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Brian Gaze
14 April 2020 09:25:58


 Meanwhile, the shortcomings of our over centralised, over bureaucratic healthcare delivery system laid bare:


"The UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance broke ranks last night to criticise Public Health England’s results when it comes to increasing testing capacity. Speaking to ITV news last night, Sir Patrick said:




“It’s not scaled as fast as it needs to scale… It clearly hasn’t been at the scale that has enabled all the healthcare working testing that’s an important part of this.”



Over the weekend leaked emails obtained by Sky News revealed that Public Health England described their approach as a “command and control” testing strategy, centralising testing in government “megalabs” and rejecting private sector offers of help – many of whom are saying publicly they have under-utilised capacity. This has clearly been utterly insufficient.


As soon as the United States allowed private labs, charities, and universities to conduct tests they were able to expand their testing capacity at pace, whereas the UK’s centralised, nationalised approach appears to have held the country back. Serious questions will be asked of how fit Public Health England is for purpose when this is over…"


 



Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 Completely agree. Although we have an expert for all scenarios it seems.


 




Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Phil G
14 April 2020 09:36:09


This is worrying. Indications that a second wave hits very quickly after lockdown measures are eased. Suggests we may have to keep the economy closed until either an effective treatment or vaccine becomes available. The alternative could be to accept (in the UK) 500,000 more deaths.


Hokkaido re-declares state of emergency after second wave


It looks like Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido is starting to experience exactly what many epidemiologists had predicted; after the successful suppression of an initial outbreak, the relaxing of restrictions has led to a second wave.


Hokkaido was the first place in Japan to be hit badly by the virus. In mid-February the governor declared a state of emergency, schools were closed and people were urged to stay at home. The shutdown hit in the middle of the ski-season, the worst possible time. I was there myself at the beginning of March and the ski resorts were completely deserted. But it worked, and by the middle of March the infection rate had fallen to a handful of infections a day.


At the end of March schools re-opened and life in Hokkaido began to return to some sort of normality. But now just two weeks later a new state of emergency has been declared. By the end of last week new infections had climbed to between 15 and 20 a day which is higher than during the first wave in February. Schools have again been closed and people asked to stay at home.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52275989


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It's still early days but I wonder if we are on a course for the big one. With reports of those catching the disease for the second time and still to see how they come out of that, it's so early days could they catch it for a third time, fourth time, I'd be surprised if anyone could survive 4 bouts in such a short time. For starters how on earth can we ever let elderly people out of their homes again with this about. Society, the economy we won't be able to sustain prolonged lockdowns. My fear is that we are going to hear of worse to come, even now as we think it can't get much worse after the next couple of weeks of high deaths. If Wuhan goes under again after the relaxing last week, it'll make countries review their strategies once again. I just really hope what we are seeing now is not the tip of the iceberg.

Ulric
14 April 2020 09:37:57

Over the weekend leaked emails obtained by Sky News revealed that Public Health England described their approach as a “command and control” testing strategy, centralising testing in government “megalabs” and rejecting private sector offers of help – many of whom are saying publicly they have under-utilised capacity. This has clearly been utterly insufficient.



As soon as the United States allowed private labs, charities, and universities to conduct tests they were able to expand their testing capacity at pace, whereas the UK’s centralised, nationalised approach appears to have held the country back. Serious questions will be asked of how fit Public Health England is for purpose when this is over…"

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I wonder what the difference in price/test is between "government “megalabs” " and "private labs"?


Could it explain the government reluctance to save lives?



To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gandalf The White
14 April 2020 09:40:30


 


So they are doing it via statistical analysis - would explain why there is a two week delay before figures can be provided.


Meanwhile, the shortcomings of our over centralised, over bureaucratic healthcare delivery system laid bare:


"The UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance broke ranks last night to criticise Public Health England’s results when it comes to increasing testing capacity. Speaking to ITV news last night, Sir Patrick said:




“It’s not scaled as fast as it needs to scale… It clearly hasn’t been at the scale that has enabled all the healthcare working testing that’s an important part of this.”



