And the beautiful weather continues  ... hope you are all still safe.

Some curious contrasts between areas on the south coast for confrimed cases per head of population:in round terms 1/3000  for Dorset, Bournemouth, W Sussex & Brighton, but Hampshire and Southampton, geographically separating these areas, at 1 in 1400. Portsmouth intermediate at 1 in 2000.

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To get people to queue up to vote even with social distancing in Wisconsin is outrageous.

 

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Coronavirus: 'Keep cats indoors', vets recommend

 

Veterinary scientists have recommended cat owners keep their pets indoors to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52204534

 

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Good.

The last thing you need at times like this is coronavirus-afflicted cats taking dumps all over the place - but I doubt many owners will comply.

(It's like a grim sweepstakes whenever I mow the lawn - how many cat turds will there be. Bonus points if I actually manage to avoid treading in the filthy stuff. It's always pissed me off that people have these "pets" and let them out to take dumps wherever they like... the answer is always "oh, it's their nature to roam". Well, yes, it's in dogs' natures to form packs and kill things, but we don't let them do that... nor should we with cats. Then again, a quarter of the country has that brain parasite, transmitted by cats, which in mice at least attracts them to cats!)

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Also more likely to live in high density dwellings.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/apr/08/coronavirus-100-days-that-changed-the-world?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other 

A genuinely interesting read.

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On the topic of obesity, on the BBC News last night, it was revealed that 73% of those in ICU for this virus have a BMI of 25 or greater.

Also, some of us have criticised the WHO from the outset - I stated months ago that "the WHO has been behind the curve" and I maintain that was the case, despite being shouted down by some. On this topic I agree with Trump:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52209954

"During a press conference on Tuesday, Mr Trump said he was reluctant to discuss further but the US might be on track for fewer deaths than projected. 

...

During the briefing, he also attacked the World Health Organization (WHO), saying it had issued bad advice and had been too focused on China.

"The WHO really blew it. For some reason, funded largely by the United States, yet very China centric," he said.

He also said the US would be withholding money meant for the WHO."

The exemplar and example from the outset was Taiwan, but because of China it is shunned and ignored by the WHO.

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The anger builds here, Several second homes in the Lelant area 3 miles from St Ives have over the last couple of days become full with several cars parked outside. 
My mother in law is 83 with several under lying health conditions, one of the second homes is next door to her. 
We only have one main hospital down here which seems to be constantly on what used to be called black alert. If they are infected they will be exercising on the beach and shopping in the local supermarket, spreading the infection.

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Could also be that darker skin absorbs less vitamin D from sunlight, hence immune systems would be lower especially during winter months. 

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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/help-us-find-new-antibody-test-for-coronavirus-ministers-tell-industry-6h6sxm3fl

"Ministers are preparing to issue a rallying cry to British industry to build a home antibody test that would help exit the lockdown, The Times has learnt.

Biotech companies will be asked to work together to produce a finger-prick testing kit accurate enough to be sent to millions of homes in an echo of the effort by manufacturing companies to build more ventilators.

Antibody tests that identify people who have recovered from coronavirus are regarded as a key long-term route out of the restrictions. The Times revealed this week that none of the products ordered and evaluated by the government had proven good enough to use in mass testing.

..."

The right approach - no point importing junk from China - there is only one reliable test at the moment, the one being run at Porton Down - but it is time consuming and requires laboratory equipment.

 

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That’s a really article because of the timeline it gives.

in particular it shows how much the Chinese authorities delayed taking action and misunderstood/misrepresented what was happening. But it also puts into context why other countries were slow to react and how the virus had already spread by mid-January.

 

Monday 13th January:

The Chinese government says there is not yet clear evidence of human-to-human transmission, including any signs of medical professionals becoming sick. The official message is echoed by the WHO, which issues a news release saying it is reassured of the quality of the Chinese government’s response.

A committee of infectious disease specialists that goes by the acronym Nervtag meets in London to discuss the virus, and deems that the risk to the UK is “very low, but warrants investigation and testing”.

Monday 20th January:

The conclusion is clear. “We can say it is certain that it is a human-to-human transmission phenomenon,” Zhong says.

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You wouldn't be saying that about your wolves, Darren 

Just saying...

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Absolutely agree. 

It also shows how quickly Taiwan reacted. 

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I wouldn't, as the wolves aren't left to roam free and don't poop in people's gardens. They also don't carry a brain parasite which infects a quarter of the country.

(There are of course wild foxes around, but I've never seen one in my garden - the nearest I've seen was in a field a few miles away. Even then, they're wild animals, not "pets".)

In other news, ice-cream vans are a hot issue around here right now. Seems that a few of them are going round selling their wares, much to the dismay of most (including the councillors). It's not actually illegal for them to do so, apparently.

