Greece has a new problem:

https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/04/21/greece-puts-kranidi-in-strict-lockdown-after-150-migrants-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

• yet they still anticipate having a tourist season this summer.

I really think not - anyone who gets on a plane to jet off on a holiday this summer is asking for trouble one way or another.

My issue isn't that they have made mistakes. They have made major mistakes, of course, but at the outset their arguments for taking the position they were seemed coherent. There's been a level of incompetence (the Turkish PPE farce being the most recent) subsequently, but this is an unprecedented situation.

There's an underlying problem since 2010 that the NHS is chronically under-resourced for political ideology reasons, stripping it of any capacity to cope with even relatively modest upticks in demand (see 'winter crisis' reports year after year). But whilst some shysters like Gove were around then, the main components of this Govt weren't in positions of power.

No, my point is that they are using taxpayer money to lie and manipulate social media (using fake/bot accounts - indefensible IMO) in order to wage a propaganda war to cover up and deny their mistakes, errors & incompetence. 

Such is the level of hold that SM seems to have with a large proportion of the electorate - especially when the falsehoods feed into the echo chamber of a person's prejudices, conspiracy theories and inaccurate opinions - that this prevents the government being properly held to account. As with Trump in the US, the government becomes able to 'get away with whatever they like', as a few carefully-crafted fake Tweets and FB posts appearing to come from impartial people (eg, fake NHS workers supporting Boris) will convince people desperate to be convinced that justified criticism the government is receiving isn't warranted.

Even at the most basic level, this is bad for democracy.

Don't worry - it will be back to 400 tomorrow. When will people start to accept that these daily figures are totally meaningless. Trends, trends, trends. Which is downwards not upwards atm.

Whilst your post is , the point is that the propaganda is there to cover-up the mistakes and incompetence of government and create a false impression amongst the general public/electorate that many NHS professionals are supportive of the government and its CV policies, when the overwhelming majority of NHS professionals from what I can glean from genuine people think this government has been shambolic.

Indeed - you have to smooth the numbers over several days.

Something which has puzzled me and which still puzzles me, is how Spain managed to get a much quicker and more dramatic reduction in fatality rates than have comparable countries like Italy and France.

I am suspicious of any official stats out of any region or country and I don't see any earthly reason why Spain should have been reducing infection and death rates more quickly than either France or Italy.

On the topic of stats, those out of Turkey are under analysis now - looks as though the Turkish government has been engaged in a massive cover-up:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/world/middleeast/coronavirus-turkey-deaths.html

"For weeks President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has presented Turkey’s performance in handling the coronavirus as one of the world’s most successful, as he maintained strict control over information about the outbreak.

The presidential palace rolled out a carefully orchestrated propaganda campaign, ensuring reports from hospitals, grave sites and mourning relatives remained virtually absent. Doctors who spoke out on social media were reprimanded, and 410 people were detained in March for “provocative and abusive” posts.

But data compiled by The New York Times from records of deaths in Istanbul indicate that Turkey is grappling with a far bigger calamity from the coronavirus than official figures and statements would suggest. The city recorded about 2,100 more deaths than expected from March 9 to April 12, based on weekly averages from the last two years, far more than officials reported for the whole of Turkey during that time.

..."

Bit unfair, Nick.

I've said several times that the policy this government absolutely needs to implement is one of test-trace-isolate - and it was you, Xioni & others explaining it that convinced me. 

Will they do this? Almost certainly not, because they seem unwilling to devote the substantial level of resources required (which seems odd given the money the lockdown is costing) and impose some temporary curtailment of civil liberties.

So that leaves us in, like I say, a limbo between now and a vaccine being widely distributed. I don't believe the economy can sustain this level of economic stasis for much longer. I don't want the impact of this to lead to economic depression (and grow ever more fearful that Sunak won't use 'helicopter money' to pay for all this), which under a typically heartless Tory regime would lead to way more than a few hundred lives a day lost (a conservative - 'scuse the pun - estimate of lives lost to austerity is 100,000) and deliver a ready-made excuse to slash public services and welfare payments even more.

I'm not buying the government propaganda, just trying to view the wider societal picture and implications beyond the prism of CV.

Not sure it was too much , but we are relying on humans to do the reporting , at the best of times it can be misleading but  in the chaotic world of reporting deaths from every county must be pretty hard to get the cast iron facts 

My outlaws are planning on going to France in July …………….utter madness 

Just looking at some data here, and the median age of those who have died from Covid here in Ireland now stands at 84, which is up from 81, which is 3 years above the national average in more 'normal' times. 

