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Ulric
17 April 2020 08:01:47


Edit: I'm going to stick my neck out here and say the idea that 50% of people with the corona virus remain asymptomatic will turn out to be complete bull. Gut feel only. No evidence to back it.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Which in turn, implies that the overall mortality rate is much higher than we have been led to believe.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
westv
17 April 2020 08:03:07




Which is still 3 times as much as they earn in Romania .... 



Originally Posted by: Essan 


Indeed. There must be an incentive to come here. They won't be doing it out of the goodness of their hearts.


At least it will be mild!
westv
17 April 2020 08:05:24


 


Unbelievable. All the police joining in too! 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


I wonder if the clap will just stop one week or just fade away.


At least it will be mild!
Brian Gaze
17 April 2020 08:09:13


 


Which in turn, implies that the overall mortality rate is much higher than we have been led to believe.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Depends who you believe. I've flagged this up a few times but will post again.


University of Hong Kong researchers put Covid-19 mortality rate at 1.4 per cent



https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074015/university-hong-kong-researchers-put-covid-19
 

 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
17 April 2020 08:09:33


Which is still 3 times as much as they earn in Romania .... 

Added to which, it means we're not paying £5 a lb for potatoes in Tesco


Originally Posted by: Essan 


You've missed the point there - the point being that the farmers aren't prepared to pay a proper legal wage. They get round it by charging for the use of manky caravans / outbuildings etc as accommodation, thus paying a much lower real wage.


They can't do that with Brits, as they'd simply refuse (not to mention they'd already have a home in this country, so are less likely to need the accommodation).


Not all farmers play the system that way, of course, most of them don't, but it only takes one rotten apple to spoil the barrel.


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
17 April 2020 08:10:14


Continued from the last thread:


 


 


A more extensive account of the situation here.


https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/experts/article-8125799/Can-season-ticket-refund-Covid-19-makes-work-home.html


The rail companies' argument is that if someone bought an annual season knowing they only wanted it for two months, they would get the annual discounted rate without any intention to enter into their half of the bargain, i.e. a commitment to travel for a year. Or, taken to extremes I suppose, could even get a week's travel at the cheap rate.  More earthily, their spokesman compared it to a BOGOF offer - you wouldn't get a refund on that second tin of beans if you took it back.


Some companies have accepted that in the present circumstances a pro rata refund is appropriate, but others (notably Greater Anglia)are dragging their heels.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


The rules on season ticket refunds are simple enough and seem fair to me: you get a refund based on the price of the cheapest tickets you could have bought for the period you actually used it.


So if you bought an annual ticket and want a refund after six months and two weeks, then you will get back the cost of the annual ticket minus the cost of six monthly tickets and two weekly tickets, which is what you would have had to buy to cover that period.


 


As an annual ticket costs only slightly more than 10 monthly tickets, if you want a refund after using it for more than 10 months you won't get anything back. But you're not losing out, because if you had only bought monthly tickets for the period you used it then you would still have spent just as much money!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
springsunshine
17 April 2020 08:12:54


 


We would 'need' to tolerate between 600,000 and 1million deaths to achieve herd immunity.


No government would ever go for that. Restrictions (to a greater or lesser degree) are here to stay until/if there is an effective vaccine and there is considerable doubt about that.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


So what happens if an effective vaccine cannot be found??


I also fear that there won`t be one.

Brian Gaze
17 April 2020 08:13:36

Seems like the government is getting fed up with Ferguson. 


Professor Ferguson said he would like to see “action accelerated” and called for more infrastructure and an organisation aimed at dealing with the transition to normality.
...
Mr Hancock retorted that Professor Ferguson was not party to the action going on behind the scenes because he was “not in the government”.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-social-distancing-likely-to-go-on-long-after-the-lockdown-gf0c5szf7


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
17 April 2020 08:22:52


 


It's an interesting one how this affects people differently.


I live on my own, am an only child and am used to being by myself, my close family all having died. My plan, once the wolves die (the youngest at the moment being 9, so maybe another 5-7 years), is to leave my job at the school and, if I want to, work from home. I will get a dog for company and plan to take long walks with him along the footpaths, beaches and cliffs nearby. I'm not one of those who enjoys exercise, so the idea of going for a 4-mile walk alone doesn't appeal... it's fine with wolves though!


