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westv
10 April 2020 13:34:07

> 1000 deaths a day in the week to come?


At least it will be mild!
Gooner
10 April 2020 13:36:13


> 1000 deaths a day in the week to come?


Originally Posted by: westv 


We cant be far off that number next week , beyond that  surely we will see a gradual decline ?


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 13:38:08


> 1000 deaths a day in the week to come?


Originally Posted by: westv 


Who knows. Take a look at this article. 


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-outbreak-peak-could-next-21769853


A paper from Imperial College suggested peak UK deaths on April 5th at around 260. It highlights the limitations of the modelling or the assumptions underlying it. I remember people suggesting a) we'd do better than China because fewer people here smoke b) we'd do better than Italy because the social structure is different, we're less touchy feely and fewer of us live in high density flats. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
10 April 2020 13:38:43
We'll probably get a 1,000+ day at least once next week due to the lack of staff over this weekend to log the deaths
Justin W
10 April 2020 13:40:51

I still think it will hit 1,500 a day before it tails off slowly.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gooner
10 April 2020 13:42:28


I still think it will hit 1,500 a day before it tails off slowly.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I hope your wrong but if that's the case we will sail past the 20,000 number that was suggested weeks ago as being the top number 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 April 2020 13:49:26


 


How much do you think we should pay the States, considering we infected New York and will have caused many deaths as a result? We've not shown any remorse for that either.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/coronavirus-entered-new-york-europe-not-asia-researchers-find/


"One study has found an early case of the virus in the city was in all likelihood indirectly transmitted by an individual who brought it across from Britain.


Geneticists who have traced the initial spread of coronavirus in New York - the US city so far worst hit by the disease - have discovered that the strain of the virus was “practically identical” to that already spreading through Europe."


...


"In one example linked to the UK, researchers at the Grossman School of Medicine traced the case of a Long Island resident with no travel history who tested positive for Covid-19 in early March .


They found that the Long Island patient’s viral genome correlated with that of a strain circulating in Britain. "


Originally Posted by: Retron 

I thought the first case in the US was in mid January?


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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CreweCold
10 April 2020 13:51:33


 


Who knows. Take a look at this article. 


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-outbreak-peak-could-next-21769853


A paper from Imperial College suggested peak UK deaths on April 5th at around 260. It highlights the limitations of the modelling or the assumptions underlying it. I remember people suggesting a) we'd do better than China because fewer people here smoke b) we'd do better than Italy because the social structure is different, we're less touchy feely and fewer of us live in high density flats. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I think we have a higher concentration of thickos though. Our undoing will be the myriad of idiots who didn't take this seriously and still thought it a good idea to go Cheltenham etc. Oh and those that continue to venture out for a packet of crisps and an energy drink.



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Bolty
10 April 2020 13:54:19


 


I think we have a higher concentration of thickos though. Our undoing will be the myriad of idiots who didn't take this seriously and still thought it a good idea to go Cheltenham etc. Oh and those that continue to venture out for a packet of crisps and an energy drink.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


I still wonder how many knobheads will be out and about meeting people this weekend? I'd imagine we may even see a spike in the data in 2-3 weeks time that will attributed to the long Easter weekend. We are well on course to becoming the worst effected country in Europe and maybe second only to the United States worldwide at this rate.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
CreweCold
10 April 2020 13:58:14


 


I still wonder how many knobheads will be out and about meeting people this weekend? I'd imagine we may even see a spike in the data in 2-3 weeks time that will attributed to the long Easter weekend. We are well on course to becoming the worst effected country in Europe and maybe second only to the United States worldwide at this rate.


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


Quite possible.


We live in a country full of half wits who don't like to be told no. It was painfully obvious from the start that we'd see people flout lockdown or not take it seriously. 



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 14:00:32


 But other figures – infections, mortality rates and deaths – are rightly holding the national attention. Phasing out the lockdown needs to be spoken about in terms of lives vs lives. Or, crudely, whether lockdown might end up costing more lives than the virus.



Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, has worried about this from the offset. In meetings he often stresses that a pandemic kills people directly, and indirectly. A smaller economy means a poorer society and less money for the NHS – eventually. But right now, he says, there will be parents avoiding the NHS, not vaccinating their children – so old diseases return. People who feel a lump now may not get it checked out. Cancer treatment is curtailed. Therapy is abandoned.

Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


LOL


I said this yesterday but was attacked by Doc and others for spreading fake news and threatened with deletion!


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 April 2020 14:02:50

A couple of days ago, based on the graphs that Gavin has been posting, I thought we would breach the 1000 mark by now.


