) produce 280,000 deaths (there is a cumulative 34,813 so far) and mean at least 1 million in hospitals as severe cases (more than 2x the total combined tested as infected level) who do need hospital help -  it is not optional nor something that can be missed, they will need it or die shortly after due to hypoxia.


New world order coming.
Quantum
02 April 2020 13:45:49

JFF model with periodicity:



And without:



 


You can see on the first one that we have gone out of phase, will attempt to shift it back into phase when we have more data avalible. Regardless I have no reason to change any model parameters, which means we are close to the peak which is expected to be 3-6 days away (depending on the periodicity).


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin D
02 April 2020 13:46:27
The patients who died in England were aged between 22 and 100 years old.

All had underlying health conditions apart from 44 who had no known underlying health conditions they were aged between 25 and 100 years old.
Maunder Minimum
02 April 2020 13:49:36


 The Imperial researchers are talking out of their posteriors!


If all that was true. Kindly explain things like South Korea and Taiwan. They cannot have missed 98-99% of all cases (as is the claim here for the western nations) it is simply not possible at all, especially for Taiwan who never had it inside the country in any real sense of the term.


If these nations run at 1.5% death rate (which they have been) then obviously we cannot have 18.5mio cases as that would within 3-6 weeks (of which some have already passed) produce 280,000 deaths (there is a cumulative 34,813 so far) and mean at least 1 million in hospitals as severe cases (more than 2x the total combined tested as infected level) who do need hospital help -  it is not optional nor something that can be missed, they will need it or die shortly after due to hypoxia.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


N.B. based on an average CFR of 1.5% as demonstrated in the Far East, the true number infected across the 11 countries studied in western Europe would be in the region of 2.3 to 2.4 million in total.


New world order coming.
speckledjim
02 April 2020 13:50:17


 


You're not serious are you? Here are the stats from the last week. I expected the number of deaths today to be lower than yesterday.


(Number of deaths) +/- change


(181) +72
(260) +71
(209) -51
(180) -29
(381) +181
(563) +182
(569) +6


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Of course I’m serious, I’m expecting the numbers to rise for at least the next week as they have (and are doing) in other European countries. I’d expected an increase today of approx 30%


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gavin D
02 April 2020 13:54:00
The growth rate has fallen to 24% from 31.5% yesterday.
Brian Gaze
02 April 2020 13:55:46


 


Of course I’m serious, I’m expecting the numbers to rise for at least the next week as they have (and are doing) in other European countries. I’d expected an increase today of approx 30%


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


That's simply wrong. France, Spain and Italy have all reported fewer deaths on some days despite a general upwards trend. See:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
speckledjim
02 April 2020 14:08:48


 


That's simply wrong. France, Spain and Italy have all reported fewer deaths on some days despite a general upwards trend. See:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


no it’s not wrong, I’m talking about the overall figure not the change from one day to the next. The previous 7 days in the UK had % increases in death numbers of 31,27,15,21,34,31,37. That’s an average of 29% per day. We now have a total of 2921 deaths so I’d expect that figure to be approx 3800 tomorrow, an increase of 879. If the increase was as low as say 20% then the overall figure will be approx 3500, an increase of 579.


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Maunder Minimum
02 April 2020 14:12:50

The thing to remember is that the CFR represents infection rates from three to four weeks ago and is therefore a lagging indicator.


We won't see the effects of the lockdown in the number of fatalities from COVID-19 for at least another week or two.


In the meantime, it will continue to rise (or fail to drop).


New world order coming.
The Beast from the East
02 April 2020 14:17:51

The growth rate has fallen to 24% from 31.5% yesterday.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



And the heatwave next week should also help kill it off. Hopefully we can start lifting the lockdown by the end of the month and get the pubs and shops open again!


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Sevendust
02 April 2020 14:19:40

Some rose tinted glasses in here. The bottom line is deaths, forecasts are just that, deaths are the reality

The Beast from the East
02 April 2020 14:19:45

44 who had no known underlying health conditions they were aged between 25 and 100 years old.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I doubt a 100 year old would have no underlying health conditions


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
02 April 2020 14:20:39


 


no it’s not wrong, I’m talking about the overall figure not the change from one day to the next. The previous 7 days in the UK had % increases in death numbers of 31,27,15,21,34,31,37. That’s an average of 29% per day. We now have a total of 2921 deaths so I’d expect that figure to be approx 3800 tomorrow, an increase of 879. If the increase was as low as say 20% then the overall figure will be approx 3500, an increase of 579.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Today's increase is just over 24% which is higher than 2 of the last 7 days. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Heavy Weather 2013
02 April 2020 14:21:06


 



And the heatwave next week should also help kill it off. Hopefully we can start lifting the lockdown by the end of the month and get the pubs and shops open again!


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Your worried about the pubs opening after another 569 people died? 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
02 April 2020 14:24:40

Can someone look at this. Have the BBC confused their numbers?


___




Here's the breakdown of UK fatalities






The number of deaths from coronavirus have now been broken down across the UK.


In England, the figure has reached 2,698, up by 561 from yesterday.


NHS England said the patients were aged between 22 and 100, with 44 of those 561 - who were aged between 25 and 100 - having no known underlying health conditions.


In Scotland, 126 patients have now died - up by 50 from yesterday.


In Wales, the total number of deaths is now 117 - a rise of 19.


And in Northern Ireland, a further six people have died - bringing the total to 36.




Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Remove ads from site

Ads