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xioni2
16 April 2020 12:01:23


 A couple of things with this:


The main problem is that there was/is a lack of testing in care homes, so data won't say died from COVID unless they tested positive. 


CQC data comes from death notifications which managers complete.  It relies on the managers providing accurate information (they sometimes don't get to see the death certificate, just hear verbally what the COD is or not at all). The question asks "Cause of Death - (If known)" as in many cases it won't be known by the manager. 


ONS can extract the data from death certificate data. This is surely the most accurate way, but it can't be done in real time. 


 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Yes, but as the article says, prior to 6 April the regulator expected that care homes would have written “Covid-19” or “suspected Covid-19” in the free text box but many did not and some left it blank.

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2020 12:09:27


 


In the case of Merkel it is very much the content. She is sitting down and talking without any slides or props or silly slogans behind her back! Her presentation style is very straight forward and she is treating her audience in a grown up way. Johnson for all his theatrical bluster and grandiose language would do well to watch and learn. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The difference between Merkel's and Johnson's approach to informing the public is indeed remarkable but only to be expected. One of them spent the early part of their career as a scientist. The other as "one of the greatest exponents of fake journalism".

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Northern Sky
16 April 2020 12:11:18


 


Not to mention what will happen with those 20-30 year olds who still live with their parents.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Statistically there doesn't seem to be much evidence that under 40's are anymore at risk that the 20 -30 age bracket. Many more of the 30 - 40 group will live in their own homes. Seems a sensible idea to me to allow the under 40's back first.

xioni2
16 April 2020 12:12:55


 And yet, South Korea have used this tactic from the start - and the impact of CV19 on both number of cases/deaths and the wider economy has been a lot lower than we have had here. In Germany, where they were not as rigorous as SK but still embarked on a much wider programme of testing, and their cases/deaths are below ours and some restrictions are to be relaxed soon.


Testing works - it's just that a lot of resources need to be devoted to the whole trace-test-isolate function, and it needs to be applied universally and with strict adherence to any isolation order.


 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I shouldn't have to, but 


It's more than a month now since the crisis has started and the government should be spending a lot of time on this in preparation for the relaxation of the lockdown later in May. If the number of new infections comes down significantly, then such a task might not be that difficult anyway as there will be a lot of physical distancing even after the lockdown is relaxed. We still get nothing though.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2020 12:20:13


 


The problem with all this, is that everything is lagged and things could get out of hand again before governments know it. Unless testing improves massively, the number of confirmed infections today in the UK describe the state of the epidemic ~2 weeks ago. Reacting to the latest data is ill advised.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2020 12:49:44


The difference between Merkel's and Johnson's approach to informing the public is indeed remarkable but only to be expected. One of them spent the early part of their career as a scientist. The other as "one of the greatest exponents of fake journalism".

Originally Posted by: RobN 


Merkel did Physics


Boris did Literae Humaniores


 


(To be fair I don't think Boris is stupid but I can guarantee that Merkel is better at interpreting graphs!)

--
Paul.
Gandalf The White
16 April 2020 12:58:29


Coronavirus: EasyJet to leave middle plane seats empty


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52306868


What are they going to do when the plane is on the stand after landing but the doors haven't opened? At that point everyone stands up in the aisle. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Surely there will be new boarding and disembarking procedures and everyone will be thoroughly briefed, including passengers. Loading by seat number, starting at the back; disembarking by row number starting at the front. You don't undo your seat belt until the row in front has left.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


John p
16 April 2020 12:59:57


 


 


And yet, South Korea have used this tactic from the start - and the impact of CV19 on both number of cases/deaths and the wider economy has been a lot lower than we have had here. In Germany, where they were not as rigorous as SK but still embarked on a much wider programme of testing, and their cases/deaths are below ours and some restrictions are to be relaxed soon.


Testing works - it's just that a lot of resources need to be devoted to the whole trace-test-isolate function, and it needs to be applied universally and with strict adherence to any isolation order.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I’d like to know if we’ve tried the obvious - engaged with the South Koreans to get their advice, purchase and translate their contact tracing apps etc instead of reinventing the wheel. 
We seem to have this misguided notion that we know best. 

Camberley, Surrey
Gooner
16 April 2020 13:00:26


 


Statistically there doesn't seem to be much evidence that under 40's are anymore at risk that the 20 -30 age bracket. Many more of the 30 - 40 group will live in their own homes. Seems a sensible idea to me to allow the under 40's back first.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


You will be surprised how many 35 and below are still at home with parents 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2020 13:02:23


I’d like to know if we’ve tried the obvious - engaged with the South Koreans to get their advice, purchase and translate their contact tracing apps etc instead of reinventing the wheel.


