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Lionel Hutz
14 April 2020 08:42:29


Morning all.


Some of you may remember the Twitter thread written by the historian Dr Elaine Doyle, basically slamming the UK response and comparing it to Ireland.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/experts-divided-comparison-uk-ireland-coronavirus-record?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


A good critique of it here. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Interesting piece. On balance, we probably have dealt with it a little better than the UK in my opinion. However, there is a degree of almost smugness from some here which is quite unwarranted. I would say that one of the biggest differences is that our political class was fairly unanimous from an early date about the seriousness of the crisis. Yours was much less clear in its message until a little later in the crisis. The article quite correctly points out that we have one or two significant advantages over you in terms of our younger population and more rural dwellers.

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



roadrunnerajn
14 April 2020 08:43:41

Listening to LBC this morning one of the minsters being interviewed was asked about PPE her reply was that there are 300,000,000 pieces of kit....mmmm one glove add another glove add one over shoe etc.

One way to spin it I suppose.

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Ulric
14 April 2020 08:45:00


 


I have a periscope


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mullard_Radio_Astronomy_Observatory



 

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
westv
14 April 2020 08:46:13


 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mullard_Radio_Astronomy_Observatory


 


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Can it view Uranus?

At least it will be mild!
Brian Gaze
14 April 2020 08:46:23


Listening to LBC this morning one of the minsters being interviewed was asked about PPE her reply was that there are 300,000,000 pieces of kit....mmmm one glove add another glove add one over shoe etc.

One way to spin it I suppose.


Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 


I heard they are counting each glove finger as one piece of kit.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
The Beast from the East
14 April 2020 08:46:23


 


A fellow university student had a brilliant holiday job for his local water company. They gave him an air rifle and he spent the day popping "tied" condoms that had begun to self-inflate and block the sewage farm filter[s].


It almost beats my first summer job digging our a seaside cafe that was being constantly buried by a sand dune - we had use of the owners series 2 landrover! And we got paid for it! We'd have paid him!  Ah - those 60s days...


 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Sounds like a farm I'd love to work at. Farm girls on horseback have always turned me on


I would love to have been around in the 60s. Free love etc. Sounds like a much happier more positive era, though the 70s were grim. I only remember the 80s 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
warrenb
14 April 2020 08:46:32
I just have a feeling that a lot of these countries are easing too early. I am of the opinion that herd immunity is the way forward here, but in a controlled manner. Knowing human nature, an easing of restrictions will be a recipe for an early wave 2 due to people relaxing too much. We need to drip feed this through the population by careful and controlled exposure, and yes, we will loose a lot of people and it will be horrible, but this virus is with us for years to come and we just can't immunise everybody every year, as it will then remain the elephant in the room sitting on all our shoulders for a very long time.
Tonbridge 45m 
John p
14 April 2020 08:47:22


This is worrying. Indications that a second wave hits very quickly after lockdown measures are eased. Suggests we may have to keep the economy closed until either an effective treatment or vaccine becomes available. The alternative could be to accept (in the UK) 500,000 more deaths.


Hokkaido re-declares state of emergency after second wave


It looks like Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido is starting to experience exactly what many epidemiologists had predicted; after the successful suppression of an initial outbreak, the relaxing of restrictions has led to a second wave.


Hokkaido was the first place in Japan to be hit badly by the virus. In mid-February the governor declared a state of emergency, schools were closed and people were urged to stay at home. The shutdown hit in the middle of the ski-season, the worst possible time. I was there myself at the beginning of March and the ski resorts were completely deserted. But it worked, and by the middle of March the infection rate had fallen to a handful of infections a day.


At the end of March schools re-opened and life in Hokkaido began to return to some sort of normality. But now just two weeks later a new state of emergency has been declared. By the end of last week new infections had climbed to between 15 and 20 a day which is higher than during the first wave in February. Schools have again been closed and people asked to stay at home.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52275989


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I’ve been trying to make this point for ages. As soon  as lockdown is lifted, of course the outbreak will lift off once again. 
Why wouldn’t it?

