theweatheroutlook

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Sevendust
06 April 2020 13:51:03


 


How many countries are left now?


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


Probably still quite a few but Africa has been slowly increasing presumably as they catch up on testing

Rob K
06 April 2020 13:52:35


 


How many countries are left now?


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


Any word from North Sentinel Island?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
06 April 2020 13:55:19

Google trend data for "Loss of smell"


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=GB&q=loss%20of%20smell


Declined over the last 7 days.


This is an early symptom that will have a comparitively small lag.


Indication we are past the peak?


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
06 April 2020 13:56:15


 I must admit I assumed that if they could control the outbreak in Singapore that we'd be able to do likewise.  I must admit that my confidence was dented somewhat when we breezed through T5 at Heathrow with absolutely no checks or questions being asked.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


This is so crucial, sure perhaps (or even probably) the WHO was wrong to ask countries not to close borders in January, but they were caveating this with asking countries to screen travellers from infected areas and use their travel history too. The UK and Europe have failed in this and we are all paying the price now.


 

Justin W
06 April 2020 13:58:11


Google trend data for "Loss of smell"


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=GB&q=loss%20of%20smell


Declined over the last 7 days.


This is an early symptom that will have a comparitively small lag.


Indication we are past the peak?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


That's search data, isn't it? And it is basically at the same level as it was on April 1. Not sure that suggests anything.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Quantum
06 April 2020 13:58:16


Google trend data for "Loss of smell"


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=GB&q=loss%20of%20smell


Declined over the last 7 days.


This is an early symptom that will have a comparitively small lag.


Indication we are past the peak?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Similar trends with things like


'can't smell'


'lost taste'


e.c.t.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Darren S
06 April 2020 13:59:15


 


How many countries are left now?


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


This BBC article discusses countries yet to record a case (South Sudan has since recorded cases):


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52120439


Comoros; Kiribati; Lesotho; Marshall Islands; Micronesia; Nauru; North Korea; Palau; Samoa; Sao Tome and Principe; Solomon Islands; South Sudan; Tajikistan; Tonga; Turkmenistan; Tuvalu; Vanuatu, Yemen


There are another 55 countries and territories which have recorded cases but no deaths. That includes Réunion (344 cases), Vietnam (245 cases) and Malta (241 cases).

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Quantum
06 April 2020 13:59:50


 


That's search data, isn't it? And it is basically at the same level as it was on April 1. Not sure that suggests anything.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


The crude assumption is that people, who have suddenly lost their sense of smell, will google it.


I've tried it with things like 'I can't smell' and you get similar results. They are probably a bit more robust as they arn't just people googling after they have heard about it on the news.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
06 April 2020 14:01:10


 The crude assumption is that people, who have suddenly lost their sense of smell, will google it.


I've tried it with things like 'I can't smell' and you get similar results. They are probably a bit more robust as they arn't just people googling after they have heard about it on the news.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Not necessarily, some people could have wanted to find out about it in previous weeks. Like us here, there are more armchair experts who want to be informed.

llamedos
06 April 2020 14:01:38


I still estimate that the UK daily death rate will peak at somewhere around 1,500 in the next week or two.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 

You obviously have your own methodology and may well be correct, but I sincerely hope you've over estimated

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Quantum
06 April 2020 14:02:17


 


Not necessarily, some people could have wanted to find out about it in previous weeks. Like us here, there are more armchair experts who want to be informed.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


That's true, its my hope that personalized searches like


"I can't smell"


or


"why can't I smell"


e.c.t.


have less of that sort of thing going on.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 14:06:36


Come on Gandalf, you were Dr Pangloss back then. I recall being laughed at for suggesting the WHO recommend against people going on cruise ships in the region at the time. Even now, you don't accept that we should have stopped flights from infected regions which I advocated at the time, likewise, I was urging port screening, hence my email to my MP on 7th February which elicited the most complacent response imaginable from the Home Office.


We should have closed borders to infected regions and had port screening in place right from early February - that is the only environment in which quarantine and contact tracing can possibly be effective.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

I can quite understand why Gandalf argued his point, as I felt exactly the same and so did Joe.  We’d all been to Asia, to the places people on here were saying were really bad and repeating media snippets that were so exaggerated.  We were all trying to put the record straight!  


You also kept going on about cruise ships, which I still don’t think are any worse than hotels.  Yes, you’re right they could have been stopped earlier and so could skiing trips and all overseas travel but there is no evidence that it would have stopped this from spreading.


