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Brian Gaze
06 April 2020 06:36:59


 


If infection confers no immunity at that range, then a vaccine will be almost impossible to produce. Paradoxically, if you can't become immune to it you'd be better letting everyone get it and allowing it to preferentially mutate to a weaker form. Basically, it would be a disaster. The only hope would be finding effective medicines. 


Originally Posted by: Chidog 


That was my thought too. The Sunday Times yesterday said the UK government is worried about the possibility of immunity being very short lasting. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 April 2020 06:38:00

On the point of some scientific experts criticising others. Welcome to science, it happens all the time. Some research groups seem to thrive on it.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


On a lighter note, my research supervisor many years ago, in a seminar,  described the head of a rival group as 'that charlatan'. 'That charlatan' received he Nobel prize for his work about 12 years later https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/1978/summary/

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Justin W
06 April 2020 06:38:16


 


Exactly but beyond anecdotes and Tweets I am not sure there is any verifiable evidence (yet).


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


No, there isn’t. It all appears to be anecdotal but that anecdotal evidence over reinfection/lack of immunity seems to be increasing.


I’m alarmed about how much we don’t know. 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 06:41:39


 


Very worrying. This highlights quite clearly now that we are on this for the long haul until a vaccine is produced. Those calling for the pubs to re-open and/or the economy to open up are very misguided.


I see the Mail is leading with the story about the economy.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I very much doubt a vaccine will do the trick if people are being re-infected.  However, this hasn’t quite been proven yet and may be fake news.  Let’s just hope that’s the case, otherwise, as you say, this is going to be with us for a lot longer than we hoped.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
doctormog
06 April 2020 06:42:59


 


No, there isn’t. It all appears to be anecdotal but that anecdotal evidence over reinfection/lack of immunity appears to be increasing.


I’m alarmed about how much we don’t appear to know. 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I suspect it highlights flaws in the testing not reinfection as such (false negatives when a patient tests negative when there are in fact still traces of the virus present). The immune system will not be able help someone to recover from or “defeat” a virus but then succumb to the same one immediately afterwards.


You’re correct that there is a lot we don’t know but there are things that we do know.


P.S. DEW  that really doesn’t surprise me!

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
06 April 2020 06:51:58


The immune system will not be able help someone to recover from or “defeat” a virus but then succumb to the same one immediately afterwards


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Out of interest, if you're infected with a particular virus and "defeat" it, then the virus over the coming weeks and months mutates such that you can catch it again - would the "memory" of the original version mean it has less of an effect on you than it otherwise would?

Leysdown, north Kent
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 06:52:11


In her defence, if she drove door to door and spoke to no-one when she was at her second home, she was unlikely to be spreading the virus and probably aware that this was the case. But the rules for which she was responsible have to take into account the people who would have treated the drive as a social occasion on reaching the destination.


Originally Posted by: DEW 

She really has no defence!  The point is, the general public have been told not to go to their second homes and are restricted to essential travel only.  These rules should apply to everyone. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Justin W
06 April 2020 06:52:30


 


I suspect it highlights flaws in the testing not reinfection as such (false negatives when a patient tests negative when there are in fact still traces of the virus present). The immune system will not be able help someone to recover from or “defeat” a virus but then succumb to the same one immediately afterwards.


You’re correct that there is a lot we don’t know but there are things that we do know.


P.S. DEW  that really doesn’t surprise me!


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It seems that the tests are only reliable in 50 to 60 per cent of cases (which is why HMG have not yet bought the 17.5 million it is ordering). In which case, this may close off an early exit from lockdown.


I appreciate all of your posts, Michael. They do provide a more scientific antidote to some of the hysteria. But we are all playing catch-up with this thing - it has proven itself to be worse than we were originally told at every turn.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Retron
06 April 2020 06:53:30

Regarding BoJo, the Tele's live feed has just posted this. Make of it what you will!


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-boris-johnson-hospital-queen-speech-cases/


7:51 AM

Boris Johnson is "still very much in charge of the Government" despite spending a night in hospital with the coronavirus, a Cabinet minister has said.

Housing and Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick told BBC Breakfast: "He spent the night in hospital and of course we all wish him well and we hope that as a result of these tests he will be able to come back to Downing Street as soon as possible.

"He's been working extremely hard leading the Government and being constantly updated. That's going to continue. Obviously today he's in hospital having the tests but he will continue to be kept informed as to what's happening and to be in charge of the Government.

"I hope, I think we all do, that he has a speedy recovery and that he gets back to Number 10 and takes charge in the way he would want to as soon as possible.

"I'm sure this is very frustrating for him, for somebody like Boris who wants to be hands running the Government from the front, but nonetheless he's still very much in charge of the Government."

Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
06 April 2020 06:57:34


 


It seems that the tests are only reliable in 50 to 60 per cent of cases (which is why HMG have not yet bought the 17.5 million it is ordering). In which case, this may close off an early exit from lockdown.


I appreciate all of your posts, Michael. They do provide a more scientific antidote to some of the hysteria. But we are all playing catch-up with this thing - it has proven itself to be worse than we were originally told at every turn.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Yes you are absolutely right about that Justin and I was just reading an article in Nature that potentially gives some further insight into why https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x


 


Darren, in answer to your question (not that this is much of an answer I’m afraid), I genuinely don’t know and it may depend on the extent and nature of any mutation.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
06 April 2020 06:57:50


 


Very worrying. This highlights quite clearly now that we are on this for the long haul until a vaccine is produced. Those calling for the pubs to re-open and/or the economy to open up are very misguided.


