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Maunder Minimum
21 April 2020 14:12:13

Greece has a new problem:


https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/04/21/greece-puts-kranidi-in-strict-lockdown-after-150-migrants-test-positive-for-coronavirus/



  • yet they still anticipate having a tourist season this summer.


I really think not - anyone who gets on a plane to jet off on a holiday this summer is asking for trouble one way or another.


New world order coming.
Saint Snow
21 April 2020 14:19:11


Frankly mixing festering Brexit arguments with Covid-19 anxieties is neither relevant nor very tasteful.


FWIW I voted to remain, but I also voted for a Conservative administration because the previous Labour opposition (under Corbyn) was even worse, which doesn't say much for UK politicians at all. I truly hope that Keir Starmer rewards his supporters and the Labour party as a whole by demonstrating that there is a constructive alternative.


I'm truly open minded about this, but continually criticising the current administration isn't a solution IMO


Edit: I'm not defending many of the seemingly bad decisions made, I'm just saying don't mix Brexit with Covid and let's get a decent opposition who can demonstrate they're up for the job. 


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


 


My issue isn't that they have made mistakes. They have made major mistakes, of course, but at the outset their arguments for taking the position they were seemed coherent. There's been a level of incompetence (the Turkish PPE farce being the most recent) subsequently, but this is an unprecedented situation.


There's an underlying problem since 2010 that the NHS is chronically under-resourced for political ideology reasons, stripping it of any capacity to cope with even relatively modest upticks in demand (see 'winter crisis' reports year after year). But whilst some shysters like Gove were around then, the main components of this Govt weren't in positions of power.


No, my point is that they are using taxpayer money to lie and manipulate social media (using fake/bot accounts - indefensible IMO) in order to wage a propaganda war to cover up and deny their mistakes, errors & incompetence. 


Such is the level of hold that SM seems to have with a large proportion of the electorate - especially when the falsehoods feed into the echo chamber of a person's prejudices, conspiracy theories and inaccurate opinions - that this prevents the government being properly held to account. As with Trump in the US, the government becomes able to 'get away with whatever they like', as a few carefully-crafted fake Tweets and FB posts appearing to come from impartial people (eg, fake NHS workers supporting Boris) will convince people desperate to be convinced that justified criticism the government is receiving isn't warranted.


Even at the most basic level, this is bad for democracy.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
21 April 2020 14:20:47

NHS England report 778 new deaths up from 429 yesterday

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Don't worry - it will be back to 400 tomorrow. When will people start to accept that these daily figures are totally meaningless. Trends, trends, trends. Which is downwards not upwards atm.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Saint Snow
21 April 2020 14:26:29


 


I think you're giving them more credit than they deserve. To suggest a propaganda campaign implies they knew what they were doing and had a clear plan.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


Whilst your post is , the point is that the propaganda is there to cover-up the mistakes and incompetence of government and create a false impression amongst the general public/electorate that many NHS professionals are supportive of the government and its CV policies, when the overwhelming majority of NHS professionals from what I can glean from genuine people think this government has been shambolic.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Maunder Minimum
21 April 2020 14:27:14


 


Don't worry - it will be back to 400 tomorrow. When will people start to accept that these daily figures are totally meaningless. Trends, trends, trends. Which is downwards not upwards atm.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Indeed - you have to smooth the numbers over several days.


Something which has puzzled me and which still puzzles me, is how Spain managed to get a much quicker and more dramatic reduction in fatality rates than have comparable countries like Italy and France.


I am suspicious of any official stats out of any region or country and I don't see any earthly reason why Spain should have been reducing infection and death rates more quickly than either France or Italy.


On the topic of stats, those out of Turkey are under analysis now - looks as though the Turkish government has been engaged in a massive cover-up:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/world/middleeast/coronavirus-turkey-deaths.html


"For weeks President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has presented Turkey’s performance in handling the coronavirus as one of the world’s most successful, as he maintained strict control over information about the outbreak.


The presidential palace rolled out a carefully orchestrated propaganda campaign, ensuring reports from hospitals, grave sites and mourning relatives remained virtually absent. Doctors who spoke out on social media were reprimanded, and 410 people were detained in March for “provocative and abusive” posts.


But data compiled by The New York Times from records of deaths in Istanbul indicate that Turkey is grappling with a far bigger calamity from the coronavirus than official figures and statements would suggest. The city recorded about 2,100 more deaths than expected from March 9 to April 12, based on weekly averages from the last two years, far more than officials reported for the whole of Turkey during that time.


..."


New world order coming.
Saint Snow
21 April 2020 14:37:03


 


How many deaths a day has SK had to live with, without being in lockdown?


Let's see how many NZ and Aus have to live with when they ease lockdown.