I genuinely don’t think anyone at that stage could have believed it would get bad enough to need such strict measures.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Brian Gaze
06 April 2020 14:08:14


 


The crude assumption is that people, who have suddenly lost their sense of smell, will google it.


I've tried it with things like 'I can't smell' and you get similar results. They are probably a bit more robust as they arn't just people googling after they have heard about it on the news.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I haven't lost my sense of smell but Googled it a few days ago to find out more. The idea was receiving a lot of media coverage at the time.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
06 April 2020 14:11:00


 


I haven't lost my sense of smell but Googled it a few days ago to find out more. The idea was receiving a lot of media coverage at the time.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Did you google 'loss of smell' though?


As opposed to something like 'why cant i smell' or 'i cant smell' or 'smell has gone'


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
06 April 2020 14:13:58


 Did you google 'loss of smell' though?


As opposed to something like 'why cant i smell' or 'i cant smell' or 'smell has gone'


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It's a good point, but some people might want to personalise their searches. 

Brian Gaze
06 April 2020 14:15:30


 


Did you google 'loss of smell' though?


As opposed to something like 'why cant i smell' or 'i cant smell' or 'smell has gone'


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I would have done something like "loss of smell corona virus"


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=GB&q=loss%20of%20smell%20corona%20virus


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
06 April 2020 14:18:04


 


I would have done something like "loss of smell corona virus"


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=GB&q=loss%20of%20smell%20corona%20virus


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I would definitely avoid any mention of coronavirus for this proxy then.


The advantages of this method are it will give very current up to the minute data with a huge sample size. The downside is it can only ever be a proxy.


Naturally I want to find the best proxy that is not affected by the news cycle.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
springsunshine
06 April 2020 14:19:10





I’m still inclined to think all is not as rosy as they’re painting.  Why else would he remain in hospital?


Originally Posted by: John p 


erm because he is the pm and its vital he is looked after properly.

Saint Snow
06 April 2020 14:19:25


 


We are supposed to be on a cruise (Princess Cruises) from Rome to Athens in August - our first one ever. Booked last autumn obviously. So far Princess have only cancelled cruises up until May and we know the cruise has no chance of happening, it's just a case of wondering how long it will be until our cruise is cancelled and a full refund is available. So far we've only paid our deposit, but wondering if they'll cancel before the balance is due.


In fact I was supposed to be in Antigua currently, our main holiday of the year which was cancelled too. I'm wondering when I will next leave Berkshire, let alone the UK!


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


 


We thankfully went on ours last year - and it included Spain and northern Italy. 


I was only saying to the missus yesterday that when this is over, there'll be some great cruise bargains to be had. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Phil G
06 April 2020 14:19:25
Local online paper saying no new virus deaths recorded here in Essex in the last 24 hours.
Roger Parsons
06 April 2020 14:23:00


 


This BBC article discusses countries yet to record a case (South Sudan has since recorded cases):


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52120439


Comoros; Kiribati; Lesotho; Marshall Islands; Micronesia; Nauru; North Korea; Palau; Samoa; Sao Tome and Principe; Solomon Islands; South Sudan; Tajikistan; Tonga; Turkmenistan; Tuvalu; Vanuatu, Yemen


There are another 55 countries and territories which have recorded cases but no deaths. That includes Réunion (344 cases), Vietnam (245 cases) and Malta (241 cases).


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Quite a few of these will know about epidemics from the measles, influenza, smallpox and syphilis we gave them in the 18th and 19th centuries.


Rapid mortality transition of Pacific Islands in the 19th century


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5197612/


Pox in the Pacific: Syphilis and the Hawaiian Islands


https://www.amdigital.co.uk/about/blog/item/pox-in-the-pacific


Some interesting parallels...


Roger


 


BTW - when I was doing some consultancy work in Malawi related to health [1980s] it was reported to me that 80% of prostitutes were at that time HIV positive.

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 14:32:50


We thankfully went on ours last year - and it included Spain and northern Italy. 


I was only saying to the missus yesterday that when this is over, there'll be some great cruise bargains to be had. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

  I’m hoping so!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gooner
06 April 2020 14:49:52

How many positive tests today?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


westv
06 April 2020 14:54:12
No sign of BJ being discharged any time soon.
At least it will be mild!
glenogle
06 April 2020 14:56:51


JFF model goes for a (per constant test) decline in confirmed cases today with yesterday as the peak. So will be interesting to see if the actual number is well above the model line.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think you'll be right that this is the proper peak of cases, but your model may fall behind as increased testing will potentially keep the numbers rising for a longer period or does your model allow for that?

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 

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