I see the Mail is leading with the story about the economy.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


There’s surely no guarantee that a vaccine is even feasible? After all this virus is closely related to the common cold, an illness that is the standard example of something modern medicine can’t protect us from. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Justin W
06 April 2020 07:01:57


 


Yes you are absolutely right about that Justin and I was just reading an article in Nature that potentially gives some further insight into why https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x


 


Darren, in answer to your question (not that this is much of an answer I’m afraid), I genuinely don’t know and it may depend on the extent and nature of any mutation.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Thanks, Michael.


Have only read the abstract but not sure what to make of this:


“Active virus replication in the upper respiratory tract puts the prospects of COVID-19 containment in perspective.”

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
doctormog
06 April 2020 07:05:12


 


Thanks, Michael.


Have only read the abstract but not sure what to make of this:


“Active virus replication in the upper respiratory tract puts the prospects of COVID-19 containment in perspective.”


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I think the suggestion is that the virus can replicate easily high up in the respiratory tract e.g. in the throat and as a consequence can spread to others before a person has any significant symptoms beyond a possible sore throat. I think it reinforces why the current lockdown is so important. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
06 April 2020 07:05:16


 


I spoke to an old mate who is a Lobby hack last night and he said that Johnson is very seriously ill and deteriorating quite rapidly. His breathing is apparently very poor.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


That’s sad news if true. Like many here I am no fan of his policies but I have been shocked to see people on social media wishing him the worst. Humanity has to come before party politics especially at a time like this. I hope one of my old school friends who posted on our FB group last week that he hoped the virus killed Boris is now feeling suitable chastened. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Justin W
06 April 2020 07:06:37


 


I think the suggestion is that the virus can replicate easily high up in the respiratory tract e.g. in the throat and as a consequence can spread to others before a person has any significant symptoms beyond a possible sore throat. I think it reinforces why the current lockdown is so important. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Thank you!

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Retron
06 April 2020 07:07:18


There’s surely no guarantee that a vaccine is even feasible? After all this virus is closely related to the common cold, an illness that is the standard example of something modern medicine can’t protect us from. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Aha - I'd read (years ago) that the common cold is so hard to vaccinate against because there are not only several groups of viruses which can cause it (coronaviruses, rhinoviruses etc), but there are several variants within each of the types - meaning there are hundreds, if not thousands, of different strains which would need to be vaccinated against.


You could, in theory, do it for a few types but with the other hundreds out there... it'd be rather pointless.


PS - thank you for the reply Michael! If nothing else, this new coronavirus will provide plenty of research material in the years to come and will hopefully further our understanding of how these things work and evolve.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Gavin D
06 April 2020 07:11:47

llamedos
06 April 2020 07:14:07


 


That’s sad news if true. Like many here I am no fan of his policies but I have been shocked to see people on social media wishing him the worst. Humanity has to come before party politics especially at a time like this. I hope one of my old school friends who posted on our FB group last week that he hoped the virus killed Boris is now feeling suitable chastened. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Vile 

"Life with the Lions"

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Gavin D
06 April 2020 07:17:27
Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick says he expects Boris Johnson will be back at Downing Street "shortly"

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1247060333967167489 
Gavin D
06 April 2020 07:18:57

Gandalf The White
06 April 2020 07:25:35


Looks like Japan is going to declare a state of emergency.


 


Not heard much from Japan, what's happen to bring this? I thought they had it under some kind of control?


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Covid-19 isn’t ‘under control’ anywhere, if by that you mean no longer a problem: it’s just being managed at huge cost and effort. This is a virus for which there is currently absolutely no effective treatment anywhere.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ulric
06 April 2020 07:29:13

Thrashing around, looking for someone to blame.


 



To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Maunder Minimum
06 April 2020 07:35:21


 


Covid-19 isn’t ‘under control’ anywhere, if by that you mean no longer a problem: it’s just being managed at huge cost and effort. This is a virus for which there is currently absolutely no effective treatment anywhere.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Which is why Taiwan's approach of keeping it out as much as possible is the only short term solution.


Anyhow, just reading comments in The Times about testing - it is depressing how many people cannot understand the difference between antigen and antibody testing - are most people as thick as Peston?


 

New world order coming.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 07:37:51


 


 Dreadful news. I don't like the bloke, primarily because of his role in Brexit and his chequered history, but this is awful for his family and the country. I hope he pulls through. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I didn’t particularly like him either and thought he was a terrible choice as leader of the Tory party.  However, I have changed my view and he’s gone way up in my estimation, mainly because he’s not your typical stuffed shirt politician.  He’s more human than most and people seem to warm to him.


I think the country needed a change and someone they could relate to, in as much as, he’s made human mistakes.  I also think he’s dedicated to his cause in a more open way than other, out of reach, PM’s have been.  I really do hope he pulls through this and after his experience, I can see more resources being pumped into the NHS.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
doctormog
06 April 2020 07:41:45


I didn’t particularly like him either and thought he was a terrible choice as leader of the Tory party.  However, I have changed my view and he’s gone way up in my estimation, mainly because he’s not your typical stuffed shirt politician.  He’s more human than most and people seem to warm to him.


I think the country needed a change and someone they could relate to, in as much as, he’s made human mistakes.  I also think he’s dedicated to his cause in a more open way than other, out of reach, PM’s have been.  I really do hope he pulls through this and after his experience, I can see more resources being pumped into the NHS.


Originally Posted by: Caz 


One thing is for certain and that is if, and hopefully when, he recovers people will not accuse him of not taking it seriously.


Maunder the problem is not that people don’t know the difference between antibodies and antigens and their testing, as that Is perfectly understandable. The problem is they half know and then Tweet about it etc.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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