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warrenb
06 April 2020 13:23:05
Seems the lockdown is working, lets look out for a blip in London in around 2 weeks time, because of all the muppets that decided it was a lovely day to catch up with friends and sunbathe.
Tonbridge 45m 
xioni2
06 April 2020 13:25:33

Breaking: NHS England have announced 403 new deaths another big drop

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I wish I am completely wrong on this, but I can see a big rise in the next 7-10 days, hopefully not reaching or exceeding the Italian/Spanish numbers though.

Justin W
06 April 2020 13:27:28


 


I wish I am completely wrong on this, but I can see a big rise in the next 7-10 days, hopefully not reaching or exceeding the Italian/Spanish numbers though.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


There was also a drop last weekend - it's down to verification, apparently.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Rob K
06 April 2020 13:28:39


 


Disgusting people. I have nothing but contempt for people like this.


From what I've seen it's mostly my generation yet again...


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


It’s the polarising effect of people living in social media bubbles that present those on the other side of the political spectrum as evil/inhuman etc. We have lost the middle ground of common consensus. Everything has to be about scoring points over the other side and demonising them, and this sort of thing is the inevitable result, with young people believing those who don’t share their political views are unworthy of respect or compassion. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
06 April 2020 13:30:33


 


I know you've spent a few nights together, but did you really weigh him up? (with apologies for the mediocre humour).



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Stats were in The Times this morning. I was shocked. He's 4cm shorter than me and 30kg heavier (approx). The

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
SJV
06 April 2020 13:30:51

Seems the lockdown is working, lets look out for a blip in London in around 2 weeks time, because of all the muppets that decided it was a lovely day to catch up with friends and sunbathe.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Honestly, I don't think we've got nearly enough data through yet to assume this. Give it another 7-10 days and we'll see how the figures are looking  That being said, any day that has fewer deaths reported, regardless of how it ends up feeding into the bigger picture, is a positive result.

Gavin D
06 April 2020 13:31:54


 There was also a drop last weekend - it's down to verification, apparently.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


 


Last Saturday 209


Last Sunday 180 


Last Monday 381


 


We've avoided the big Monday leap which is a positive


 


 


 

xioni2
06 April 2020 13:32:46


 There was also a drop last weekend - it's down to verification, apparently.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


It could be this, who knows. I just hope that if the 'daily' deaths rise significantly in the next 10 days, that people won't be questioning the lockdown. Many people don't seem to appreciate the lags involved.


What happens in Italy and Spain should be useful (although no 2 countries are the same).


 


 

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 13:34:15


I've been cleaning my patio with a biodegradable, wild-life friendly, solution. The results have been brilliant but the lady of the house has found some dead worms, which is apparently my fault. There has been quite a lot of saucepan clanging and bearing in mind it's not Thursday I'm now concerned I may also be admitted to hospital with "underlying health conditions"......  


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


If tigers can catch coronavirus then maybe worms can too? Did you try that angle? Have you tried oxygen?


I always find with any DIY activity the criticism always vastly outweighs any praise. I wonder why I bother.

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Gavin D
06 April 2020 13:34:32
Deaths down by 152 compared to yesterday in England
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 13:37:47


 


It’s the polarising effect of people living in social media bubbles that present those on the other side of the political spectrum as evil/inhuman etc. We have lost the middle ground of common consensus. Everything has to be about scoring points over the other side and demonising them, and this sort of thing is the inevitable result, with young people believing those who don’t share their political views are unworthy of respect or compassion. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Quite agree - social media is dehumanising the human race. 

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
llamedos
06 April 2020 13:38:10


 


If tigers can catch coronavirus then maybe worms can too? Did you try that angle? Have you tried oxygen?


I always find with any DIY activity the criticism always vastly outweighs any praise. I wonder why I bother.