So far I'm really, really missing the wolves. It's 2½ months since I last saw them and although driving along a busy M25 to get to them isn't much fun, the change of scenery, the other volunteers and of course the wolves make it greatly worthwhile. I also miss meeting up with one of my friends and taking his dogs for a walk along the coast, or having my friends come round for a games morning (Mario Kart is much more fun when you've a few people in a room playing it).


I can kind of con myself into thinking it's just a weekend without the wolves, but of course I know it isn't. It's the same strategy I used when my dad died; I could imagine he'd just gone away for a week, then another week... I was and am used to being on my own, but it still felt odd. I guess, in a way, it's a kind of very mild bereavement - at least in this case, though, there'll be a semblance of normality eventually.


The other bits... the queues for Tesco, the lack of being able to pop out at 5:30AM on a Saturday to do the shopping when nobody's around, being able to get a haircut, the loss of just being able to take an Easter egg round to a friend as a surprise - it all feels like some sort of weird dream. It's not, of course, it's real life!


There are positives, of course. I'm not one for walks (at least on my own), but being in the garden and watching the wildlife of a lunchtime is relaxing. I'm lucky in that I have no worries about money and I'm also lucky in that I can do my job mostly from home, so I'm gaining over 10 hours a week of time saved from commuting and getting in early to beat traffic.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


I'm also enjoying the lockdown. I was already looking forward to my new job with shorter hours and a shorter commute, but my commute has now shortened to zero (in fact my desk literally overhangs one corner of my bed ). Being able to have lunch with the family (out in the garden quite often already), and switch off the laptop at 5.30 and be home without having to sit on a train for an hour, is great.


I don't have a big house, but it is big enough, and we have a decent-sized garden which I am finally able to spend enough time to keep on top of. My social life was generally restricted to bike rides with friends at the weekend and the occasional pub lunch with the family, so I don't really feel that I am missing out that much. To be honest I enjoy being at home and I quite like the fact that I don't need an excuse not to go out on some exhausting day trip with two kids! And in fact last weekend we had probably the biggest reunion of old schoolfriends that we've had in the past decade, via Zoom.


My wife is dealing with it less well - she would usually meet up with friends and their kids several times a week while I was at work and is missing that. My 8-year-old daughter is missing her friends too. She's not old enough to have her own phone but she has been talking to some of them on video calls using her mum's phone. I think she also feels the lack of attention because her 2-year-old brother naturally demands more of her parents' time.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
17 April 2020 08:30:51


 


You've missed the point there - the point being that the farmers aren't prepared to pay a proper legal wage. They get round it by charging for the use of manky caravans / outbuildings etc as accommodation, thus paying a much lower real wage.


They can't do that with Brits, as they'd simply refuse (not to mention they'd already have a home in this country, so are less likely to need the accommodation).


Not all farmers play the system that way, of course, most of them don't, but it only takes one rotten apple to spoil the barrel.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


The reason Brits don't do it is actually very simple. You have to live onsite in these dodgy caravans because there are usually no public transport links to most farms. Most Brits are not willing to do that for such low wages as you say


Even if you had a car you would need to drive miles to get there at the crack of dawn


When I was a student, I picked Asparagus during the Summer hols at a farm in Surrey. But I had a car and the hours were flexible so I could avoid rush our. 


Back then, there were no foreigners working but I remember the farmer saying how hard it was to find people to work, so I guess when the eastern bloc came into  the EU, it just became easier to recruit them instead


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Chunky Pea
17 April 2020 08:31:52


 


You've missed the point there - the point being that the farmers aren't prepared to pay a proper legal wage. They get round it by charging for the use of manky caravans / outbuildings etc as accommodation, thus paying a much lower real wage.


They can't do that with Brits, as they'd simply refuse (not to mention they'd already have a home in this country, so are less likely to need the accommodation).


