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Ulric
10 April 2020 09:53:31


 


Interesting piece, but it’s author is rabid right winger Fraser Nelson whose only interest is the economy.


Also don’t forget, these ‘models’ also predicted 400,000 deaths if no lockdown was applied.


Originally Posted by: John p 


That's exactly why they want the lockdown relaxed.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Rob K
10 April 2020 10:04:08


No but plenty of others do.  Hubby out for shopping yesterday, and got challenged for buying Jelly Babies! They are the “go to” for hypos of which I have had a bit more than usual lately, and needed some more as a just in case measure rather than him having to call 999. I’m afraid his reply is not quotable. He hates shopping anyway and this was the last straw! 


Originally Posted by: chelseagirl 


My wife is Type 1 diabetic so we also have to have such items around. We’ve certainly been buying the normal weekly shop (as far as available) including snacks, sweets, beer etc and I’m not aware of anyone being challenged for doing so in this area. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 10:06:23

Fail link ahead but the quoted research comes from Cambridge University. Not sure what the implications for either organic herd immunity or vaccine are. 


 


There are THREE distinct strains of the novel coronavirus in the world and while China's epidemic was driven by an early mutation that quickly spread in the UK, the US is suffering from an original variation



Type A is closest to the one found in bats and pangolins and has two sub-clusters
One sub-cluster linked to Wuhan and the other is common in US and Australia
Type B is derived from type A and has become the most prevalent in Wuhan
Type C is the 'daughter' of type B and was spread to Europe via Singapore


Three types of the deadly coronavirus are spreading around the world - and the US is being rocked by the original strain from China.


Cambridge University researchers mapped the genetic history of the infection from December to March and found three distinct, but closely related, variants.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8204255/There-THREE-separate-types-coronavirus.html


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 April 2020 10:12:24


Fail link ahead but the quoted research comes from Cambridge University. Not sure what the implications for either organic herd immunity or vaccine are. 


 


There are THREE distinct strains of the novel coronavirus in the world and while China's epidemic was driven by an early mutation that quickly spread in the UK, the US is suffering from an original variation


 


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


A distinction without a difference, until we know whether personal immunity developed in response to one strain confers resistance to the other two?

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gooner
10 April 2020 10:12:52

The relaxing of measures is a bloody nightmare - lots of points re age and geographical location , so I'm guessing trading could come back into play in the chosen areas if not then no point really  , but if shops are allowed to open that will create its own problems depending on the age criteria chosen by the government , most managers in shops are more senior , so what happens there?


Good luck trying to come to come up with a solution 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


bowser
10 April 2020 10:23:46


 


If the world boycott's China's goods, have sanctions etc, close borders to them, that will hit them where it hurts. They will have so much stock they can't sell they will drown in it. Yes agree about working together now. The rest of the world can develop and build the things China produces.


China needs the rest of the world to survive as well. We need a response from them which truly helps out. They should not bite off the hand that feeds them. If the world is in recession too long, they get hit too!


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


The problem is trust. I think trust in the CCP regime has been shattered and rightly so.

noodle doodle
10 April 2020 10:24:04


 


Interesting piece, but it’s author is rabid right winger Fraser Nelson whose only interest is the economy.


Also don’t forget, these ‘models’ also predicted 400,000 deaths if no lockdown was applied.


Originally Posted by: John p 


 


Indeed, the author is comparing deaths from lockdown with deaths from covid during lockdown, rather than adding those two figures together and comparing them with the unrestricted covid death projections (up to 500,000 by some estimates)


The article author is either stupid or thinks his readers are stupid. And let's not rule out the possibility of both being true.

Ulric
10 April 2020 10:27:42


The relaxing of measures is a bloody nightmare - lots of points re age and geographical location , so I'm guessing trading could come back into play in the chosen areas if not then no point really  , but if shops are allowed to open that will create its own problems depending on the age criteria chosen by the government , most managers in shops are more senior , so what happens there?


Good luck trying to come to come up with a solution 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I don't see how a selective relaxation could be policed. We don't have the resources or systems to control it.