If even you accept those expectations for what is "OK", Saint, then the govt really has done its propaganda job well.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


 


Bit unfair, Nick.


I've said several times that the policy this government absolutely needs to implement is one of test-trace-isolate - and it was you, Xioni & others explaining it that convinced me. 


Will they do this? Almost certainly not, because they seem unwilling to devote the substantial level of resources required (which seems odd given the money the lockdown is costing) and impose some temporary curtailment of civil liberties.


So that leaves us in, like I say, a limbo between now and a vaccine being widely distributed. I don't believe the economy can sustain this level of economic stasis for much longer. I don't want the impact of this to lead to economic depression (and grow ever more fearful that Sunak won't use 'helicopter money' to pay for all this), which under a typically heartless Tory regime would lead to way more than a few hundred lives a day lost (a conservative - 'scuse the pun - estimate of lives lost to austerity is 100,000) and deliver a ready-made excuse to slash public services and welfare payments even more.


I'm not buying the government propaganda, just trying to view the wider societal picture and implications beyond the prism of CV.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
21 April 2020 14:43:32


 


You did indeed and my optimism was misplaced.


The breakdown is important, though: a lot of catching up in there again.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Not sure it was too much , but we are relying on humans to do the reporting , at the best of times it can be misleading but  in the chaotic world of reporting deaths from every county must be pretty hard to get the cast iron facts 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
21 April 2020 14:44:43


Greece has a new problem:


https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/04/21/greece-puts-kranidi-in-strict-lockdown-after-150-migrants-test-positive-for-coronavirus/



  • yet they still anticipate having a tourist season this summer.


I really think not - anyone who gets on a plane to jet off on a holiday this summer is asking for trouble one way or another.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


My outlaws are planning on going to France in July …………….utter madness 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chunky Pea
21 April 2020 14:52:30

Just looking at some data here, and the median age of those who have died from Covid here in Ireland now stands at 84, which is up from 81, which is 3 years above the national average in more 'normal' times. 


https://www.irishcentral.com/news/coronavirus-ireland-updates


 


I wonder how the UK compares in this regard? 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
SJV
21 April 2020 14:55:06

Latest NHS England deaths by actual days chart for Tuesday 21st April including latest ONS figures. Open in new tab for full size.


 


Heavy Weather 2013
21 April 2020 14:59:44
My step dad has received another letter from the NHS saying he needs to shield for a further 12 weeks from 16/04/2020
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Darren S
21 April 2020 14:59:56

Here's the latest on England's deaths recorded vs. date of death figures. There were a lot more historical deaths recorded today, and slightly more recent deaths, which all suggests the weekend effect is alive and kicking.




Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Maunder Minimum
21 April 2020 15:00:02


 


My outlaws are planning on going to France in July …………….utter madness 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


What on earth is their thinking?


New world order coming.
Lionel Hutz
21 April 2020 15:00:58


 


My outlaws are planning on going to France in July …………….utter madness 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


You may well be correct. However, I suggest waiting until July to decide definitively. I am due to go on holiday to Italy in mid-July - I booked it in January. While I certainly wouldn't book holidays there now, neither would I cancel the holiday quite yet. Mid July is three months away. Things may will have improved by then. On balance, probably not by enough to allow for holidays. But I wouldn't rule it out entirely yet. You just never know.


I would add that whatever your outlaws plans are, facts on the ground will ultimately decide whether they actually go or not. For example, will bars and restaurants still be shut in July? Would they be forced to self isolate on their return? If the answer to any of these questions is Yes, I suspect that they won't be going. In any case, there could be effective travel bans still in place in July.


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Lionel Hutz
21 April 2020 15:02:03


 


What on earth is their thinking?


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 



Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Chunky Pea
21 April 2020 15:03:08


 


 


Bit unfair, Nick.


I've said several times that the policy this government absolutely needs to implement is one of test-trace-isolate - and it was you, Xioni & others explaining it that convinced me. 


Will they do this? Almost certainly not, because they seem unwilling to devote the substantial level of resources required (which seems odd given the money the lockdown is costing) and impose some temporary curtailment of civil liberties.


So that leaves us in, like I say, a limbo between now and a vaccine being widely distributed. I don't believe the economy can sustain this level of economic stasis for much longer. I don't want the impact of this to lead to economic depression (and grow ever more fearful that Sunak won't use 'helicopter money' to pay for all this), which under a typically heartless Tory regime would lead to way more than a few hundred lives a day lost (a conservative - 'scuse the pun - estimate of lives lost to austerity is 100,000) and deliver a ready-made excuse to slash public services and welfare payments even more.


