theweatheroutlook

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Gandalf The White
20 April 2020 16:49:37


 


I think we will see a jump tomorrow 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


If you look at the graph closely and at the analysis of the daily death figures (a couple of pages back) you might reach a different conclusion. I would put the odds on a 'jump' at around 10%; a slight uptick is more probable (than that) but I'd still say a further decline is not far off 50/50.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
20 April 2020 16:51:02

ZM416 has departed RAF Brize Norton en-route to Turkey to pick up medical supplies for the NHS

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

  Let’s hope it’s a successful trip this time!  


I’ve just been reading a report from our local, Sherwood Forest NHS Trust and they are reporting no problems with PPE or staff testing.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gandalf The White
20 April 2020 16:52:02


 


Yes, I know that, I know a business in such a position.


Question is, if restrictions go, if case build again then how willing will people be to buy things? Imo, less so than they are now because fear would increase and people think simply about survival.


Now you're a good compassionate man so i don't think you would take a trumpian view of this? It really is about least awful 'solutions' isn't it? Lockdown, with pauses and hopefully progress in treatments,  is still that 'solution' imo.


 


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Exactly; this is absolutely about least bad outcomes. I expect very slow incremental changes with a huge emphasis on continued social distancing.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
20 April 2020 16:52:47


 I think we will see a jump tomorrow 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I can't see why the weekend effect won't continue, but at a lower level as the overall downward trend is obvious now and it matches the timing of the shutdown. The problem/worry is that this downward trend will not be steep and we'll just have a relative plateau of 300-800 deaths 'daily' for the next 2-3 weeks.


To an extent, that what's flattening the peak means, we avoided a very sharp peak (which could have swamped the NHS) and we'll probably get a flatter and fatter curve now. 

Chunky Pea
20 April 2020 16:53:02


 


Yes, I know that, I know a business in such a position.


Question is, if restrictions go, if case build again then how willing will people be to buy things? Imo, less so than they are now because fear would increase and people think simply about survival.


Now you're a good compassionate man so i don't think you would take a trumpian view of this? It really is about least awful 'solutions' isn't it? Lockdown, with pauses and hopefully progress in treatments,  is still that 'solution' imo.


 


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


What about those who depend on sole trader/ small businesses (irrespective of whether they provide essential or non-essential goods) for employment? Saint & Lionel makes good points in that there is very real world consequences. 


It would seem to me that those who come out with such comments are those who don't have to worry about day to day financial security. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
idj20
20 April 2020 16:55:57


I've come to terms with pub no opening for a long time, but I think we can safely allow normal shops and restaurants to re-open on May 7


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Dare I say it but given the nature of some of those places (including a nightclub) here at Folkestone Harbour, that isn't really a bad thing. 

Folkestone Harbour. 
David M Porter
20 April 2020 16:57:54


 


 


FFS


Pakistan and India should be totally closed off. We may as well unfurl a red carpet for another surge of coronavirus infections.


This is utter madness.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Does anyone have any figures for overall Covid-19 infections and deaths in those countries?


If they are virus hotspots, it is bonkers IMO to be allowing travel between the UK and India & Pakistan.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Devonian
20 April 2020 16:59:37


 


What about those who depend on sole trader/ small businesses (irrespective of whether they provide essential or non-essential goods) for employment? Saint & Lionel makes good points in that there is very real world consequences. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Well, people are more likely to call such traders in if they feel the chances they wont catch something fatal from them is low? if we lift the lockdown and in three weeks time cases rapidly rise you think the nation (any nation, yours or mine) will be in a better or worse place? The answer is: a worse place.


Like I say, this is about least awful solutions.

Chunky Pea
20 April 2020 17:01:23


 


Does anyone have any figures for overall Covid-19 infections and deaths in those countries?


 


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Relatively low, all things considering. 


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases


 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
speckledjim
20 April 2020 17:04:32


 


Well, people are more likely to call such traders in if they feel the chances they wont catch something fatal from them is low? if we lift the lockdown and in three weeks time cases rapidly rise you think the nation (any nation, yours or mine) will be in a better or worse place? The answer is: a worse place.


Like I say, this is about least awful solutions.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


The lockdown will be eased piecemeal as per other countries. That will help check any rapid rise in cases and if needs be we can tighten again. So far there has been no adverse effects in either Austria or Denmark to their easing so fingers crossed that continues.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Heavy Weather 2013
20 April 2020 17:05:59


Chief Scientific Adviser Angela McLean says idea that allowing Liverpool/Atletico game to proceed may have increased spread of #coronavirus is an 'interesting hypothesis.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gandalf The White
20 April 2020 17:06:42


 


I can't see why the weekend effect won't continue, but at a lower level as the overall downward trend is obvious now and it matches the timing of the shutdown. The problem/worry is that this downward trend will not be steep and we'll just have a relative plateau of 300-800 deaths 'daily' for the next 2-3 weeks.