It has to apply to everyone or no one.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
John p
10 April 2020 10:32:10


Fail link ahead but the quoted research comes from Cambridge University. Not sure what the implications for either organic herd immunity or vaccine are. 


 


There are THREE distinct strains of the novel coronavirus in the world and while China's epidemic was driven by an early mutation that quickly spread in the UK, the US is suffering from an original variation



Type A is closest to the one found in bats and pangolins and has two sub-clusters
One sub-cluster linked to Wuhan and the other is common in US and Australia
Type B is derived from type A and has become the most prevalent in Wuhan
Type C is the 'daughter' of type B and was spread to Europe via Singapore


Three types of the deadly coronavirus are spreading around the world - and the US is being rocked by the original strain from China.


Cambridge University researchers mapped the genetic history of the infection from December to March and found three distinct, but closely related, variants.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8204255/There-THREE-separate-types-coronavirus.html


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Didn't the article Darren linked to say the cases in NYC had been directly traced back to the UK?  

Camberley, Surrey
doctormog
10 April 2020 10:33:05


Fail link ahead but the quoted research comes from Cambridge University. Not sure what the implications for either organic herd immunity or vaccine are. 


 


There are THREE distinct strains of the novel coronavirus in the world and while China's epidemic was driven by an early mutation that quickly spread in the UK, the US is suffering from an original variation



Type A is closest to the one found in bats and pangolins and has two sub-clusters
One sub-cluster linked to Wuhan and the other is common in US and Australia
Type B is derived from type A and has become the most prevalent in Wuhan
Type C is the 'daughter' of type B and was spread to Europe via Singapore


Three types of the deadly coronavirus are spreading around the world - and the US is being rocked by the original strain from China.


Cambridge University researchers mapped the genetic history of the infection from December to March and found three distinct, but closely related, variants.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8204255/There-THREE-separate-types-coronavirus.html


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Like many other areas of science the field of phylogenetics is complicated (moreso than the Daily Mail would imply unsurprisingly). 


What conclusions can currently be drawn in terms of vaccines and pathology of the virus from the mutations which have occurred beyond looking at changes in amino acids? In isolation not many, but what it does give is more information of the level  of mutation and the pattern of spread. 


This is probably the most useful paragraph from the study:


The described core mutations have been confirmed by a variety of contributing laboratories and sequencing platforms and can be considered reliable. The phylogeographic patterns in the network are potentially affected by distinctive migratory histories, founder events, and sample size. Nevertheless, it would be prudent to consider the possibility that mutational variants might modulate the clinical presentation and spread of the disease. The phylogenetic classification provided here may be used to rule out or confirm such effects when evaluating clinical and epidemiological outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and when designing treatment and, eventually, vaccines.”


https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117 


Piece by piece the jigsaw is being built but a bit like (and pardon the analogy) Catchphrase we need to unveil a few more squares before we can guess the full picture. It’s not just the virus that is evolving but also our understanding of it and indeed probably the entire field.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Bugglesgate
10 April 2020 10:33:46


 


I don't see how a selective relaxation could be policed. We don't have the resources or systems to control it.


It has to apply to everyone or no one.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


 


Yes, this is my view  as well.


Regional lock-downs, won't work in the   UK, we are too densely populated. .  People will just migrate a few miles to an area with laxer  arrangements and what happens in a  company when all your apprentices  and trainees can go back to work  but the line  managers and  department heads  can't ?.

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Roger Parsons
10 April 2020 10:35:44


 


Re. Valance he did say time and time again that at this stage you cannot put a number or timeframe on this situation. However people want the situation to be quantified regardless of the fact the data and evidence for that are not present.


Watch any interview and you will see the medics and scientists pushed again and again to give impossible numbers and timings. The smallest sniff of any reply will be plastered over the news as an “expert claims...”.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Quite right DrM. They choose their words with caution and are constantly misunderstood and misrepresented. The point is "nobody knows" - yet. Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 10:35:45


 


 


Yes, this is my view  as well.


Regional lock-downs, won't work in the   UK, we are too densely populated. .  People will just migrate a few miles to an area with laxer  arrangements and what happens in a  company when all your apprentices  and trainees can go back to work  but the line  managers and  department heads  can't ?.