Over the weekend leaked emails obtained by Sky News revealed that Public Health England described their approach as a “command and control” testing strategy, centralising testing in government “megalabs” and rejecting private sector offers of help – many of whom are saying publicly they have under-utilised capacity. This has clearly been utterly insufficient.


As soon as the United States allowed private labs, charities, and universities to conduct tests they were able to expand their testing capacity at pace, whereas the UK’s centralised, nationalised approach appears to have held the country back. Serious questions will be asked of how fit Public Health England is for purpose when this is over…"


 



Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Every organisation of whatever size makes mistakes. Attempting to use the failure to gear up testing for another attack on the NHS is just pathetic and unwarranted.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


speckledjim
14 April 2020 09:47:14


This is worrying. Indications that a second wave hits very quickly after lockdown measures are eased. Suggests we may have to keep the economy closed until either an effective treatment or vaccine becomes available. The alternative could be to accept (in the UK) 500,000 more deaths.


Hokkaido re-declares state of emergency after second wave


It looks like Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido is starting to experience exactly what many epidemiologists had predicted; after the successful suppression of an initial outbreak, the relaxing of restrictions has led to a second wave.


Hokkaido was the first place in Japan to be hit badly by the virus. In mid-February the governor declared a state of emergency, schools were closed and people were urged to stay at home. The shutdown hit in the middle of the ski-season, the worst possible time. I was there myself at the beginning of March and the ski resorts were completely deserted. But it worked, and by the middle of March the infection rate had fallen to a handful of infections a day.


At the end of March schools re-opened and life in Hokkaido began to return to some sort of normality. But now just two weeks later a new state of emergency has been declared. By the end of last week new infections had climbed to between 15 and 20 a day which is higher than during the first wave in February. Schools have again been closed and people asked to stay at home.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52275989


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Japan never had a lockdown, all they did was close schools. Shops, restaurants, bars all remained open and people carried on working. 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gandalf The White
14 April 2020 09:48:16


 


It's still early days but I wonder if we are on a course for the big one. With reports of those catching the disease for the second time and still to see how they come out of that, it's so early days could they catch it for a third time, fourth time, I'd be surprised if anyone could survive 4 bouts in such a short time. For starters how on earth can we ever let elderly people out of their homes again with this about. Society, the economy we won't be able to sustain prolonged lockdowns. My fear is that we are going to hear of worse to come, even now as we think it can't get much worse after the next couple of weeks of high deaths. If Wuhan goes under again after the relaxing last week, it'll make countries review their strategies once again. I just really hope what we are seeing now is not the tip of the iceberg.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


I've made the point a few times now that we have been blessed to live in a period when advances in healthcare, medical and pharmaceutical sciences and public health have allowed us to live pretty much free of diseases that used to be endemic and feared.


We have to hope that a vaccine will become available. If people can be reinfected then that might require an annual vaccination or even, for vulnerable people, perhaps six-monthly vaccinations.  


If there is no effective vaccine then we're looking at quite a lot of deaths in the next 1-2 years and a permanent lowering of life expectancy because the current restrictions cannot go on indefinitely.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
14 April 2020 09:49:30


 


100% inevitable and predictable. The characteristics of SARS-Cov2 don't alter, so any moves that increase social interaction must come with a risk that will rise exponentially the more the restrictions are eased.


The only way out is with significantly greater testing and continuing constraints until we have a vaccine. If an effective vaccine can't be found then we really are in trouble.