Camberley, Surrey
The Beast from the East
14 April 2020 08:50:13


 


Can it view Uranus?


Originally Posted by: westv 


Not visible with the naked eye, though apparently you can see Saturn and Jupiter in the early hours but I never get up in time!


Sorry, OT!


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
14 April 2020 08:53:29


 


I’ve been trying to make this point for ages. As soon  as lockdown is lifted, of course the outbreak will lift off once again. 
Why wouldn’t it?


Originally Posted by: John p 


If many of us have already had it, but not realised, then I suppose it wouldnt


The vaccine may not even be given out for free, so a lot of poorer people wont bother to get it and will have to develop their own immunity


 


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Ulric
14 April 2020 08:53:54


I’ve been trying to make this point for ages. As soon  as lockdown is lifted, of course the outbreak will lift off once again. 
Why wouldn’t it?


Originally Posted by: John p 


I think you are correct. This is going to be a feature of all our lives for a very long time.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Rob K
14 April 2020 08:55:22


 I am always very careful and check my manhole once a month


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes that kitchen roll can be quite abrasive 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
14 April 2020 08:56:25

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
14 April 2020 08:57:22


This is worrying. Indications that a second wave hits very quickly after lockdown measures are eased. Suggests we may have to keep the economy closed until either an effective treatment or vaccine becomes available. The alternative could be to accept (in the UK) 500,000 more deaths.


Hokkaido re-declares state of emergency after second wave


It looks like Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido is starting to experience exactly what many epidemiologists had predicted; after the successful suppression of an initial outbreak, the relaxing of restrictions has led to a second wave.


Hokkaido was the first place in Japan to be hit badly by the virus. In mid-February the governor declared a state of emergency, schools were closed and people were urged to stay at home. The shutdown hit in the middle of the ski-season, the worst possible time. I was there myself at the beginning of March and the ski resorts were completely deserted. But it worked, and by the middle of March the infection rate had fallen to a handful of infections a day.


At the end of March schools re-opened and life in Hokkaido began to return to some sort of normality. But now just two weeks later a new state of emergency has been declared. By the end of last week new infections had climbed to between 15 and 20 a day which is higher than during the first wave in February. Schools have again been closed and people asked to stay at home.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52275989


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


100% inevitable and predictable. The characteristics of SARS-Cov2 don't alter, so any moves that increase social interaction must come with a risk that will rise exponentially the more the restrictions are eased.


The only way out is with significantly greater testing and continuing constraints until we have a vaccine. If an effective vaccine can't be found then we really are in trouble.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
14 April 2020 08:57:54

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
14 April 2020 09:02:28




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I caught a few minutes of that live last night on BBC News24, until I got bored with Trump's behaviour.


There's a video circulating on Twitter showing how Trump's position shifted from "it's a Democrat hoax" through "just a few cases, it'll soon be gone" on to "I always knew it was going to become a pandemic."


đŸ™„

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ulric
14 April 2020 09:03:01
Rolling 7 day average:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=ITA+ESP+USA+GBR+BEL+FRA+DEU 

Belgium appears to behave more like a city than a country. Due to small population size?
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Maunder Minimum
14 April 2020 09:05:28


 


100% inevitable and predictable. The characteristics of SARS-Cov2 don't alter, so any moves that increase social interaction must come with a risk that will rise exponentially the more the restrictions are eased.


The only way out is with significantly greater testing and continuing constraints until we have a vaccine. If an effective vaccine can't be found then we really are in trouble.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I am very optimistic that the miracle of modern science will find a viable vaccine in due course. However, if it does not, then we will have to suffer what our forebears had to put up with during plagues and pandemics - accept that up to 10% of the population dies whilst those who don't die, build up sufficient immunity over time to coexist with the virus.