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I know we read stories like this one every day from country x, y or z but this seems to have some credibility. Key takeouts:

1) Blood based (rather than saliva) antibody testing has started locally in Italy

2) Immunity is thought to last months rather than years 

Italy puts faith in coronavirus antibody test to get country back to work

Two Italian regions are testing doctors and nurses for coronavirus antibodies in an effort to build up an army of medical staff with immunity to work in the most infected isolation wards.

The plan for “immunity licences” in the regions of Veneto and Emilia-Romagna in the north was announced as the government plans a national roll-out of antibody testing to get people back to work.

“We got up the courage to go first because this is so important,” said Mario Plebani, of the University of Padua, who is managing testing in Veneto

While saliva can be tested to see if a subject has the virus, blood testing can discover if someone has had it and has developed antibodies to stop it returning. Rome sees immunity testing as key to getting workers back to essential industries, possibly on Tuesday.

....

Rather than using portable kits that are said to lack accuracy, Veneto is taking blood samples to a laboratory for testing. “We are still experimenting,” he said. “Since we know that many doctors have been infected, if this test shows they have no antibodies we will know it’s not accurate.”

The blood test identifies two types of antibody, one which reveals contact with the virus and a second showing if the body has built a defence against it. “Our tests show the second appears 12 days after the first symptoms and remains strong for 35 days. After that we don’t know,” Professor Plebani said.

....

In Emilia-Romagna, the authorities started testing doctors and nurses and care home staff for antibodies on Monday and plan to check up to 100,000 in 15 days. “We tested it in one town and it works,” a spokesman said.

....

The government is “within hours” of selecting the kit it wants to use for nationwide testing, but is being more “prudent” than the regional governors who have jumped first, said Walter Ricciardi, a member of the World Health Organisation’s executive board who is advising Italy. “We are studying this carefully so we don’t pick a set-up which gives false results,” he said. “We now think one does acquire immunity after getting the virus, but not permanently. We are probably talking about months rather than years.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/italy-puts-faith-in-coronavirus-antibody-test-to-get-country-back-to-work-q9qhvbmw0

 

 

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One consequence of the lockdown in India.

https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/audio/himalayas-visible-for-first-time-in-30-years-as-pollution-levels-in-india-drop

 

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Yes - China is culpable. I realise that this is a highly polarising view but the Communist Party's behaviour in January was absolutely reckless. China is responsible for this disaster but I have no doubt that no government will say so for fear of upsetting that abominable regime. 

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^^ if immunity is only for a few months, then surely that scuppers the idea of a vaccine?

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Western apologists for China don't understand how power politics work - China is the new imperialist power and they have been very successful at subverting many third countries and then buying massive influence with the WHO and the UN on the back of that. Those who decry the West are lemmings, securing a bleak future - China is a force to be reckoned with.

Anyhow, very interesting Wiki read here on South Korea and its handling of the epidemic:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea

Worth reading in full.

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Interesting. I thought we were the enterprising free-traders who got all the deals?

 

After Merkel call with Xi in early April, Germany given priority access to Chinese SOE ("Moheco") producing masks & other PPE "with high quality & supply security", @sz reports. Lufthansa organizes air transport to Germany. https://t.co/t9p0iN2l4o

— Thorsten Benner (@thorstenbenner) April 7, 2020

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Phone the police and report? I wouldn't normally advocate being a grass but this is a truly exceptional circumstance where lives could literally be at stake. 

That aside I'm a little reluctant to use the term 'second homes' in a negative way.  If you own any property you pay for it including the rates and utilities. Those folk are probably making a contribution to local services which resident locals avail of throughout the year.

If I had an alternative property I'd like to think I'd be responsible enough not to use it at the moment however to reduce the risk of importing infection. Perhaps a simple way round this is to introduce a 10 mile radius limit on travel from your primary residence. This should for most - allow access to a shopping facility for food and address the problem of folk travelling long distances to their alternative properties. Exceptions could be made on a case by case basis for those who live particularly remotely. 

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It's worth making the point that most men in the UK are either overweight or obese and therefore the correlation may not be as strong as it first appears. (Just to reiterate I'm not in the overweight or obese categories and not saying this to make myself feel better)

According to the Global Burden of Disease Study published in 2013, the United Kingdom had proportionately more obese and overweight adults than anywhere in western Europe with the exception of Iceland and Malta. Using data from 1980 to 2013, in the UK 66.6% of men and 52.7% of women were found to be either overweight or obese.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

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The suggestion that immunity is only for a few months is (and I will be polite) premature. The evidence will not be available to support such an assertion, unless I am missing something.

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Yes, unless you have access to a (forwards) time machine, I can't see how anyone could be sure that immunity only lasts a few months.

 

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Interesting article in the Daily Mail this morning about countries which in the past had mass immunisation of the BCG vaccine (for TB) have death rates for COV-ID19 up to six times lower than those who didn't have this. Speculation is that one of the 'off -target' benefits is that it primes the immune system early on in life to better deal with a range of respiratory infections.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8197247/Coronavirus-death-rate-SIX-TIMES-lower-countries-use-BCG-vaccine.html 

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