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Bugglesgate
24 April 2020 13:06:59

OK, I'll bite.


What  is he basing this on  (can   you read the rest of the article)?  What other Coronaviruses  "die out" for no particular reason after a pre defined 70 days  ?  Without cast iron, copper bottomed answers  to those points it's pure bullsh*it.



 


As you know I am inclined to agree on that point. However, to play devil's advocate this is worth a read:


Coronavirus dies out within 70 days no matter how we tackle it, claims professor



Prof Isaac Ben-Israel claims that his analysis shows that the virus is self-limiting and peaks at 40 days before entering a rapid decline


But one Israeli professor claims that all efforts will lead to the same result, because the disease is self-limiting, and largely vanishes after 70 days, with or without any interventions.


Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, claims that his analysis proves Covid-19 peaks at 40 days before rapidly declining.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/coronavirus-dies-within-70-days-no-matter-tackle-claims-professor/


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Joe Bloggs
24 April 2020 13:07:00

If the lockdown continues, beyond May, then the Government will have no choice but to continue to spend billions on saving jobs and the economy, with other elements of state support continuing for the foreseeable future. 


If a decision is made that this state support will need to stop, with the lockdown continuing into the summer, to save lives, I don’t want to imagine what the outcome could look like. Lives would be saved but there would be a whole raft of societal issues would turn very ugly, very quickly. 


We really are up sh*t creek without a paddle and I don’t envy the decision makers at the moment.


We need to somehow find some kind of compromise. It will not be easy. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
bledur
24 April 2020 13:07:58


 


So that is how Sweden did it! Snus is very popular in Sweden - many men use it at least (and we know men are more susceptible to the virus).


I have tried it myself when in Denmark - it is vile, tastes nasty and I would not recommend it. Apparently, long term use can lead to cancer inside the mouth too.


But those who use it, stick the pouch in the upper mouth between the teeth and the cheek, leading to a hamster look.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 I had a spell using it and as you say tastes vile but does give you a buzz and probably causes  mouth cancer and tooth loss . Perhaps snuff would be safer . both my grandfathers took snuff .

Bolty
24 April 2020 13:10:22
Just been to the shop. There's no way this is still a "lockdown" anymore as it almost looks like a typical Friday afternoon. In fact, the only thing that was different was I still had to queue going into the shop.

It's getting to be a joke this now.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Quantum
24 April 2020 13:11:10


 


As you know I am inclined to agree on that point. However, to play devil's advocate this is worth a read:


Coronavirus dies out within 70 days no matter how we tackle it, claims professor



Prof Isaac Ben-Israel claims that his analysis shows that the virus is self-limiting and peaks at 40 days before entering a rapid decline


But one Israeli professor claims that all efforts will lead to the same result, because the disease is self-limiting, and largely vanishes after 70 days, with or without any interventions.


Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, claims that his analysis proves Covid-19 peaks at 40 days before rapidly declining.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/coronavirus-dies-within-70-days-no-matter-tackle-claims-professor/


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I mean I don't disagree that without intervention this is probably true. It would just mean accepting potentially millions of deaths. Also you would have to hope that immunity is robust and long lasting. If it isn't it will return eventually unless every country were to go down this route.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
24 April 2020 13:11:20


 


I read that this morning, shaking my head. He's pulled a number out his butt and assumes it'll work across all countries. I think he'll look a bit silly in the summer, but we'll see.


EDIT: Notwithstanding the fact that we're well over 70 days into the epidemic here in the UK... first cases end of Jan, all of Feb, March and 24 days of April = 84 days and counting!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Agreed.


As it's behind a paywall I Googled him and found other sources for that item.


The guy has no medical expertise or, as far as I can see, relevant scientific expertise, so I'm inclined to dismiss it as the nonsense it seems to be.


For him to be correct it would mean that everyone in the field of epidemiology was wrong; that's just not possible.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
24 April 2020 13:12:03
84 of Wales deaths are from the 20th to 22nd the 24hr figure is 26
Northern Sky
24 April 2020 13:12:48


 


Quite. It can't be good for the economy to have a significant proportion of the contributors dead or dying.


I don't envy the powers that be who are in charge of when and how we will inevitably relax restrictions. What worries me is people and places taking matters into their own hands. That is a recipe for disaster.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


It's an incredibly difficult set of decisions to make. I think it's inevitable that the lockdown will begin to fall apart regardless of what the government says. I'm not sure about the sentence in bold though, all the evidence shows that in the vast majority of cases this is a deadly disease for the old and vulnerable. For the rest of society and in particular the millions of people under 45 the threat is very small. Set that against the fall out from lockdown and all the subsequent health problems that will arise with far reaching consequences and who knows what the best thing is to do?

speckledjim
24 April 2020 13:13:36


If the lockdown continues, beyond May, then the Government will have no choice but to continue to spend billions on saving jobs and the economy, with other elements of state support continuing for the foreseeable future. 


If a decision is made that this state support will need to stop, with the lockdown continuing into the summer, to save lives, I don’t want to imagine what the outcome could look like. Lives would be saved but there would be a whole raft of societal issues would turn very ugly, very quickly. 


We really are up sh*t creek without a paddle and I don’t envy the decision makers at the moment.