Originally Posted by: RobN 

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Darren S
06 April 2020 13:38:35


 


 


Last Saturday 209


Last Sunday 180 


Last Monday 381


 


We've avoided the big Monday leap which is a positive


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


You're a day out.


Last Saturday 260


Last Sunday 209


Last Monday 180


Last Tuesday 381

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Justin W
06 April 2020 13:40:17


 


 


Last Saturday 209


Last Sunday 180 


Last Monday 381


 


We've avoided the big Monday leap which is a positive


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


While I hope your optimism is justified, the rise in admissions at the end of last week suggests to me that we still a way off the peak and that these figures are an aberration.


But - would be very good news if we are past the peak. I just don't imagine that we are.


EDIT: Just seen Darren's post. Seems that I was correct and your figures are inaccurate. My above point still stands either way.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 13:40:49

 


We were going to book a cruise to the Med in October, visiting Spain and Italy. A no no on three counts.


Yes cruising will need a lot of time to bounce back from this. Something that will stick in the mind early on was that stricken Princess ship.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 

I don’t personally think cruising will suffer much more than other holidays, just as I don’t think skiing holidays will suffer.  When you consider how fast and how far this has spread, it was unlikely to have avoided cruise ships, especially those carrying Chinese passengers.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Justin W
06 April 2020 13:43:38

I still estimate that the UK daily death rate will peak at somewhere around 1,500 in the next week or two.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Quantum
06 April 2020 13:44:24

JFF model goes for a (per constant test) decline in confirmed cases today with yesterday as the peak. So will be interesting to see if the actual number is well above the model line.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Sevendust
06 April 2020 13:45:33

First reported Covid death in Benin

Quantum
06 April 2020 13:48:00

The model is predicting for today:


5120 new confirmed cases


11044 total tests (this is simply to be consistent with the govts 100k by the end of month target)


Note that the peak in confirmed cases is still April 12th but that's only because number of tests are ramped up to 35893 by then.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
JHutch
06 April 2020 13:48:06


First reported Covid death in Benin


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


How many countries are left now?

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 13:49:06


 


There was also a drop last weekend - it's down to verification, apparently.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Yes, I think it’s the weekend factor!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Maunder Minimum
06 April 2020 13:49:55


 


I must admit I assumed that if they could control the outbreak in Singapore that we'd be able to do likewise.  I must admit that my confidence was dented somewhat when we breezed through T5 at Heathrow with absolutely no checks or questions being asked.


But I think if we turn the clock back to mid January the level of risk was still an unknown, both transmissibility and mortality rates. Over two months later and the position has evolved as data and understanding have increased.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Come on Gandalf, you were Dr Pangloss back then. I recall being laughed at for suggesting the WHO recommend against people going on cruise ships in the region at the time. Even now, you don't accept that we should have stopped flights from infected regions which I advocated at the time, likewise, I was urging port screening, hence my email to my MP on 7th February which elicited the most complacent response imaginable from the Home Office.


We should have closed borders to infected regions and had port screening in place right from early February - that is the only environment in which quarantine and contact tracing can possibly be effective.


 

New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
06 April 2020 13:50:04


Should point out the further down the path to a severe form of COVID you go (asymptomatic->mild->Hospital->ICU->ventilator) the less your demographics matter. Older men are far more likely to end up in hospital than younger women but have almost the same odds of dying by the time they get to the ventilator.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I assume that's because severe lung damage carries essentially the same risk at whatever age. Plus the risk of multiple organ failure due to lack of oxygen, from which there is no easy way back, AFAIK.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
06 April 2020 13:50:07


I still estimate that the UK daily death rate will peak at somewhere around 1,500 in the next week or two.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Unfortunately, exceeding 1,000 looks relatively easy. 


 

Rob K
06 April 2020 13:50:24


 


You're a day out.


Last Saturday 260


Last Sunday 209


Last Monday 180


Last Tuesday 381


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Based on that and the number of cases/admissions there has to be a real danger that tomorrow’s toll will be into four figures :(

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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