Not all farmers play the system that way, of course, most of them don't, but it only takes one rotten apple to spoil the barrel.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


The same 'controversy' is brewing up over here too with talk of importing cheap labour in from eastern Europe to pick crops and fruit, and all this as more and more Irish people find themselves out of work due to the 'lockdown'. 


"While close to 500,000 Irish people have lost their jobs recently due to the pandemic, sources in the fruit and vegetable sector explained that many of the Bulgarian and Romanian workers have been employed on the same Irish farms for years and are fully trained and experienced."


https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/agri-business/farm-sector-planning-to-fly-in-1500-seasonal-workers-to-save-fruit-and-veg-harvest-39124350.html


'Seasonal' really is just code for cheap, disposable and easily exploited' 


 


 


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gavin D
17 April 2020 08:35:40

Virgin radio have today announced The Big Thank You Tour 35,000 free tickets will be given to key workers for the 3 concerts later this year



  • The SSE Arena, Wembley on Wednesday 28th October

  • Manchester Arena on Thursday 29th October

  • The SSE Hydro Arena Glasgow on Sunday 1st November


More details will be announced in the coming weeks

NickR
17 April 2020 08:36:40


From the Tele - bad news from the Netherlands (where they've been doing antibody testing). It would suggest the stark choice is either trash the economy, or take large numbers of deaths in order to build immunity.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/16/uk-faces-eight-ten-waves-coronavirus-population-achieves-herd/



UK faces eight to ten waves of coronavirus before population achieves herd immunity


A study shows just three per cent of Dutch people had developed immunity by the end of the first week of April - the country's virus peak


Hopes that Britain can achieve widespread Covid-19 immunity by the end of the lockdown have been dealt a devastating blow after research suggested only a small proportion may have acquired resistance to the disease.


Drawing on the research, Professor Anthony Costello, a former British director of the World Health Organisation, warned that the UK faces eight to ten waves of coronavirus before the population achieves herd immunity.


In such a scenario, both the death toll and economic consequences would be catastrophic.


In the middle of March, before the lockdown was introduced, Sir Patrick Vallance, the country's chief scientific adviser, said about 40m people in the UK could need to catch the coronavirus to build up “herd immunity” and prevent the disease coming back in the future. 


Sir Patrick was defending Boris Johnson’s decision at the time not to follow other European countries by closing schools and banning mass gatherings. 


...


Prof Costello also said a Dutch study - if it proved accurate - raised serious concern for the UK because it suggested just three per cent of the Netherlands had acquired immunity by the end of the first week of April - when the pandemic was at its peak in that country.


The study, conducted by Dutch blood bank authorities, analysed tests for the Covid-19 antibody - an indicator of immunity - on 4,200 blood donors.


Just three per cent had acquired immunity, the scientists concluded. Prof Costello said if the findings were verified that would have alarming consequences for the UK’s ability to fight coronavirus.


He said: “We won’t get herd immunity if what the latest models show are correct. In the UK we would have to get through another eight to ten waves to get to herd immunity. This study in the Netherlands shows antibody levels are very low in the community and so the idea it is rapidly spreading and giving protection at the same time isn’t there.”



Originally Posted by: Retron 


Or do what NZ, Aus, Greece, and SK have done.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Rob K
17 April 2020 08:39:43


 


'Seasonal' really is just code for cheap, disposable and easily exploited' 


 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Well that quote suggests that in fact many of the workers have regular annual work in the same place. Not suggesting their conditions and pay might not be poor, but it seems like they are trained and know what they are doing.


I do have to wonder quite how much training it takes to pick fruit, but as my experience is limited to the occasional visit to a PYO farm I won't comment further!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
17 April 2020 08:40:27


 


We would 'need' to tolerate between 600,000 and 1million deaths to achieve herd immunity.


No government would ever go for that.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Not officially of course


But Channel 4 news yesterday exposed how Doctors are being pressured into not putting down Cvod19 as a cause of death for deaths in the community and care homes, even those who have tested positive


The real death toll is likely to be double what the official number is anyway


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
17 April 2020 08:46:00




Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


WTF


So if you are on Westminster Bridge no need for distancing 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
17 April 2020 08:47:39


Or do what NZ, Aus, Greece, and SK have done.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


They've kept it at bay for now, but they're all extremely vulnerable - more so than us, as we've at least a tiny bif of herd immunity now. It'll be interesting to see whether they can continue to keep it out for another year+, I'd bet they won't be able to.