 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Do we actually know this as a fact or is it too early in its lifespan to know exactly? We don't get the same flu strain every year. It dies out, probably mostly through herd immunity and sometimes with the help of vaccine if they are lucky enough to predict the right strain. Doubtless each time the lockdown is eased there will be an increase but the rate of increase should be lower than the first wave as you'd like to think people will be much more self regulating than before, with or without a lockdown.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
llamedos
14 April 2020 09:52:38

Here's another TED talk, taken from an American perspective and praising the speed of response of most east Asian countries. It paints a bleak picture in terms of how the social divide is likely to widen if governments don't ensure that priority relief reaches the right economic sectors. It also questions why India was "locked down" at just 4 hours notice.


At just over 30 minutes long it will stimulate debate.


 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldKtWp7jlHI


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Retron
14 April 2020 10:02:19


It's still early days but I wonder if we are on a course for the big one.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Look on the bright side - if it is, it'll do wonders for the planet... fewer people, less pollution, less consumption, less pressure on wildlife. The generations to come after us would no doubt be appreciative of having been given extra breathing space.


I don't think it's the "big one" though.



With reports of those catching the disease for the second time and still to see how they come out of that, it's so early days could they catch it for a third time, fourth time, I'd be surprised if anyone could survive 4 bouts in such a short time. For starters how on earth can we ever let elderly people out of their homes again with this about. Society, the economy we won't be able to sustain prolonged lockdowns. My fear is that we are going to hear of worse to come, even now as we think it can't get much worse after the next couple of weeks of high deaths. If Wuhan goes under again after the relaxing last week, it'll make countries review their strategies once again. I just really hope what we are seeing now is not the tip of the iceberg.



I would treat those reports with a truckload of salt. Most medical professionals are expecting it to be a testing issue, rather than a genuine reinfection - something so soon is impossible, anyway, with our understanding of the way coronaviruses work. (It's worth remembering, despite its virulence, it is a variant of the common cold / flu viruses, just one that ended up rolling a Yahtzee rather than 2, 3, 3, 4 and 6.)


As for what happens in the months ahead: a full lockdown is impossible to sustain and even our limited one will run out of steam in a month or two. The choice then becomes how many people do we let die? None isn't an option, and neither is "as small as possible" - as by doing that, we would kill more people in the medium term due to non Covid-19 effects.


It's an equation I really wouldn't want to have to solve.


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
14 April 2020 10:05:07


 


I've made the point a few times now that we have been blessed to live in a period when advances in healthcare, medical and pharmaceutical sciences and public health have allowed us to live pretty much free of diseases that used to be endemic and feared.


We have to hope that a vaccine will become available. If people can be reinfected then that might require an annual vaccination or even, for vulnerable people, perhaps six-monthly vaccinations.  


If there is no effective vaccine then we're looking at quite a lot of deaths in the next 1-2 years and a permanent lowering of life expectancy because the current restrictions cannot go on indefinitely.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Very true.


Personally I'm VERY sceptical that a viable vaccine will be developed and manufactured quickly. Very sceptical indeed.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
westv
14 April 2020 10:09:07

Three week extension being mooted this morning - which I think would tie in with what France have done.


At least it will be mild!
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
14 April 2020 10:11:02

ONS weekly Covid19uk death data up to 3/4 (2 weeks ago) just announced is scary.
Highest weekly total since records began in 2005. 6000 higher than seasonal average. MUCH worse than flu. Order of magnitude increase in care home deaths.
All BEFORE sharp rise in hospital deaths.

Originally Posted by: John p 


It's striking that in the under 40s there has been no increase at all.


Whether Idle
14 April 2020 10:11:31

SK, NZ, Aus, Slovakia, Greece... this thing was/is containable. That's the biggest tragedy.

Originally Posted by: NickR 


Ahhh, but if you beg to offer any critique of the government, the blind-faith Tory boys on here will soon attack with their metaphorical water cannon. 


Just check back to the lambasting I received back in the first week of March for daring to suggest Captain Slow (aka Boris) and his bunch of incompetent pricks of cabinet ministers were getting our national  approach to the Pandemic hopelessly wrong, and this putting thousands of lives at risk.


