Transport data

Haha, taken the gridlines off the transport graph, sorry made them very faint.

Oh dear. I don't know when he made that seep he but I'm guessing it was back in January?

But it does underline the point made some weeks ago that Boris was against putting restrictions in place because it's just not in his personal belief system. 

Cases 

A daily record for Pillar 2. The curve is flattening.

Nope, they're still there.

So much for the Machiavellian wing in here who assumed it was omitted because it showed a failure of the 'lockdown'.  But I suppose someone will suggest the figures have been fixed.....

London now into the 3000s for patients in hospitals

Getting better 👍👍👍

I did amend my post. Yes they are there, but fainter. And the sun was shining on my telly!

It was made on the 3rd of February. There have been leaks and briefings that both scientists and ministers and eventually even Cummings were trying to convince him to lock down in mid-March, but it took them a long time to succeed (23rd).

He genuinely saw Britain as standing up alone as and taking advantage of the panic of other countries.

Is it?

We are in the manufacturing industry are absolutely flat out , our customers have committed order books .

Many restaurants have stayed open and are delivering food

The furlough has actually made people better off because of travel costs are zero , so they will have money to spend 

I have mates who are still busy .

The UK will recover without a doubt  - I'm not sure its as bad as people are saying 

Yes the government will have to recover the large sums of money they have used and no doubt the tax payers will pay , but that's for another day 

I don’t get the significance of what pillar it is. Surely a case is a case, whatever type it is.

The pillar 2 cases are more likely to be mild or asymptomatic as they are tests by type of worker rather than symptoms

Stats clearly going the right way.  Will they keep going in the same direction during the next few weeks? Time will tell but the organic easing of the lockdown and next week's cooler weather could both come into play.

I bet his uberbitch KellyAnn Conway has been haranguing the media, asking them about Covids 1-18.

89% of Brits say they are copying  well during the shutdown, 87% distrust Trump. 

Just to let everyone know I am redesigning the JFF model. Here is the outline:

Essentially it is clear the JFF model is no longer fit for purpose because the underlying assumption regarding infectivity changing over time is no longer true. Therefore I am adding an additional complexity to the model. I will be using 'total motor viechle' traffic as a proxy for infectivity. In other words assuming that there is a linear relationship between this and infectivity. I will be using the govt slides, if anyone knows where I can get the raw numbers from I will appreciate it.

Extrapolating into the future will use a most recent linear trend of the infectivity, so from time to time predictions may change drastically especially if that R0=1 line is crossed which it inevitably will be if infectivity is going up. This version of the JFF model is alot more robust essentially no longer assuming constant changes in behaviour but linear changes in behaviour being allowed. So it will be capable of predicting a 2nd wave due to changing behaviour.

I'll have this up by tommorow.

That means over 10% aren't coping which means 600,000 which isn't very good.

The OBR are predicting GDP to drop by 35% this Spring and they are expecting 2m to lose their jobs by June. 

You mean 6.7 million. 

If the furlough scheme stops AND the lockdown continues then vast, vast numbers of people will become unemployed. We are at a precipice. 

The state support will need to continue for as long as the lockdown lasts. 

This is one paragraph from a long speech about free trade. I'm not convinced the coronavirus reference was much more than an attempt to appear topical as the main point was in relation to trade barriers.  It does not seem to be any kind of statement about public health policy.

The full transcript is here.