It looks like your model assumed that the decrease in cases would have the same gradient as the increase. To achieve that, the R0 number would have had to become the inverse; e.g. 3 to become 0.33 (1/3). Whatever the R0 number actually was before lockdown, it's now between 0.5 and 1.0 by all accounts.

Also, the R0 shouldn't, in theory, change post lockdown, unless there is a change to lockdown rules, or people gradually become better or less well behaved in complying. So if R0 is now 0.8, it has probably been like that or thereabouts since 23rd March. Of course the data would have been subject to the lag since then, as well as the gradual decrease prior to 23/3 as people unilaterally started social distancing. The traffic charts are a good indicator of whether it is changing.

I also think you're on a hiding to nothing trying to predict changes in the number of infections. If you were able to test the entire population daily, then it would. But the number of cases is likely to stay the same or increase, because of the increased number of tests coming online, as was said in this evening's press conference. Maybe modelling the number of people in hospital would be a better approach, because you'd like to think that the criteria for hospital admission in this case remains static?

The fact is Joe the state cannot keep this up for any length of time,it will be economic pressure that lifts this lockdown more than any other factors.

Yes. Crikey!

Predicting and expecting ……..……………..two words often mentioned in the Model Output Thread 

Lets just wait and see shall we 

'IF' and maybe but we don't know , all I can say if what's going on with our customer base ( 500 ish ) and things around here 

The FT estimate the current number of UK deaths at 45,200. Their method looks sound and they will try to do the same analysis for other countries too.

Update: Today, there were 768* hospital deaths announced for those testing postive for Covid-19 to bring the daily total up to 19,506

A cautious estimate of the total number of UK excess deaths linked to coronavirus stands today at

45,200

— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) April 24, 2020

Ah, good point. 

Hi Marcus, I guess a lot of it depends on the sector involved. 

Oh blimey - not a good read 

Hello mate , yes i guess it does 

Revealed: Cummings is on secret scientific advisory group for Covid-19

The prime minister’s chief political adviser, Dominic Cummings, and a data scientist he worked with on the Vote Leave campaign for Brexit are on the secret scientific group advising the government on the coronavirus pandemic, according to a list leaked to the Guardian.

It reveals both Cummings and Ben Warner were among 23 attendees present at a crucial convening of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on 23 March, the day Boris Johnson announced a nationwide lockdown in a televised address.

Multiple attendees of Sage told the Guardian that both Cummings and Warner had been taking part in meetings of the group as far back as February. The inclusion of Downing Street advisers on Sage will raise questions about the independence of its scientific advice.

Sunak and most of the Cabinet don't want to extend furlough past June. There is only so much borrowing you can do. It seems Boris is now the sticking point and born again lockdown convert. Perhaps his personal experience has altered his view

I'll still be circulating it as wideky as I can as part of creating a 'these c*nts aren't just evil, they're idiots as well' narrative. 

You’re preaching to the converted with that statement 😎

That's such a wrong thing to do. 

Bollox !   He was deadly serious.  The bloke is an utter nincompoop. 

Given all they are doing is replacing GDP that is not being generated by productive economic activity, there's a compelling economic argument to use 'helicopter money' to pay for this in order to avoid an onerous deficit and borrowing burden.

Any inflationary pressure would be muted.

The problem with what Trump said is that he is supposed to be able to make rational judgements about situations that could lead to a World War. He is not capable of doing that. It is not possible for a man to have the thought that disinfectants that have been around for a couple of hundred years might simply be injected or swallowed  to cure diseases. Virtually everybody in the world over the  age of 10 would already have realised that.

Well I'm assuming Phil and anyone else on here who defended his comments will now change their tune.

Even if you think he was simple thinking aloud suggestions to help, even Trump has shot that idea down. Turns out he was being sarcastic, which is a cover only the brainwashed could possibly believe, and I don't think we've got any on TWO.

He's trying to save face and steer the embarrassment away from himself, and he's not even doing a good job of that. 

Cummings is pure malevolence. 

London so much busier on the streets... cars, people. The lockdown is slipping down a dreadful chasm in leadership.

— *****Morgan (@piersmorgan) April 24, 2020

That is not true Geoff and I know these things BOE has 200 billion in gold alone also has special arrangement with treasury under exceptional circumstances.

“It is welcome that the Bank of England is using its power to create money to directly finance government spending, after denying that such a tool was on the table.

it won’t be a problem, VAT returns yes a concern but not unmanageable 

Furlough will be extended if need.