I'm not buying the government propaganda, just trying to view the wider societal picture and implications beyond the prism of CV.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I was reading the other day that unemployment in the US have reached 'great depression' levels. It remains to be seen what impact this 'lockdown' is going to have in the longer term. We can be sure of one thing though, the Government, and the majority of those who are of the unproductive class, won't suffer any substantial loss of income. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Darren S
21 April 2020 15:06:21

March deaths in England reported on:
08/04 23
09/04 56
10/04 28
11/04 12
12/04 5
13/04 12
14/04 7
15/04 7
16/04 9
17/04 16
18/04 25
19/04 3
20/04 4
21/04 43


A lot of catching up in today's reported death total.


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 April 2020 15:07:57

My step dad has received another letter from the NHS saying he needs to shield for a further 12 weeks from 16/04/2020

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Oh dear!  That’s a bit of a blow if he was expecting only another 7 weeks.  I wonder if they’re sending to everyone who’s shielding?  


My brother is counting the days but at least he and his wife are now eating and sleeping in the same room.  She had to distance for three weeks as she was working to begin with.  Has your step dad had a call from someone in government about being given weekly food parcels?  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Saint Snow
21 April 2020 15:11:07


 


You may well be correct. However, I suggest waiting until July to decide definitively. I am due to go on holiday to Italy in mid-July - I booked it in January. While I certainly wouldn't book holidays there now, neither would I cancel the holiday quite yet. Mid July is three months away. Things may will have improved by then. On balance, probably not by enough to allow for holidays. But I wouldn't rule it out entirely yet. You just never know.


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


 


We've got a holiday in France booked at the end of July. Drive down to Portsmouth, overnight ferry in a cabin, drive to the Vendee. Safer-sounding than a plane journey and I'd be willing to risk it if lockdown measures were relaxed.


A long weekend to Spain booked for a couple weeks earlier... don't think this will happen, but I'm more likely to reschedule for, say, September, than cancel



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Lionel Hutz
21 April 2020 15:14:55


 


 


We've got a holiday in France booked at the end of July. Drive down to Portsmouth, overnight ferry in a cabin, drive to the Vendee. Safer-sounding than a plane journey and I'd be willing to risk it if lockdown measures were relaxed.


A long weekend to Spain booked for a couple weeks earlier... don't think this will happen, but I'm more likely to reschedule for, say, September, than cancel


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yes, not much fun on holidays if everywhere is shut, even the beaches. 


I'm really not sure what we'll do. As I said above, I think that it's too early to decide for definite. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Chunky Pea
21 April 2020 15:17:42

A gripe..


But am I the only one which thinks these little buzz terms like 'social distancing' and 'self isolation' and a new one I heard recently 'cocooning' are not only an affront to one's base intelligence, but also cynically designed to sound super trendy and 'hash tag' friendly? 


I genuinely fear that if I hear anyone stating that they are 'self cocooning' without any sense of irony I think I might just engage in a good old fashioned head nut. 


 


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
JHutch
21 April 2020 15:22:07

Just for info, Pennine Acute NHS trust has reported 88 deaths today boosting its total deaths to 264 (was 176 before todays results). Some of these deaths occurred in March and it would seem this is another example where an authority has released a lot of data in one go rather than spreading it out more evenly. Not sure why, could be several reasons.


Looking back at the data on the days deaths actually occurred, it looks like the maximum >700 deaths per day over a series of days has now decreased to c. 600 deaths per day.

xioni2
21 April 2020 15:23:44


Greece has a new problem:


https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/04/21/greece-puts-kranidi-in-strict-lockdown-after-150-migrants-test-positive-for-coronavirus/



  • yet they still anticipate having a tourist season this summer.


I really think not - anyone who gets on a plane to jet off on a holiday this summer is asking for trouble one way or another.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I think the Med countries are hoping to salvage July-September by using health passports, i.e. tourists testing negative just before they travel. It could be possible but it'd rely on several factors:



  • availability of reliable mass testing

  • epidemic being under control in Europe (very low number of infections) 

  • Demand for this

Quantum
21 April 2020 15:28:25

JFF model is going for 2302 pillar 1 today, with 4301 confirmed it looks a long shot however pillar 1 and the total are now starting to rapidly dirverge.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
21 April 2020 15:31:14


 


I think the Med countries are hoping to salvage July-September by using health passports, i.e. tourists testing negative just before they travel. It could be possible but it'd rely on several factors:



  • availability of reliable mass testing

  • epidemic being under control in Europe (very low number of infections) 

  • Demand for this


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Best of British to them. I won't be booking a Med holiday during that period as much as I would like to. Our budget would stretch to flying Club Europe, hiring a car at destination and staying in a good boutique hotel with fewer customers than a big package holiday set-up. Health passports or not we won't be doing it unless C19 dramatically fades. Anyone thinking of sardining on an Easy Jet (and even with the middle seats out it still will be) and staying in a block hotel after a coach transfer is barking. (IMHO only of course).


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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