Revealed: Cummings is on secret scientific advisory group for Covid-19

The prime minister’s chief political adviser, Dominic Cummings, and a data scientist he worked with on the Vote Leave campaign for Brexit are on the secret scientific group advising the government on the coronavirus pandemic, according to a list leaked to the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-dominic-cummings-on-secret-scientific-advisory-group-for-covid-19

Has the independence of "SAGE" been compromised at this critical time? Some think it has.

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Minus: Even if Cummings was at SAGE as an observer, as is stated, and kept quiet throughout any meeting, his reputation would have inhibited free discussion of issues.

Plus: If the SAGE members had any collective determination, they could have used him as a quick and direct conduit to the PM.

Perhaps it was the latter as things started happening after the March 23rd meeting. 

I see in today's news that the chairman of SAGE has no objection to members' names being published, and given the power that this faceless body has over our lives, IMO it's high time we knew who its members are.

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Agree with this. 

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Coronavirus detected on particles of air pollution

Exclusive: Scientists examine whether this route enables infections at longer distances

Coronavirus has been detected on particles of air pollution by scientists investigating whether this could enable it to be carried over longer distances and increase the number of people infected.

The work is preliminary and it is not yet known if the virus remains viable on pollution particles and in sufficient quantity to cause disease.

The Italian scientists used standard techniques to collect outdoor air pollution samples at one urban and one industrial site in Bergamo province and identified a gene highly specific to Covid-19 in multiple samples. The detection was confirmed by blind testing at an independent laboratory.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution

 

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I guess it's just one of those things - it's so widespread it'll show up everywhere in miniscule amounts. A bit like asbestos and plastic microparticles...

And if SARS-CoV2 is to be found on these particles, you can gaurantee other viruses (such as those which cause a common cold) will also be around...

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Indeed.

Detection techniques are so sensitive now that  miniscule amounts of anything can be  found.  A while back  there was a "whoo Haa" about viruses being detected in the Jet Stream.  I don't think it was  argued that these were in large enough quantities to any kind of danger.

 

 

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Just tried to get a self test. There's no check to see if I'm an essential worker. However, it says capacity reached for today.

https://self-referral.test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk/test-type 

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Is there a central register of Essential Workers ?  I am one, but the only evidence I can produce is a letter from  our CEO.  I'm supposed to use  that in association with my site pass to prove I'm "Essential".

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There isn't a register. Following the sneaky editing of the gov't guidelines to include school support staff (the page says last edited in March, but it wasn't there originally), I'm officially a key worker.

The only way I could prove it in real life would be by showing my school lanyard with its photo ID card... that I printed off myself! (The ID printer is in my office at work).

For things like this online signup, the proper way to do it would be by cross-referencing your NI number, or by using the domain of your work email (as you can't get a .sch.uk address elsewhere, nor can you get a .nhs.uk, .police.uk, .gov.uk address elsewhere). There are two problems with this though - in their infinite wisdom, the Trust of which my school is a member has given everyone an Austrian email address, while students and pupils at unis, colleges and schools traditionally get .sch.uk and .ac.uk addresses too.

The NI number option seems to be the only decent one, validated with an ID card when you turn up (if you drive to a test). (For the private sector, companies would have to provide a list of staff / NI numbers for those deemed key workers).

 

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There is a comprehensive list of key workers’ job categories. I doubt anyone who was not on the list would knowingly try to circumvent this.

I hope you are feeling better soon Brian.

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In ancient days when I studied this stuff there was a concept of an "infective dose" in relation to pathogenic microorganisms. We did not know that much about virus biology then, and I've not caught up with the knowledge pool. This interesting paper of 2011 turned up in my searches and I was impressed by the cautious humility of the final paragraph:

"... the reported infective doses of human viruses may also change if more up to date studies are conducted aided with our improved understanding of viral epidemiology, microbiology, and infection, and utilizing more sensitive virus assay, cultivation, and quantification techniques." Source:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12560-011-9056-7

This is a good up-to-date take on the same question:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/

"...we don’t yet know what that ‘minimum infectious dose’ is for COVID-19, but we might presume it’s around a hundred virus particles."

Roger

 

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As far as I can tell there are no controls in place at all. Anyone can request a test if capacity is available. 

I also wonder how accurate self swabbing will be? Surely a lot of samples won't be valid and a number more will deteriorate in the post. 

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Could a less-than-infective dose (such as might be carried on microparticles) generate antibodies and hence the severity if/when you actually catch Covid? Probably wishful thinking.

The tragic news of the death of twin sisters is a further hint, added to the BAME statistics, that there's a genetic component to covid-19 resistance. Again only speculation and not something to be relied on.

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Interestingly it states on the application process for testing that it is a criminal offence to apply for testing by pretending you are a key worker with a maximum punishment of up to 10 years imprisonment and a fine.

I don’t intend to apply to get tested unless I or any of my immediate family have symptoms.

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Interesting - I'm not sure the threat will deter chancers, mind you! The gov't is overwhelmed as it is... (no sign of any updates regarding free laptops for vulnerable Year 10 children, for example, despite being announced a week ago.)

The one I'm waiting for is the antibody test. Like you, I wouldn't want a covid-19 test unless I was showing symptoms... the time for that was a month ago (when I had those mild flu symptoms), not now. However, if an antibody test was available by the same methods I'd apply for one in a flash: I don't think I actually had covid-19, but there's no way to be sure.

 

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I was wondering yesterday when i was hearing Whitty talk about how many tests were going to be sent out. Nurses i know have talked about how difficult it is to do so i am not sure how successful the general public will be (although some will be health workers)

Following the different countries response and outcomes to the virus.

Mexico may have a few issues developing

Meanwhile Montserrat records first Covid death

I think it's time that a proper assay of the tests that exist, their costs and accuracy was published.

It seems to me that there is a false equivalence being drawn which assumes that a test is a test and that they are all somehow equal. I'm sure that there is a good deal of variability in cost, effectiveness and availability because someone had, very early on, set up quite a big production line for tests which were subsequently shown to be faulty or not as accurate as required. Is there a good explainer anywhere?

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I do tend to agree. While building up capacity is a good thing i do worry that at the moment the focus is too much on a mad dash to get to 100,000 tests by the end of the month however it is done, 'they said we couldn't do it' etc, rather than steadily building capacity of good quality tests.

I’m sure you have to enter your NI number?  I did a bit of research in case my wife (teacher) needs one.

Why are you applying for a test anyway?

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Surly your Government Gateway number would have been the answer with cross referencing NI contributions and ID

could even get one to log in to book test?

 

I agree. But the people in government aren’t immune to the pressure and criticism so you can understand the focus on ramping up capacity.  There have been a lot of hugely critical comments in here about that Hancock promise, for example.

Hopefully - and I’m sure it’s true - people have looked at the quality control side.

 

But some people will always find an angle to be critical or negative, I guess.

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I've heard a number of accounts from people who have relatives who have died in care homes. They are adamant that people in care homes are being refused treatment and are being left to die with only palliative care.

We keep hearing that we have spare capacity in hospitals so why are these residents not being treated. Effectively they are being written off. 

Surely that’s only an option if the database has a specific field with a ‘key worker’ flag - and how would that get populated when it’s not been required until now?

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