We need to somehow find some kind of compromise. It will not be easy. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


There are no easy answers. Hopefully a slow release of the restrictions will keep the virus at bay, appease the masses, and keep the economy ticking over. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gavin D
24 April 2020 13:13:54
Breaking: NHS England report 587 new deaths up from 514 yesterday
Gavin D
24 April 2020 13:24:33

Breakdown of the 587 new deaths in England by date



  • 107 on April 23rd

  • 242 on April 22nd

  • 55 on April 21st

  • 151 between April 1st and April 20th

  • 32 in March with one on March 11th

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
24 April 2020 13:31:03


Agreed.


As it's behind a paywall I Googled him and found other sources for that item.


The guy has no medical expertise or, as far as I can see, relevant scientific expertise, so I'm inclined to dismiss it as the nonsense it seems to be.


For him to be correct it would mean that everyone in the field of epidemiology was wrong; that's just not possible.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


See also


https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/


Asked to explain the phenomenon, Ben-Israel, who also heads Israel’s Space Agency, later said: “I have no explanation. There are all kinds of speculations. Maybe it’s related to climate, or the virus has a life-span of its own.”


He said the policy of lockdowns and closures was a case of “mass hysteria.” Simple social distancing would be sufficient, he said.


 

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
SJV
24 April 2020 13:32:58


 


Agreed.


As it's behind a paywall I Googled him and found other sources for that item.


The guy has no medical expertise or, as far as I can see, relevant scientific expertise, so I'm inclined to dismiss it as the nonsense it seems to be.


For him to be correct it would mean that everyone in the field of epidemiology was wrong; that's just not possible.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Hey, he's standing out from the crowd though now. We've heard of his name all of a sudden. There's no such thing as bad publicity 

Gavin D
24 April 2020 13:34:18

​


 Dr Robin Howe, from Public Health Wales




Quote

“Based on the new case numbers there is emerging evidence suggesting a levelling-off in the number of new cases of Covid-19 in Wales, which may be an indication of the effectiveness of lockdown measures. “However, it is still too early to tell for sure, and it is too soon to end the current social distancing rules.





 


​

Gavin D
24 April 2020 13:39:22

Like for like on the last 3 Fridays



  • 587 - April 24th

  • 738 - April 17th

  • 866 - April 10th

Phil G
24 April 2020 13:51:26


Like for like on the last 3 Fridays



  • 587 - April 24th

  • 738 - April 17th

  • 866 - April 10th


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Have you got a 5 day average for the days leading up to those dates Gavin. I would never take one day in isolation.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 April 2020 13:59:03


As you know I am inclined to agree on that point. However, to play devil's advocate this is worth a read:


Coronavirus dies out within 70 days no matter how we tackle it, claims professor



Prof Isaac Ben-Israel claims that his analysis shows that the virus is self-limiting and peaks at 40 days before entering a rapid decline


But one Israeli professor claims that all efforts will lead to the same result, because the disease is self-limiting, and largely vanishes after 70 days, with or without any interventions.


Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, claims that his analysis proves Covid-19 peaks at 40 days before rapidly declining.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/coronavirus-dies-within-70-days-no-matter-tackle-claims-professor/


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That’s interesting and as daft as it sounds, it’s just a wild hunch as I have no scientific evidence, I have been thinking along similar lines.  Especially as over the past few days the number of cases in most countries seem to be declining despite their actions.  I still have an open mind but it’s good to see all angles being explored. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Retron
24 April 2020 14:05:56


That’s interesting and as daft as it sounds, it’s just a wild hunch as I have no scientific evidence, I have been thinking along similar lines.  Especially as over the past few days the number of cases in most countries seem to be declining despite their actions.  I still have an open mind but it’s good to see all angles being explored. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


As mentioned earlier, it's clearly rubbish to say 70 days, considering it's over 80 for us so far and although cases are declining, it's a slow old process here. It certianly hasn't "almost vanished" and it won't do in the next week either... so that will take us beyond 90 days with ease.


It may be a combination of the various degrees of lockdown / social distancing (yes, even in Sweden) and the oncoming northern summer, but to just say 70 days like that bloke did is barking mad.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
24 April 2020 14:07:10

J Some of you cookery loving, lycra wearing remainer types will never get over it, will you!

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


I neither cook, nor wear lycra!


What is wrong with cooking anyway? Do only middle class do-gooders cook? Do you eat chip butties every day, like a real patriot?


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
xioni2
24 April 2020 14:09:13

I read that if a vaccine is found, the virus will then mutate and become like Alien the movies. 


We got to keep an open mind! 

Phil G
24 April 2020 14:12:28


 


I neither cook, nor wear lycra!


What is wrong with cooking anyway? Do only middle class do-gooders cook? Do you eat chip butties every day, like a real patriot?


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Bet you like Eurovision Beast!

Gooner
24 April 2020 14:13:33

The 70 day argument is difficult as most countries show an improvement after a lockdown ( restriction ) period , so I'm not sure how that can be proved?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin D
24 April 2020 14:15:36
684 deaths

18,401 people tested

5,386 positive
fairweather
24 April 2020 14:16:33


 


I quite agree.  All I’m saying is, I could easily pick up my zoom lens now and go to Asda and take pictures that appear to show people hustling and bustling with each other, even though they are the required 2m apart. 


Originally Posted by: John p 


Not at my Asdas. It is hopelessly controlled. I don't think the manager there really understands it all.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
24 April 2020 14:16:41
768 UK deaths
5.3K new cases

Q will not be happy about those new cases now above 5k again
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
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