Possibly because they started early when there were fewer cases.    Places like Taiwan already had the contact tracing system in place because they’d learnt from their last epidemic.  

Our problem is timescale. To trace all the people with recent contact of the 4,000 testing positive today, is going to take time.  Over a week of testing we need to contact trace for 28,000 people. Assuming each has had contact with 10 others, that’s 280,000.  How many of those will have passed it on before they’re identified and contacted?  Then there’s next week etc. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Too right Marcus. Seems some on here think even without conclusive evidence they are right. Typical remainer trait!

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

That's why we need to reduce the number of new infections and crucially to know where they are. This will probably happen later in May as our testing capacity and criteria improve.

Edit: Germany has a high number of infections too, yet I am confident that they will contain their epidemic. 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

That’s the whole point though.  Crucially, to know exactly where all the cases are, we’d need to test everyone. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Blimey its tough on here this morning - cant we let someone have a POV without getting personal ? 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I don't think that's necessary. Asymptomatic carriers have a much lower R0 due to their lack of coughing and sneezing, they only infect members of their own household (which is less of a problem during a lockdown). 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

People are getting bored. They've been sat at home, which was novel for the first couple of weeks. But they see the decorating or DIY jobs that could do with being done and they have a chunk of free time they've not had before and won't again, so want to utilise that. The great weather adds to this feeling.

You just need to see the queues at the places that happen to sell DIY/garden stuff alongside 'essentials' and it tells it's own tale. The new empty shelves are those of DIY and gardening products, not bread and eggs and tinned food.

Meanwhile, there are other retailers sinking into oblivion because they are prevented from opening, their owners seeing the lucky shops with tills constantly ringing. This is fostering resentment. 

This semi-lockdown is a dog's breakfast and as such people aren't taking the threat seriously so which is adding to the yearning to return to some kind of normal. In short, it's unsustainable. 

I'm not, by the way, wanting it to be ended; I'm not offering an opinion either way. I'm just recognising the reality of what's happening. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I do admire your optimism and I do hope you’re right.  

I just hope people aren’t relying on this being a miracle cure because I really can’t see it being that simple.  Maybe I’m missing something!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

That’s the whole point though.  Crucially, to know exactly where all the cases are, we’d need to test everyone. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I agree.  I can't see a nice way out of this.  There is no way you can bring in "track and trace" with anything like  the number of new cases we are seeing but as lockdown is fraying at the edges  we might even see an uptick during lock down let alone when it is officially loosened.  At the  same time lockdown is causing the Govt an absolute mint  and   aspects of it like dentistry and other medical  services (routine stuff that stops the serious stuff  happening down the track) need to be restarted.

I lay this situation firmly at the door of the selfish and the cretinous that have never  taken Social Distancing  and Stay at Home seriously.  I'm taking my perambulation early   today to avoid them  because I'm getting to the stage where have a mind to be extremely rude to the ones I meet ! 

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

Is there any evidence of the virus being catastrophic and and widespread in a hot and humid country? 

If you look at the situation in SE Asia I think there could be something in that, Brian.

The catastrophes have taken place in temperate, northern latitudes. It could be a small factor, amongst many many others of course. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

If HMG is indeed moving towards a mass testing and tracing strategy, then I am optimistic that the lockdown will gradually be relaxed in the next 2 months and the contagion will be contained without a significant second surge.

It will then be more of a cat and mouse game until the potential mass vaccination. 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I don't think that's necessary. Asymptomatic carriers have a much lower R0 due to their lack of coughing and sneezing, they only infect members of their own household (which is less of a problem during a lockdown). 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Was hoping next 2 weeks!

If its months then many businesses, especially those that rely on tourism like hotels in Cornwall will go bust

Many people will also start dying of other things. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Great post and sums things up perfectly especially the bit highlighted! Imo ALL non essential businesses except those that need mass gatherings should be allowed to re-open.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

Anyone traced to a known carrier through the soon to be released NHS CV19 app will be eligible to order a home swab test kit via the app. The app will log your Bluetooth signals and this will be used to track back your movements should you unknowingly come in close contact with a positive person.

The app is undergoing final trails and will be released before the UK begins to ease restrictions.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Insults instead of data? I think you will find he has got you, Haggis!

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

It can start in mid /late May if the number of infections and hospital admissions comes down. People dying from other things has more to do with how bad the epidemic is and less with the lockdown (people are scared to visit medical facilities, while a killer bug is around).

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Do you not see how that last line is far from helpful?

Originally Posted by: NickR 

How to you practically test 65 million in a reasonable time frame,at the current rate of testing it will take 10 years or more

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

I don't think that's necessary. Asymptomatic carriers have a much lower R0 due to their lack of coughing and sneezing, they only infect members of their own household (which is less of a problem during a lockdown). 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Even then that study from China showed only a 17% transmission rate within households.

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 

I don't think between 4-5k new cases every day since 12th April is a drop in numbers. There is something causing these that needs to be addressed if we are to move on.

Shame as we have certainly had the light, but low humidity.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Agree. Could somebody just clarify if "cases" is hospital admissions or testing positive. Because that is bound to go up with increased testing which we know is happening.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I don't think that's necessary. Asymptomatic carriers have a much lower R0 due to their lack of coughing and sneezing, they only infect members of their own household (which is less of a problem during a lockdown). 

Originally Posted by: xioni2