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glenogle
06 April 2020 14:58:29


The model is predicting for today:


5120 new confirmed cases


11044 total tests (this is simply to be consistent with the govts 100k by the end of month target)


Note that the peak in confirmed cases is still April 12th but that's only because number of tests are ramped up to 35893 by then.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Doh, just seen this one. Ignore previous


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m aslĀ 
Gavin D
06 April 2020 15:36:00

3,082 new cases

Justin W
06 April 2020 15:39:41

Norman Smith telling R4 PM that he 'suspects' the Prime Minister's condition is considerably more serious than Number 10 is letting on.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Heavy Weather 2013
06 April 2020 15:42:12

As of 9am 6 April, 252,958 tests have concluded, with 13,069 tests on 5 April (excl. Northern Ireland). 208,837 people have been tested of which 51,608 tested positive. As of 5pm on 5 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus 5,373 have died.


Does anyone know what the number of people tested was yesterday?


Update: 439 UK deaths in last 24hrs. With Scotland only reporting 4 deaths in the last 48hrs, I wonder if we are going to see a big spike tomorrow?


 


 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gusty
06 April 2020 15:45:46

Lets hope that we've reached the peak and that tentative signs of improvement in Italy and Spain are mirrored here very soon.


Best wishes to Boris for making a speedy recovery.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Gavin D
06 April 2020 15:47:06

I make it 13,303 tests with 3,802 confirmed as positive 

3 weeks of restrictions starting to filter through?

Bolty
06 April 2020 15:47:11


Norman Smith telling R4 PM that he 'suspects' the Prime Minister's condition is considerably more serious than Number 10 is letting on.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Not good at all!


Losing the Prime Minister could do one of two things I suspect: 1) Give people a kick up the arse and make them realise no-one is safe from this virus, so they obey the lockdown, or 2) Morale drops and people stop caring, and just start ignore the lockdown rules.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Brian Gaze
06 April 2020 15:48:21

Just watched this video posted by J.K. Rowling. It is presented by a Dr who describes a breathing technique which allegedly reduces the chance of developing pneumonia. 


Any views? If it's not authentic or misleading I'll delete my post. 


 


 




Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
06 April 2020 15:49:33

Latest JFF model results.



 


Note I'm still using the variation that increases testing linearly until the end of the month. After about a week I'll change to use the data to come up with trend for testing so I can more robustly predict how testing will change. To be clear, any increase being projected by the model is only a result of testing ramp ups. The model predicted a peak yesterday when you account for testing increase. Provided the blue curve remains below the orange curve that prediction will not have been invalidated.


 


Anyway upshot is this variation model has not performed that well today. It has overestimated the number of cases. Although the 3dayperiodicity variation got it pretty much bang on. I would not be suprised to see a 'big jump day' in a couple of days time. This should not be a major cause for concern though.


 


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
06 April 2020 15:50:11


I make it 13,303 tests with 3,802 confirmed as positive 

3 weeks of restrictions starting to filter through?


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Yesterday positives were ~45% and today ~28%. Are we definitely comparing apples with apples here?


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
06 April 2020 15:52:27

For those that want the '3dayperiodicity' variant of the model. Here it is:



Today was a 'big drop day', though you can see the peridocity has gone a bit out of whack in the few previous days. If it returns I will try and combine it with the testing increase to provide one 'unified model'.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
06 April 2020 15:52:59


Not good at all!


Losing the Prime Minister could do one of two things I suspect: 1) Give people a kick up the arse and make them realise no-one is safe from this virus, so they obey the lockdown, or 2) Morale drops and people stop caring, and just start ignore the lockdown rules.


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


I don't think 2) is much of an option. The lockdown remains massively popular with the public (94% support it and only 3% opposes it).

