That was my thought too. The Sunday Times yesterday said the UK government is worried about the possibility of immunity being very short lasting. 

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On a lighter note, my research supervisor many years ago, in a seminar,  described the head of a rival group as 'that charlatan'. 'That charlatan' received he Nobel prize for his work about 12 years later https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/1978/summary/

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No, there isn’t. It all appears to be anecdotal but that anecdotal evidence over reinfection/lack of immunity seems to be increasing.

I’m alarmed about how much we don’t know. 

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I very much doubt a vaccine will do the trick if people are being re-infected.  However, this hasn’t quite been proven yet and may be fake news.  Let’s just hope that’s the case, otherwise, as you say, this is going to be with us for a lot longer than we hoped.

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I suspect it highlights flaws in the testing not reinfection as such (false negatives when a patient tests negative when there are in fact still traces of the virus present). The immune system will not be able help someone to recover from or “defeat” a virus but then succumb to the same one immediately afterwards.

You’re correct that there is a lot we don’t know but there are things that we do know.

P.S. DEW  that really doesn’t surprise me!

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Out of interest, if you're infected with a particular virus and "defeat" it, then the virus over the coming weeks and months mutates such that you can catch it again - would the "memory" of the original version mean it has less of an effect on you than it otherwise would?

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She really has no defence!  The point is, the general public have been told not to go to their second homes and are restricted to essential travel only.  These rules should apply to everyone. 

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It seems that the tests are only reliable in 50 to 60 per cent of cases (which is why HMG have not yet bought the 17.5 million it is ordering). In which case, this may close off an early exit from lockdown.

I appreciate all of your posts, Michael. They do provide a more scientific antidote to some of the hysteria. But we are all playing catch-up with this thing - it has proven itself to be worse than we were originally told at every turn.

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Regarding BoJo, the Tele's live feed has just posted this. Make of it what you will!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-boris-johnson-hospital-queen-speech-cases/

7:51 AM

Boris Johnson is "still very much in charge of the Government" despite spending a night in hospital with the coronavirus, a Cabinet minister has said.

Housing and Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick told BBC Breakfast: "He spent the night in hospital and of course we all wish him well and we hope that as a result of these tests he will be able to come back to Downing Street as soon as possible.

"He's been working extremely hard leading the Government and being constantly updated. That's going to continue. Obviously today he's in hospital having the tests but he will continue to be kept informed as to what's happening and to be in charge of the Government.

"I hope, I think we all do, that he has a speedy recovery and that he gets back to Number 10 and takes charge in the way he would want to as soon as possible.

"I'm sure this is very frustrating for him, for somebody like Boris who wants to be hands running the Government from the front, but nonetheless he's still very much in charge of the Government."

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Yes you are absolutely right about that Justin and I was just reading an article in Nature that potentially gives some further insight into why https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x

 

Darren, in answer to your question (not that this is much of an answer I’m afraid), I genuinely don’t know and it may depend on the extent and nature of any mutation.

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There’s surely no guarantee that a vaccine is even feasible? After all this virus is closely related to the common cold, an illness that is the standard example of something modern medicine can’t protect us from. 

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Thanks, Michael.

Have only read the abstract but not sure what to make of this:

“Active virus replication in the upper respiratory tract puts the prospects of COVID-19 containment in perspective.”

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I think the suggestion is that the virus can replicate easily high up in the respiratory tract e.g. in the throat and as a consequence can spread to others before a person has any significant symptoms beyond a possible sore throat. I think it reinforces why the current lockdown is so important. 

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That’s sad news if true. Like many here I am no fan of his policies but I have been shocked to see people on social media wishing him the worst. Humanity has to come before party politics especially at a time like this. I hope one of my old school friends who posted on our FB group last week that he hoped the virus killed Boris is now feeling suitable chastened. 

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Thank you!

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Aha - I'd read (years ago) that the common cold is so hard to vaccinate against because there are not only several groups of viruses which can cause it (coronaviruses, rhinoviruses etc), but there are several variants within each of the types - meaning there are hundreds, if not thousands, of different strains which would need to be vaccinated against.

You could, in theory, do it for a few types but with the other hundreds out there... it'd be rather pointless.

PS - thank you for the reply Michael! If nothing else, this new coronavirus will provide plenty of research material in the years to come and will hopefully further our understanding of how these things work and evolve.

 

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Latest data via @IslaGlaister (to Apr 5)
- 621 more people sadly died. 4,934 total (1,228 a wk ago to give u sense of pace)
- Increase 14% (lowest increase for more than wk)
- Now 3.5 days for deaths to double
- *Caution w figures* Could be weekend effect due to admin delays 1/ pic.twitter.com/48274NTJ8z

— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) April 6, 2020

Vile 

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Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick says he expects Boris Johnson will be back at Downing Street "shortly"

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1247060333967167489 

.@RobertJenrick says he’s “heard the PM is doing well” #today

— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) April 6, 2020

Covid-19 isn’t ‘under control’ anywhere, if by that you mean no longer a problem: it’s just being managed at huge cost and effort. This is a virus for which there is currently absolutely no effective treatment anywhere.

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Thrashing around, looking for someone to blame.

 

Is there anyone left they haven't blamed? pic.twitter.com/d8bvojspYi

— Henrietta W M 🇪🇺🇸🇪🇬🇧 🐟 #StayAtHome (@henrietta_22) April 5, 2020

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Which is why Taiwan's approach of keeping it out as much as possible is the only short term solution.

Anyhow, just reading comments in The Times about testing - it is depressing how many people cannot understand the difference between antigen and antibody testing - are most people as thick as Peston?

 

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I didn’t particularly like him either and thought he was a terrible choice as leader of the Tory party.  However, I have changed my view and he’s gone way up in my estimation, mainly because he’s not your typical stuffed shirt politician.  He’s more human than most and people seem to warm to him.

I think the country needed a change and someone they could relate to, in as much as, he’s made human mistakes.  I also think he’s dedicated to his cause in a more open way than other, out of reach, PM’s have been.  I really do hope he pulls through this and after his experience, I can see more resources being pumped into the NHS.

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One thing is for certain and that is if, and hopefully when, he recovers people will not accuse him of not taking it seriously.

Maunder the problem is not that people don’t know the difference between antibodies and antigens and their testing, as that Is perfectly understandable. The problem is they half know and then Tweet about it etc.

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