A lockdown only works if it can act quickly enough to stop the spread of the contagion without destroying commerce - no lockdown can continue indefinitely, since the societal and human costs of the lockdown would in the end be worse than allowing the contagion to run its course.


 

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
14 April 2020 09:05:44

Rolling 7 day average:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=ITA+ESP+USA+GBR+BEL+FRA+DEU

Belgium appears to behave more like a city than a country. Due to small population size?


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


They are including deaths in the community and care homes. France is doing the same.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
14 April 2020 09:09:45


 


They are including deaths in the community and care homes. France is doing the same.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Even allowing for that, Belgium is on a crazy trajectory. The problem with including care homes is determining cause of death. Did someone die because of corona-virus or for some other reason? Perhaps the only way to handle that issue is via statistical analysis - how many more are dying now than would be the case in a normal April?

New world order coming.
John p
14 April 2020 09:12:02
ONS weekly Covid19uk death data up to 3/4 (2 weeks ago) just announced is scary.
Highest weekly total since records began in 2005. 6000 higher than seasonal average. MUCH worse than flu. Order of magnitude increase in care home deaths.
All BEFORE sharp rise in hospital deaths.
Camberley, Surrey
fairweather
14 April 2020 09:14:30


 


Deaths per million is a better indicator. At the moment we're doing better than Spain and slightly worse than Italy. 


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-deaths-days-since-per-million?country=DEU+ITA+ESP+GBR+IRL


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


You'd like to think at some point deaths will be the most accurate figure between Countries. Hospital admissions in the UK may be fairly consistent but most other comparisons are relatively meaningless inter or intra Country due to the variable amounts of testing and the quality of that testing.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Maunder Minimum
14 April 2020 09:15:52

ONS weekly Covid19uk death data up to 3/4 (2 weeks ago) just announced is scary.
Highest weekly total since records began in 2005. 6000 higher than seasonal average. MUCH worse than flu. Order of magnitude increase in care home deaths.
All BEFORE sharp rise in hospital deaths.

Originally Posted by: John p 


So they are doing it via statistical analysis - would explain why there is a two week delay before figures can be provided.


Meanwhile, the shortcomings of our over centralised, over bureaucratic healthcare delivery system laid bare:


"The UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance broke ranks last night to criticise Public Health England’s results when it comes to increasing testing capacity. Speaking to ITV news last night, Sir Patrick said:




“It’s not scaled as fast as it needs to scale… It clearly hasn’t been at the scale that has enabled all the healthcare working testing that’s an important part of this.”



Over the weekend leaked emails obtained by Sky News revealed that Public Health England described their approach as a “command and control” testing strategy, centralising testing in government “megalabs” and rejecting private sector offers of help – many of whom are saying publicly they have under-utilised capacity. This has clearly been utterly insufficient.


As soon as the United States allowed private labs, charities, and universities to conduct tests they were able to expand their testing capacity at pace, whereas the UK’s centralised, nationalised approach appears to have held the country back. Serious questions will be asked of how fit Public Health England is for purpose when this is over…"


 


New world order coming.
Ulric
14 April 2020 09:19:17

ONS weekly Covid19uk death data up to 3/4 (2 weeks ago) just announced is scary.
Highest weekly total since records began in 2005. 6000 higher than seasonal average. MUCH worse than flu. Order of magnitude increase in care home deaths.
All BEFORE sharp rise in hospital deaths.

Originally Posted by: John p 


This data?


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020


 

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
fairweather
14 April 2020 09:22:30


 


Sounds like a farm I'd love to work at. Farm girls on horseback have always turned me on


I would love to have been around in the 60s. Free love etc. Sounds like a much happier more positive era, though the 70s were grim. I only remember the 80s 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Having lived through all of them I can assure you everybody's perception of any decade will depend on their age in it. The best years of your life are about 15-25 in my book and the mid sixties to early seventies were brilliant!!

S.Essex, 42m ASL

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