As I have no claim to any great scientific knowledge and only looking only at the daily plots, I'm encouraged. 


The next few days data will almost certainly be flawed, so I would expect a big uptick around Tuesday/Wednesday next week.


As an aside a big thank you to Gavin D for keeping us all up to date very quickly.   


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 14:04:39

From the BBC ticker:
"Russia has recorded its biggest daily increase in infections, with 1,786 new cases and 18 deaths, bringing the total to 94. Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin says the city is "at the foothills" of the disease, not the peak".

While they suggest things will get worse, IF TRUE quite surprised on these low rates so far for Russia bearing in mind there are a lot of world travellers here. Wonder what Putin's reaction will be when thousands of his countrymen eventually succumb to this.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


The real total is probably closer to 94,000!


We also don't know what is happening in Pakistan and India. Must be rampant there, but death is very much a part of life for the poor in these countries, so we may never know the actual number


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 14:07:11


 


A distinction without a difference, until we know whether personal immunity developed in response to one strain confers resistance to the other two?


Originally Posted by: DEW 


The 64 million dollar question


As Fairweather mentioned, worth watching the two Horizon docs. Available on iplayer


Brilliant stuff and a reminder of just how amazing the BBC can be - shows like this would never be made by the private sector


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Northern Sky
10 April 2020 14:07:43

Leeds legend Norman 'bites yer legs' Hunter in hospital with coronavirus  


An absolute hero of mine, an incredible footballer and by all accounts a fantastic bloke as well. I sometimes see him out and about in Horsforth and his grandson goes to school with my son. Really hope he can battle through.

The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 14:12:20


 


Yes my neighbour recovered three weeks ago but still has breathing difficulties. She has been told this may be permanent.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Was she on a ventilator or just had the Boris treatment?


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Phil G
10 April 2020 14:12:46
As already discussed, is lockdown worth it?
From the BBC ticker:

"South Korean health authorities say 91 people thought recovered after contracting coronavirus have tested positive for the disease again.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said on Friday it was not clear why the patients had tested positive for a second time".
Lionel Hutz
10 April 2020 14:15:51


Leeds legend Norman 'bites yer legs' Hunter in hospital with coronavirus  


An absolute hero of mine, an incredible footballer and by all accounts a fantastic bloke as well. I sometimes see him out and about in Horsforth and his grandson goes to school with my son. Really hope he can battle through.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


👍👍


I'm sorry to hear that and I really hope he makes it. And that's from a Millwall fan so that'll tell you what strange times we're living in 😉


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



CreweCold
10 April 2020 14:16:31

As already discussed, is lockdown worth it?
From the BBC ticker:

"South Korean health authorities say 91 people thought recovered after contracting coronavirus have tested positive for the disease again.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said on Friday it was not clear why the patients had tested positive for a second time".

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


If it's possible to become reinfected with this, we're on a hiding to nothing.


Our only hope would be for it to weaken as it mutates and become annoying like a common cold.



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 April 2020 14:17:16


Of the 866 deaths in England announced today



  • 117 on April 9th - Yesterday

  • 720 between April 1st and April 8th

  • 29 in March including 1 on March 5th


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

There is quite a backlog of numbers there and it gives no real indication of whether the death rate is climbing or not.  What we need for a clearer view is a graph showing how many deaths actually occurred each day, not when they were reported or confirmed. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
doctormog
10 April 2020 14:19:13


 


LOL


I said this yesterday but was attacked by Doc and others for spreading fake news and threatened with deletion!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


If you’re not bright enough to spot the difference between this and what you actually said there is little point in me replying.


That aside there is nothing, absolutely nothing, amusing about your post.


The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 14:19:56


 


Horrific. Must be approaching the worst day recorded in Italy?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

-


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 14:23:16

As already discussed, is lockdown worth it?
From the BBC ticker:

"South Korean health authorities say 91 people thought recovered after contracting coronavirus have tested positive for the disease again.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said on Friday it was not clear why the patients had tested positive for a second time".

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


As Brian mentioned earlier, there are 3 strains, but we don't know if said patients have some level of immunity already. Hopefully they do otherwise we are totally screwed


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
10 April 2020 14:24:36


 


I think we have a higher concentration of thickos though. Our undoing will be the myriad of idiots who didn't take this seriously and still thought it a good idea to go Cheltenham etc. Oh and those that continue to venture out for a packet of crisps and an energy drink.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


Yes but it wasn't considered a threat by many , hence why 3,000 Spaniards went to Anfield …………...money money money 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 14:25:39


I thought the first case in the US was in mid January?


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Yes, in a Seattle care home


But perhaps this was a different strain


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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