Leysdown, north Kent
Gavin D
17 April 2020 08:49:25

Maybe time to stop this clapping on London bridge and outside hospitals if people don't know how to keep apart at a safe distance


 



The Beast from the East
17 April 2020 08:49:44


 


Or do what NZ, Aus, Greece, and SK have done.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


But the moment these countries allow international travel again and lift lockdowns, Covid will start spreading. This virus is incredible and cant be stopped, until an effective vaccine can be distributed


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gavin D
17 April 2020 08:51:52

Chunky Pea
17 April 2020 08:53:15


 


Well that quote suggests that in fact many of the workers have regular annual work in the same place. Not suggesting their conditions and pay might not be poor, but it seems like they are trained and know what they are doing.


I do have to wonder quite how much training it takes to pick fruit, but as my experience is limited to the occasional visit to a PYO farm I won't comment further!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I have picked crops and it is back breaking work, but I think the bigger question here is why farmers depend so highly on cheap labour in the first place? I'd say with enough digging we would find trails leading back to big supermarkets.


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
17 April 2020 08:59:16


 


You've missed the point there - the point being that the farmers aren't prepared to pay a proper legal wage. They get round it by charging for the use of manky caravans / outbuildings etc as accommodation, thus paying a much lower real wage.


They can't do that with Brits, as they'd simply refuse (not to mention they'd already have a home in this country, so are less likely to need the accommodation).


Not all farmers play the system that way, of course, most of them don't, but it only takes one rotten apple to spoil the barrel.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Why do you suppose they can't do that, assuming it's true?

Supermarkets control producer prices with a rod of iron and anything out of spec put in the box by careless packers will result in hefty deductions. 

The margins on any kind of fruit and vegetable production are not just pitiful but in negative territory, that's why most traditional apple orchards aren't picked at all anymore because transport storage and other costs aren't covered let alone paying pickers more than they can get shelf stacking. 
At the moment the actual work would be setting out plants like cabbage/cauliflower or harvesting them which could involve long hours starting very early typically working with a group sorting or manually cutting crops and they'd be transferred to crates in a semi-prepared state.
Actually getting anyone from the UK to turn up for work like that more than a week or so is all but impossible because hurty back and fingers.
This also explains why the vast majority of fruit and veg is now imported, other than small niche producers who do all the work in family themselves.


Rob K
17 April 2020 09:00:08


 


I have picked crops and it is back breaking work, but I think the bigger question here is why farmers depend so highly on cheap labour in the first place? I'd say with enough digging we would find trails leading back to big supermarkets.


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Well it's the way the world works, isn't it. The Romanians are prepared to do it for that amount - see the quotes further up the thread where they say they can earn more in four months over here than they could in a year back home. Consumers want cheap food. Supermarkets want to sell cheap food. If one farm insisted on paying UK pickers a fair wage, the supermarkets would go instead to other farms that can sell them fruit for a lower price by using cheap immigrant labour.


 


I can't really see any way round it in a free market. If supermarkets offered two different displays of the same fruit and veg but one display was 50% more expensive but labelled "PICKED BY BRITISH WORKERS", do you think people would buy it? I don't...


 


Unless the world economy levels out to an extent that minimum wages are the same across the whole world, we will always see people from poorer countries being prepared to do work for lower wages, and putting up with poorer conditions. Sad but true. It's increasingly happening in creative industries too, with the rise of websites like Fiverr that flood the market with people prepared to write software or copy for websites etc, or design logos, for pennies.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
NickR
17 April 2020 09:02:22


 


But the moment these countries allow international travel again and lift lockdowns, Covid will start spreading. This virus is incredible and cant be stopped, until an effective vaccine can be distributed


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Lot of assumptions there. I'll just note that the science appears less fatalistic than you about those countries keeping a lid on things.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gavin D
17 April 2020 09:06:42

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