Talking about smoking and SD this morning on radio apparently the exhaled cigarette  smoke is not the issue with SD but it is if the smoker coughs within the exhaled cigarette smoke how many smokers don’t cough?

Surely the important thing is whether they cover their mouths when coughing.

I read the posts earlier on regarding the number of real cases (not just reported cases) as a percent of population. It really would be nice to know this although I understand how difficult it is to find out, may of minor note that with the number of cases having now gone up c. 5,000 to c. 74,000, and the UK population being 66 million, this means that we have gone just over 0.1% of the population having officially tested positive. We all know that there are more cases than officially reported and that it is generally only the hospitalisations which are getting tested rather than the more minor/asymptomatic cases - if what I have read is true then 1% of the population having tested positive seems believeable. A figure of, say, 10% rather less so unless there are a lot more asymptomatic cases than are currently thought. This is all just me speculating but just thought it may be of some interest.

Regarding people thinking they have it and testing negative. I think that most bugs will cover some of the common covid-19 symptoms and, with the number of deaths being reported, people will likely be worried that they have covid-19 whereas normally they may just carry on with their everyday life and not really think twice about their slight temperature/cough. One of my housemates told us she had mild symptoms of covid-19 but it turned out to be hay fever...

How much smoke do they stop if a cough is present after exhaled and how many smokers will adapt to this new condition 

This is something you and I exchanged comments about yesterday. This does confirm the random nature of mutations and from that the chance of strains that are more dangerous to their host.

What I found fascinating was the evidence that evolutionary forces work to optimise the virus for the dominant form of host from region to region.

I've smoked on and off for 12 years and never had a smokers cough.

Then again I've never really smoked more than 10 a day, some people get through 30.

An excellent article and one which should fill us all with a bit more hope. It explains that the mutations, although numerous, are slower than usually seen with RNA viruses and thus a vaccine should be achieveable.

It also mentions that in the case of SARS, antibodies are present for around 2 years, but even after that a memory is retained within the cells of our bodies. Hopefully the same will apply to this close relation of SARS!

Surely if a strain has been evident from September, it backs up the suggestion of a strain having worked through the UK in December, just like people have speculated. It could be that mutation has made it more lethal.

The 980 deaths is not the true figure for yesterday, as Gavin has said several times already. I don't see why it merits all this attention when it's giving a completely false picture?

Yes, that occurred to me as well. Even if it happened to be in late October rather than September, that's still plenty of time for the virus to make its way around the planet. 

All speculation, of course, and we'll never know for certain.

Indeed, I guess the burning question is if you had one say type B are you done or are further mutations making it more likely cause for concern 

Hi Peter

I guess it is entirely possible that the disease was in existence and was circulating in China for some time before anyone there first realised that something was seriously wrong.

On the BBC news channel the other day, newsreader Carrie Gracie did an interview with a guy who I think is in his 30s and lives and works as an English teacher in Wuhan. He recalled feeling unwell back in late November/early December but wasn't seriously so as far as I remember him saying. He mentioned that some time afterwards, he had the swab test for Covid-19 which revealed he had been infected with the virus. As far as is know, he was the first person from the UK living anywhere in the world who tested positive for the virus.

It could well be that the virus was in existence and was being transmitted from person to person in China some time before that country reached crisis point back in December & January.

That also means that more people probably died on previously recorded dates as they weren’t picked up at the time.  It’s possible less than 980 died yesterday, but equally possible more did. 
The whole thing is farcical. I’d not be surprised if circa 500 are reported tomorrow and the media predicting we’ve passed the worst!

JFF model update:

There are some number problems again. Just going to use the daily figures as cumulatives do not add up. Anyway for 13543 people tested:

Model prediction: 4887

Actual: 5706

So quite a big deviation from the model today, also first time the model has significantly underestimated the number of confirmed cases. On the plus side testing has also gone up more than expected so will incoperate that into future projections.

Not going to change any parameters yet, this is only a one off. Although it is the first figure I've been concerned about. Quite a bit higher than I expected.

Never used to cough. Now, 10 years on, every time I have a cold, I get a cough. 

I know absolutely madness , what was Matt H's answer to holding meetings that don't follow the 2 metre rule??

Google and Apple plan to release a contact tracing API by mid may. Good news IMO. It also makes a nonsense of the UK govt / NHS ambition to have their own app by the end of this month. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52246319

There has been speculation about that among some of my friends on Facebook too lately. A girl whom I knew at primary and secondary school recently recounted how she felt not great for a number of days during the festive season with 'flu type symptoms. This was, to the best of my recollection, at least a couple of weeks before any of the UK media first reported the existence of the disease in China.

Have you considered the impact of tests on NHS workers? Apparently 80% of them are coming back negative. I provided a link earlier today.

Even more speculation, and something I've thought about, could the wide range of effects of this virus (from nothing more than a slight temperature to death) hinge on previous exposure to the original pathogen? Maybe it isn't so much pot luck but more about partial immunity and of course comorbidities.