To an extent, that what's flattening the peak means, we avoided a very sharp peak (which could have swamped the NHS) and we'll probably get a flatter and fatter curve now. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


There was only a modest 'weekend effect' last weekend, despite it being a 4-day Bank Holiday. That's why I'm hopeful that we won't see a 'jump' tomorrrow.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
20 April 2020 17:11:49

Shambles Alert

We were told 84 tonnes of PPE would arrive on Sunday.

Key Points

This has been delayed until at least tomorrow
Plane has only just left
Capacity of plane is on 38 tonnes
Turkey say they only got the request on Sunday.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
20 April 2020 17:14:14


 


Indeed.


Without stringent control this virus might well wipe out several hundred thousand people in the UK every year, for several years. Anyone putting the economy before that (and i don't think anyone here actually is) are not, imo, worthy or the name human. Further, without stringent control the virus would let rip and all those working and being protected now (from those keeping the net going, to those driving vans, to the NHS to those keeping water and drains running, the armed serviced) would get picked off by it and many of them refuse to work out of fear of crippling illness.


Let Covid rip in a densely population nation and a whole nation would be in fear - economies can't work in such conditions. Our hope is stringent control - it IS working.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 



Worst of worst case scenarios, the death rate is nowhere near high enough to cause such carnage especially in those of working age.

North York Moors weather 
The Beast from the East
20 April 2020 17:14:28

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 April 2020 17:18:01

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Darren S
20 April 2020 17:20:58


 


If you look at the graph closely and at the analysis of the daily death figures (a couple of pages back) you might reach a different conclusion. I would put the odds on a 'jump' at around 10%; a slight uptick is more probable (than that) but I'd still say a further decline is not far off 50/50.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I'm wondering if, because of the recent increase in capacity, test results are coming back quicker now then they were previously? This might have caused an artificial increase in the number of tests being concluded as the backlog was cleared? Today's big drop in Tier 1 positives (lowest since March 31st) may be more representative of the current situation.


The COVID symptom tracker app's website believes that symptomatic cases have decreased from 2 million on 1st April, to 460,000 now.


https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
The Beast from the East
20 April 2020 17:21:31

Bozzer might as well just take the rest of the year off. 


 



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 April 2020 17:25:07

If North Korea did newspapers.....


Image

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
xioni2
20 April 2020 17:29:05


Shambles Alert

We were told 84 tonnes of PPE would arrive on Sunday.

Turkey say they only got the request on Sunday.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


If true, it's just more incompetence and dishonesty by our government. It reminds me of what happened with testing:


"The lack of action on testing was confirmed by Doris-Ann Williams, chief executive of the British In Vitro Diagnostics Association, which represents 110 companies that make up most of the UK’s testing sector. Amazingly, she says her organisation did not receive a meaningful approach from the government asking for help until April 1 — the night before Hancock bowed to pressure and announced a belated and ambitious target of 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month."


Yet, the govt kept saying during the last week of March that it was ramping up testing.

Phil G
20 April 2020 17:42:27
Just heard on Look East a number of sites in South Essex have not reported their death counts today, and to expect higher figures thereafter.
It really needs a moving 5 day average on figures as you cannot take one day in isolation. Last night Gavin and Steve provided some weekly data which 'cleaned up' the blips.
Gavin D
20 April 2020 17:43:20

France



  • 2,489 new cases 

  • 547 new deaths

Gooner
20 April 2020 17:44:29


 


If you look at the graph closely and at the analysis of the daily death figures (a couple of pages back) you might reach a different conclusion. I would put the odds on a 'jump' at around 10%; a slight uptick is more probable (than that) but I'd still say a further decline is not far off 50/50.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Lets see 


I'm expecting a jump mainly because of a weekend lag , just my opinion , not worth a debate 


When I say a jump I don't mean 300 or 400 , I'm thinking back into the 600's , I would say a decent chance of that …...as I say IMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
20 April 2020 17:47:13

it was always going to happen one day with the decline of British manufacturing and unsupportive British governments in the seventies 


It has bitten us in the arse at the worst possible time.




Shambles Alert

We were told 84 tonnes of PPE would arrive on Sunday.

Key Points

This has been delayed until at least tomorrow
Plane has only just left
Capacity of plane is on 38 tonnes
Turkey say they only got the request on Sunday.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Gooner
20 April 2020 17:47:44


 


I can't see why the weekend effect won't continue, but at a lower level as the overall downward trend is obvious now and it matches the timing of the shutdown. The problem/worry is that this downward trend will not be steep and we'll just have a relative plateau of 300-800 deaths 'daily' for the next 2-3 weeks.


To an extent, that what's flattening the peak means, we avoided a very sharp peak (which could have swamped the NHS) and we'll probably get a flatter and fatter curve now. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


So a jump back up from today is possible ? 


I'm not for one minute predicting jaw dropping numbers but back up into the 600's 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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