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/coronavirus-ireland-updates

I wonder how the UK compares in this regard? 

Latest NHS England deaths by actual days chart for Tuesday 21st April including latest ONS figures. Open in new tab for full size.

Here's the latest on England's deaths recorded vs. date of death figures. There were a lot more historical deaths recorded today, and slightly more recent deaths, which all suggests the weekend effect is alive and kicking.

Latest pivot-table for 21/04 at 2PM for NHS England hospital daily deaths on day they occurred, built up by day reported. Expected post-weekend catchup plus quite a lot of data from previous weeks too. pic.twitter.com/cxjE8Y2Vm3

— RP 13 (@RP131) April 21, 2020

What on earth is their thinking?

You may well be correct. However, I suggest waiting until July to decide definitively. I am due to go on holiday to Italy in mid-July - I booked it in January. While I certainly wouldn't book holidays there now, neither would I cancel the holiday quite yet. Mid July is three months away. Things may will have improved by then. On balance, probably not by enough to allow for holidays. But I wouldn't rule it out entirely yet. You just never know.

I would add that whatever your outlaws plans are, facts on the ground will ultimately decide whether they actually go or not. For example, will bars and restaurants still be shut in July? Would they be forced to self isolate on their return? If the answer to any of these questions is Yes, I suspect that they won't be going. In any case, there could be effective travel bans still in place in July.

I was reading the other day that unemployment in the US have reached 'great depression' levels. It remains to be seen what impact this 'lockdown' is going to have in the longer term. We can be sure of one thing though, the Government, and the majority of those who are of the unproductive class, won't suffer any substantial loss of income. 

March deaths in England reported on:
08/04 23
09/04 56
10/04 28
11/04 12
12/04 5
13/04 12
14/04 7
15/04 7
16/04 9
17/04 16
18/04 25
19/04 3
20/04 4
21/04 43

A lot of catching up in today's reported death total.

My brother is counting the days but at least he and his wife are now eating and sleeping in the same room.  She had to distance for three weeks as she was working to begin with.  Has your step dad had a call from someone in government about being given weekly food parcels?  

We've got a holiday in France booked at the end of July. Drive down to Portsmouth, overnight ferry in a cabin, drive to the Vendee. Safer-sounding than a plane journey and I'd be willing to risk it if lockdown measures were relaxed.

A long weekend to Spain booked for a couple weeks earlier... don't think this will happen, but I'm more likely to reschedule for, say, September, than cancel

Yes, not much fun on holidays if everywhere is shut, even the beaches. 

I'm really not sure what we'll do. As I said above, I think that it's too early to decide for definite. 

A gripe..

But am I the only one which thinks these little buzz terms like 'social distancing' and 'self isolation' and a new one I heard recently 'cocooning' are not only an affront to one's base intelligence, but also cynically designed to sound super trendy and 'hash tag' friendly? 

I genuinely fear that if I hear anyone stating that they are 'self cocooning' without any sense of irony I think I might just engage in a good old fashioned head nut. 

Just for info, Pennine Acute NHS trust has reported 88 deaths today boosting its total deaths to 264 (was 176 before todays results). Some of these deaths occurred in March and it would seem this is another example where an authority has released a lot of data in one go rather than spreading it out more evenly. Not sure why, could be several reasons.

Looking back at the data on the days deaths actually occurred, it looks like the maximum >700 deaths per day over a series of days has now decreased to c. 600 deaths per day.

I think the Med countries are hoping to salvage July-September by using health passports, i.e. tourists testing negative just before they travel. It could be possible but it'd rely on several factors:

• availability of reliable mass testing


• epidemic being under control in Europe (very low number of infections) 


• Demand for this

JFF model is going for 2302 pillar 1 today, with 4301 confirmed it looks a long shot however pillar 1 and the total are now starting to rapidly dirverge.

Best of British to them. I won't be booking a Med holiday during that period as much as I would like to. Our budget would stretch to flying Club Europe, hiring a car at destination and staying in a good boutique hotel with fewer customers than a big package holiday set-up. Health passports or not we won't be doing it unless C19 dramatically fades. Anyone thinking of sardining on an Easy Jet (and even with the middle seats out it still will be) and staying in a block hotel after a coach transfer is barking. (IMHO only of course).