Originally Posted by: John p 


 


I recall reading/hearing that SK was in a good position because they were already prepared for a response to a possible chemical weapons attack from NK. Not sure if this is true. Agree other nations should be talking to them though.

--
Paul.
Gooner
16 April 2020 13:04:10

PGA TOUR To return in June , first 4 events to be played behind closed tours  - very surprised , even without spectators that's a lot of people attending 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin D
16 April 2020 13:04:59
Wales has reported 284 new cases and 32 new deaths.

Scotland has reported 354 new cases and 80 new deaths
John p
16 April 2020 13:05:30


PGA TOUR To return in June , first 4 events to be played behind closed tours  - very surprised , even without spectators that's a lot of people attending 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Although out of all the sports it’s probably the easiest to maintain social distancing. 

Camberley, Surrey
Gavin D
16 April 2020 13:06:27
Northern Ireland has reported 113 new cases and 18 new deaths
Gooner
16 April 2020 13:08:22


 


Although out of all the sports it’s probably the easiest to maintain social distancing. 


Originally Posted by: John p 


Yes very true 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin D
16 April 2020 13:12:21

Breaking: NHS England announce 740 new deaths up from 651 yesterday

Gandalf The White
16 April 2020 13:15:13


 


 Indeed. It makes a farce out of Hancock's statement that it is proving impossible to find more people to test in the UK. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Except that there was that report of a test centre to which nobody turned up through an entire session of several hours.


Maybe testing has to be mandatory: you receive a letter telling you when to go and to which centre. 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
16 April 2020 13:16:46

Breakdown of the 740 deaths in England by date



  • 151 on April 15th

  • 314 on April 14th

  • 122 on April 13th

  • 143 between April 1st and April 12th

  • 10 in March with one on March 9th

Gandalf The White
16 April 2020 13:20:52



Originally Posted by: Caz 


Agree 100%


I'm struggling to understand why people expect an announcement that sets out what happens next and when at a time when there's still huge uncertainty.


I can think of nothing more demoralising that the government feeling compelled to give a positive, upbeat message and then discover that they had to change the plan.


 


We're only a couple of months into the biggest health emergency in a century.  People need to get this into perspective.


I still think Keir Starmer was wrong. More communication, yes; miscommunication and giving false hope, no. 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
16 April 2020 13:22:33


 


Agree 100%


I'm struggling to understand why people expect an announcement that sets out what happens next and when at a time when there's still huge uncertainty.


I can think of nothing more demoralising that the government feeling compelled to give a positive, upbeat message and then discover that they had to change the plan.


 


We're only a couple of months into the biggest health emergency in a century.  People need to get this into perspective.


I still think Keir Starmer was wrong. More communication, yes; miscommunication and giving false hope, no. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Equally, unnamed ministers should not be sending out confusing signals in the media around what may or may not happen. That is equally unhelpful.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gandalf The White
16 April 2020 13:23:27


Breakdown of the 740 deaths in England by date



  • 151 on April 15th

  • 314 on April 14th

  • 122 on April 13th

  • 143 between April 1st and April 12th

  • 10 in March with one on March 9th


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


So, only 20% actually died yesterday; 80% this week.


Obviously yesterday's will go up over the coming days but I think that's still reasonably encouraging given it's a lagging indicator.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
16 April 2020 13:24:53


 


Equally, unnamed ministers should not be sending out confusing signals in the media around what may or may not happen. That is equally unhelpful.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I agree, although there are lots of journalists wanting an angle and plenty of politicians and experts willing to give their personal opinion.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
16 April 2020 13:31:17


 


Agree 100%


I'm struggling to understand why people expect an announcement that sets out what happens next and when at a time when there's still huge uncertainty.


I can think of nothing more demoralising that the government feeling compelled to give a positive, upbeat message and then discover that they had to change the plan.


 


We're only a couple of months into the biggest health emergency in a century.  People need to get this into perspective.


I still think Keir Starmer was wrong. More communication, yes; miscommunication and giving false hope, no. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Absolutely spot on 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin D
16 April 2020 13:50:54

Department of Health and Social Care confirm 861 deaths


4,618 positive tests including key workers


13,839 tests completed


Confirmed rate has fallen to 33.37%

Essan
16 April 2020 13:52:14


Equally, unnamed ministers should not be sending out confusing signals in the media around what may or may not happen. That is equally unhelpful.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



But are they actually issuing statements?  What is more likely is that journalists are just working "down the line" until they find someone less experienced at dealing with them who, on being asked "is it possible that we could do x" inadvertently admits that it "is possible ..." - next minute headline annouces that minister says we will do x.

Some journalists don't seem to report on what someone actually says/means any more, they write the story and then find someone to support it, even if it means completey misquoting out of context (I have known them to report a weather forecaster as saying x would happen when he actually made it quite clear (or thought he did) that x would not happen)

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
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