Brian Gaze
06 April 2020 15:53:43


Norman Smith telling R4 PM that he 'suspects' the Prime Minister's condition is considerably more serious than Number 10 is letting on.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Well the CT, ECG and blood tests would have taken a few hours yesterday. If they're keeping him in tonight there is clearly a degree of concern.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
06 April 2020 15:58:01


Just watched this video posted by J.K. Rowling. It is presented by a Dr who describes a breathing technique which allegedly reduces the chance of developing pneumonia. 


Any views? If it's not authentic or misleading I'll delete my post. 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I am no expert, but why not? 

Quantum
06 April 2020 15:58:19

If anything today's figure is so low compared to what I'm expecting that I am actually considering adjusting my model parameters to bring it down a little. Will wait to see if today was a 'big drop day' before doing that though.


It's one of the worst results for my model in the last couple of weeks, but worst in a good way. Big overestimates are definitely welcome!


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
06 April 2020 15:59:17


 


Come on Gandalf, you were Dr Pangloss back then. I recall being laughed at for suggesting the WHO recommend against people going on cruise ships in the region at the time. Even now, you don't accept that we should have stopped flights from infected regions which I advocated at the time, likewise, I was urging port screening, hence my email to my MP on 7th February which elicited the most complacent response imaginable from the Home Office.


We should have closed borders to infected regions and had port screening in place right from early February - that is the only environment in which quarantine and contact tracing can possibly be effective.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Can you change the record?  This comment is actually completely bonkers since I was explaining why I didn't think we'd have a problem and why I was fairly relaxed; yet you decide to go back down the same tedious rabbit hole for the thousandth time.


As you seem unable to avoid the petty name calling I feel obliged to point out that you were indeed behaving like a headless chicken back in January, demanding ludicrous, unachievable and disproportionate measures. I remember the frequent rants about cruise ships in which you completely failed to grasp the situation.


Still, I suppose we can expect you to keep trotting out this dross ad nauseam. But I will keep putting you back in your box in similar vein.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
06 April 2020 16:03:13

17.9K patients are now in hospital.


I thought the update on the PM was very vague. 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
06 April 2020 16:04:22


If anything today's figure is so low compared to what I'm expecting that I am actually considering adjusting my model parameters to bring it down a little. Will wait to see if today was a 'big drop day' before doing that though.


It's one of the worst results for my model in the last couple of weeks, but worst in a good way. Big overestimates are definitely welcome!


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Tests results today were excluding NI - I wonder if that's having an impact?


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gavin D
06 April 2020 16:04:26

Updated chart for daily deaths. 


UK peak remains 708. Total today 439.


 


covid.jpg

xioni2
06 April 2020 16:08:36
Hospital admissions tell the story really. I think we'll exceed 1000 deaths daily.
Gavin D
06 April 2020 16:09:01
East of England hospital admissions up 25% and 7% across GB
Heavy Weather 2013
06 April 2020 16:10:26

Hospital admissions have risen across the UK by 7% and 25% in East England. London has seen a rise for the second successive day.


Also, can anyone confirm. The Midlands line seems to have been correct. I though that dropped at one point as well? 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gavin D
06 April 2020 16:11:18

Italy have reported 3,599 new cases and 636 new deaths.



  • New cases down by 717

  • New deaths up by 111

Gandalf The White
06 April 2020 16:11:24


Just watched this video posted by J.K. Rowling. It is presented by a Dr who describes a breathing technique which allegedly reduces the chance of developing pneumonia. 


Any views? If it's not authentic or misleading I'll delete my post. 


 


 




Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


The recommendation to lay on your front is something I heard from someone dealing with patients in intensive care.


Breathing in more deeply means more oxygen reaches further into the lungs so that would also make sense. I'm not sure that it matters whether the cycle is five or slightly more, as long as you don't hyperventilate - which he mentioned getting the symptoms of in the video.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
06 April 2020 16:13:33

I am not convinced with the updates on the PM.


Today's charts suggest to me that today's data is not complete and will be horrific tomorrow.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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