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Agreed, equally people don’t always work where they live.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ulric
10 April 2020 10:41:32
Go here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?#countries 

Sort the list by Tot cases/1m population.

What connects the countries that float to the top of the list?

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 10:45:05


 


Exactly right.


Getting all worked up over China (while ignoring that we've been spreading it like wildfire, as per that US/Tele story) won't achieve anything.


 


I suspect they will officially ban them, but like cock-fighting, hare-coursing etc in this country it'll move underground.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


That seems to overlook the fact that if China had responded quickly it may not have reached the UK or anywhere else and certainly neither as quickly nor in such numbers.


Blaming the U.K. is again to being in a car crash where the buy behind you pushes you into the car in front: that's quite obviously not your fault.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 April 2020 10:45:51


 


Re. Valance he did say time and time again that at this stage you cannot put a number or timeframe on this situation. However people want the situation to be quantified regardless of the fact the data and evidence for that are not present.


Watch any interview and you will see the medics and scientists pushed again and again to give impossible numbers and timings. The smallest sniff of any reply will be plastered over the news as an “expert claims...”.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I have to say that both Vallance and the CMO have been exceptionally patient in the face of continual press bombardment, both about numbers and timings. I used to look forward to the daily press briefings, but recently I've walked away quite quickly when you just know that journalists are going to start asking the same questions over and over again.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 10:48:31

Go here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?#countries

Sort the list by Tot cases/1m population.

What connects the countries that float to the top of the list?

Originally Posted by: Ulric 


They all have very small populations?

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 10:50:24


I have to say that both Vallance and the CMO have been exceptionally patient in the face of continual press bombardment, both about numbers and timings. I used to look forward to the daily press briefings, but recently I've walked away quite quickly when you just know that journalists are going to start asking the same questions over and over again.


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Agreed.


But it's the same recurring theme that we see in these threads, i.e. a demand for precision and accurate predictions in circumstances where both are next to impossible.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
10 April 2020 10:52:42


 


Agreed.


But it's the same recurring theme that we see in these threads, i.e. a demand for precision and accurate predictions in circumstances where both are next to impossible.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


”Nobody knows” doesn’t make an interesting news story. The journalists must be equally fed up that their editors are pressuring them to come up with numbers when there are none. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bugglesgate
10 April 2020 10:53:45


I have to say that both Vallance and the CMO have been exceptionally patient in the face of continual press bombardment, both about numbers and timings. I used to look forward to the daily press briefings, but recently I've walked away quite quickly when you just know that journalists are going to start asking the same questions over and over again.


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


 


I still tune it for the Govt  /  official statement and stats the tune out  when the journos   start asking the same daft questions every day.


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
speckledjim
10 April 2020 10:54:03

Go here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?#countries

Sort the list by Tot cases/1m population.

What connects the countries that float to the top of the list?

Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Most are African? 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 10:57:51


 


 


Yes, this is my view  as well.


Regional lock-downs, won't work in the   UK, we are too densely populated. .  People will just migrate a few miles to an area with laxer  arrangements and what happens in a  company when all your apprentices  and trainees can go back to work  but the line  managers and  department heads  can't ?.


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


This is a classic of the line that 'I wouldn't be starting from here'.


Just like the arguments over what measures to put in place to try to control the epidemic, the same applies to the exit strategy: there is no right answer; very option will have pluses and minuses.


I still think the 'givens' are that this cannot continue for too many weeks, if only because the level of compliance will start to lessen and because of the economic damage. My guess is that there will have to be measures to continue to protect people in the vulnerable groups but not by leaving them overly restricted.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ulric
10 April 2020 11:01:25


 


They all have very small populations?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


See how  many are islands? This is fascinating.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 11:02:58


 


Most are African? 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


None of the top 100 are in Africa. The first one is Tunisia, then Morocco and Algeria. The first sub-Saharan country is South Africa.


With the usual caveat about the reliability of the data.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 11:05:49


 


See how  many are islands? This is fascinating.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Six in the top 20.


I'm not sure that's statistically significant?

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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