For all of Macron's failings, at least he has the good grace to admit mistakes.  Our lot are way too far up their own rectums to do that!


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gandalf The White
14 April 2020 10:11:58


 


Do we actually know this as a fact or is it too early in its lifespan to know exactly? We don't get the same flu strain every year. It dies out, probably mostly through herd immunity and sometimes with the help of vaccine if they are lucky enough to predict the right strain. Doubtless each time the lockdown is eased there will be an increase but the rate of increase should be lower than the first wave as you'd like to think people will be much more self regulating than before, with or without a lockdown.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Except that the mortality rate of SARS-Cov2 is at least 10x normal seasonal influenza and we do get the same strains reappearing. There's no natural process by which a virus just dies out: herd immunity doesn't achieve it, just look at the recurrence of outbreaks of measles, for example.


Yes, but isn't the threshold for seeing herd immunity having an effect quite high? At the moment there are suggestions that we might be at perhaps 5% - if you have a group of twenty people and one person has the virus then you've still got 18 potential targets. It's statistically almost certain that others will catch it.  I believe the latest estimate is that you need between 70% & 80% for herd immunity: that's a long way, and a lot of serious illness and deaths away, from where we are now.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
14 April 2020 10:21:08


 


Ahhh, but if you beg to offer any critique of the government, the blind-faith Tory boys on here will soon attack with their metaphorical water cannon. 


Just check back to the lambasting I received back in the first week of March for daring to suggest Captain Slow (aka Boris) and his bunch of incompetent pricks of cabinet ministers were getting our national  approach to the Pandemic hopelessly wrong, and this putting thousands of lives at risk.


For all of Macron's failings, at least he has the good grace to admit mistakes.  Our lot are way too far up their own rectums to do that!


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


I will not defend the government unquestioningly because mistakes have been made.


All I would say is that the options available were never binary, as you and others seem to want to suggest. Every policy action has a range of consequences and at the time clearly the scientists and other experts thought they had got the balance right in their advice.


Plus, it is way too early to be making judgments. This is going to run on for at least a year, maybe more, maybe forever. In that context shouldn't we wait and see the long-term outcomes? Hokkaido in Japan has just gone back into lockdown again; Singapore has had to impose tight restrictions. What you're doing is like predicting the result of the football match after a few minutes of the 90.  


Isn't it possible, indeed probable, that every country ends up in much the same place, just via different routes?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
14 April 2020 10:21:25


 


Ahhh, but if you beg to offer any critique of the government, the blind-faith Tory boys on here will soon attack with their metaphorical water cannon. 


Just check back to the lambasting I received back in the first week of March for daring to suggest Captain Slow (aka Boris) and his bunch of incompetent pricks of cabinet ministers were getting our national  approach to the Pandemic hopelessly wrong, and this putting thousands of lives at risk.


For all of Macron's failings, at least he has the good grace to admit mistakes.  Our lot are way too far up their own rectums to do that!


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Careful, you might get a suspension from llamedos or Michael. 


Criticism of the Tory Govt is unpatriotic


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
springsunshine
14 April 2020 10:22:04


 


Very true.


Personally I'm VERY sceptical that a viable vaccine will be developed and manufactured quickly. Very sceptical indeed.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I share your scepticism too and am not optimistic at all about a reliable vaccine being found.


We are going to have to live with the ever present threat of this virus and accept the casualties.

llamedos
14 April 2020 10:24:35

A David Icke moment ......


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52279109


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
The Beast from the East
14 April 2020 10:26:55


 


I share your scepticism too and am not optimistic at all about a reliable vaccine being found.


We are going to have to live with the ever present threat of this virus and accept the casualties.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


I think some sort of vaccine will emerge but it may not provide complete protection like any flu vaccine. It also may not be free for the under 60s like the flu vaccine


So the poor will not get it and continue to die at higher rate


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Phil G
14 April 2020 10:26:57


Three week extension being mooted this morning - which I think would tie in with what France have done.


Originally Posted by: westv 


What a quandary, nightmare these extensions/relaxing periods must be. What responsibility, especially as any measures are best endeavours. France are going for 11th May, though just some things relaxed. I'll guesstimate we'll be a week or two later in May. With other countries relaxing the restrictions a little, more than ever we'll be watching/waiting/learning the effect of these. Feels like blind leading the blind, tentative steps as you would expect.

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
14 April 2020 10:27:36


 


I will not defend the government unquestioningly because mistakes have been made.


All I would say is that the options available were never binary, as you and others seem to want to suggest. Every policy action has a range of consequences and at the time clearly the scientists and other experts thought they had got the balance right in their advice.


Plus, it is way too early to be making judgments. This is going to run on for at least a year, maybe more, maybe forever. In that context shouldn't we wait and see the long-term outcomes? Hokkaido in Japan has just gone back into lockdown again; Singapore has had to impose tight restrictions. What you're doing is like predicting the result of the football match after a few minutes of the 90.  


Isn't it possible, indeed probable, that every country ends up in much the same place, just via different routes?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The resurgence in Japan and Singapore shows us that trying to stop it completely can't work in the absence of vaccine - from where the world is now.
The only viable option is herd immunity.
When about 50% have had it and are at least partially immune it will start to decline as rapidly as it increased.

Locking down may have a place but the total number infected will eventually be much the same no matter what you do.
There's a good case for focusing the isolation more strongly on those over about 70 and letting everyone else get back to more normal life as soon as possible.


llamedos
14 April 2020 10:28:30


 


I will not defend the government unquestioningly because mistakes have been made.


All I would say is that the options available were never binary, as you and others seem to want to suggest. Every policy action has a range of consequences and at the time clearly the scientists and other experts thought they had got the balance right in their advice.


Plus, it is way too early to be making judgments. This is going to run on for at least a year, maybe more, maybe forever. In that context shouldn't we wait and see the long-term outcomes? Hokkaido in Japan has just gone back into lockdown again; Singapore has had to impose tight restrictions. What you're doing is like predicting the result of the football match after a few minutes of the 90.  


Isn't it possible, indeed probable, that every country ends up in much the same place, just via different routes?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Succinct, as normal 


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
llamedos
14 April 2020 10:32:27


 


Careful, you might get a suspension from llamedos or Michael. 


Criticism of the Tory Govt is unpatriotic


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Wrong! Frequently talking bollox is likely to have ramifications, but you already know that.  


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
doctormog
14 April 2020 10:35:03


 


I will not defend the government unquestioningly because mistakes have been made.


All I would say is that the options available were never binary, as you and others seem to want to suggest. Every policy action has a range of consequences and at the time clearly the scientists and other experts thought they had got the balance right in their advice.


Plus, it is way too early to be making judgments. This is going to run on for at least a year, maybe more, maybe forever. In that context shouldn't we wait and see the long-term outcomes? Hokkaido in Japan has just gone back into lockdown again; Singapore has had to impose tight restrictions. What you're doing is like predicting the result of the football match after a few minutes of the 90.  


Isn't it possible, indeed probable, that every country ends up in much the same place, just via different routes?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Indeed and I have wondered about your last sentence myself but I guess only time will tell.


It is also somewhat ironic that the only ones bringing up points about politics are the ones complaining about people making points about politics. There are none so blind as those that will not see. Possibly suffering from toomuchtimeinmytwitterechochamberitis?


Beast seems baffled by the actual science so resorts to childish name calling, it’s a bit embarrassing to put it mildly. I’m also slightly baffled as to how I could suspend him or anyone else.  (No inappropriate suggestions please).


llamedos
14 April 2020 10:38:25


 Possibly suffering from toomuchtimeinmytwitterechochamberitis?


 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Wouldn't it be great if there was such a condition 


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

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