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xioni2
26 April 2020 08:30:10

Anyone traced to a known carrier through the soon to be released NHS CV19 app will be eligible to order a home swab test kit via the app. The app will log your Bluetooth signals and this will be used to track back your movements should you unknowingly come in close contact with a positive person.

The app is undergoing final trails and will be released before the UK begins to ease restrictions.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


That's very good news, but I hope we don't just rely on an app and we use extensive human tracers too, deployed at local level. There is a lot of room for error and cheating with an app and many old people don't have smartphones.


 

Joe Bloggs
26 April 2020 08:31:25


 


That's very good news, but I hope we don't just rely on an app and we use extensive human tracers too, deployed at local level. There is a lot of room for error and cheating with an app and many old people don't have smartphones.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I think an “army” of contract tracers is also within the plan. 


Fingers crossed. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Quantum
26 April 2020 08:32:24

Well imagine my shock, turns out this Guardian cummings story was exactly what I said. Normal procedure being spun by the Grunyard.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
26 April 2020 08:33:12


 I think an “army” of contract tracers is also within the plan. 


Fingers crossed. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


As so many public health experts keep saying, this is the cheapest way out of this and the one most tried with good results.

xioni2
26 April 2020 08:35:22


Well imagine my shock, turns out this Guardian cummings story was exactly what I said. Normal procedure being spun by the Grunyard.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


We don't know if Cummings took part in the discussions in SAGE, but that's less important. Just his presence there could bias the discussion and advice. He has absolutely no place being there.


speckledjim
26 April 2020 08:36:42


 


Surely though  as more testing is progressively being done then more positive cases are being found and are going to be found.Out of those 4-5k cases the question is how many end up in hospital,how many only develop mild symptoms,how many stay asymptomatic.Therefore the most reliable indicator is the hospital admissions numbers for Covid and that should be the indicator re future decisions. Thankfully it is going the right way,declining. You cannot just look at this from purely a health point of view and lockdowns are a crude and blunt instrument and extremely damaging in other ways. It will be interesting to see how Sweeden comes out the other side of this crisis as imo they have taken a very balanced approach.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


There's no real value in looking at the number pf positive cases as we are ramping up the testing. The important figure there is the positive rate and that was 21% yesterday. Previously it has been I believe 30-40%. Hospital admissions is thankfully down and more and more critical beds are coming available. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
The Beast from the East
26 April 2020 08:38:13


 


Not sure about Equador but Singapore’s outbreak has been a picnic compared to the UK. 


I just find it very strange that the virus hasn’t exploded in say for example, Cambodia. I was there in early Feb and there were barely any restrictions at all, and they will have had a huge number of Chinese visitors in the previous couple of months. They don’t have a feasible health system either. Perhaps it’s rampant over there but completely unreported. 

I do find it strange how many countries (despite not taking much firm action), seem to have been spared in comparison. This is what is leading me to the climatic link. 


Thailand should also be absolutely riddled but has also escaped relatively lightly compared to here. 

This is what is leading me, on an anecdotal basis, to a climatic link, however tenuous that may be. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Before Trump made his silly comment, the expert scientist he had before him was discussing a new study that showed UV light and humidity had a major impact on virus transmission. But not heat, and he was at pains to say its not about heat - only sunlight and humidity


The evidence from tropical areas backs this up. Very few cases in Southern India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Malaysia, Indonesia


Not sure about Ecuador but perhaps there is low humidity here?


For us, the weather for the next few weeks will be cool and wet, so not much UV available to help us. Combined with public flouting of lockdown and also businesses opening up unilaterally, like housebuilding and DIY shops, we could see another increase


The drop in cases we are seeing now could be down to compliance of lockdown in early April and the sunny weather

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
SJV
26 April 2020 08:39:56

From the BBC news ticker:
"In New York City, calls to the hotline for exposure to certain household chemicals more than doubled in the 18 hours after Mr Trump's remarks - 30 cases compared to 13 for the same time frame last year".

Hmm. Okay, so he said what he said (look at that), but interesting there were a number who 'dabbled' with household chemicals last year. Is Trump responsible for these as well?

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


 


Is Trump accountable...


For those that dabbled with household chemicals last year: No.


For the extra cases who've exposed themselves to household chemicals since his press conference remarks: Yes.

ozone_aurora
26 April 2020 08:40:29


No high absolute numbers, but still not a pleasant reading. US hospitals will soon release numbers on this phenomenon


Young, healthy people barely sick with covid-19 are dying from strokes


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Unfortunately, the link does not work.

Could you try posting it again, please. :)

xioni2
26 April 2020 08:40:42


 There's no real value in looking at the number pf positive cases as we are ramping up the testing. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


There is actually, as a high number makes containment more difficult.

The Beast from the East
26 April 2020 08:41:10


 


We don't know if Cummings took part in the discussions in SAGE, but that's less important. Just his presence there could bias the discussion and advice. He has absolutely no place being there.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Yes, but as I said yesterday Q would defend him if he recommended drinking bleach. Tribal politics trumps (excuse the pun) even global crisis

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
SJV
26 April 2020 08:41:13


 


We don't know if Cummings took part in the discussions in SAGE, but that's less important. Just his presence there could bias the discussion and advice. He has absolutely no place being there.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Agreed. The fact he was even there takes the independence of the SAGE panel away and for me that is enough 

Lionel Hutz
26 April 2020 08:42:24


 


There should be investigation what's causing these 4-5k new cases every day as numbers should be coming down now. I can only think its caused in supermarkets where there is any kind of congregation, indoors, people with and without muzzles, touching food, payment keypads. I wonder if this 2m is adequate also. Until a reason is found for these numbers and suitable action taken, we can't really move on unless the numbers we see now are acceptable by the govt, not!


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Has UK testing increased? Presumably, if you increase the number of tests, you will record more cases without the virus being any more widespread. Our number of cases here seems to be fairly constant too, but I suspect that that may be down to increased testing, now up to 10,000 a day. Our health experts are happy that the transmission rate is down to 0.5. The proof of this is that numbers in ICU have now fallen to around 2/3 of their highest levels. So the situation is improving here despite the headline numbers being the same. 

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



speckledjim
26 April 2020 08:43:56


 


Not sure about Equador but Singapore’s outbreak has been a picnic compared to the UK. 


I just find it very strange that the virus hasn’t exploded in say for example, Cambodia. I was there in early Feb and there were barely any restrictions at all, and they will have had a huge number of Chinese visitors in the previous couple of months. They don’t have a feasible health system either. Perhaps it’s rampant over there but completely unreported. 

I do find it strange how many countries (despite not taking much firm action), seem to have been spared in comparison. This is what is leading me to the climatic link. 


Thailand should also be absolutely riddled but has also escaped relatively lightly compared to here. 

This is what is leading me, on an anecdotal basis, to a climatic link, however tenuous that may be. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


I think that the virus is prevalent in those countries but perhaps they are not as badly affected. If it is true that obesity is one of the major factors in those that get v ill then I can understand why the likes of Cambodia and Thailand have relatively few deaths.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
26 April 2020 08:44:09


 


We don't know if Cummings took part in the discussions in SAGE, but that's less important. Just his presence there could bias the discussion and advice. He has absolutely no place being there.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Its routine for representatives from #10 to attend SAGE meetings. If you think this is a problem, that's fine but the grunyard article implied something exceptional was happening which is not the case. What happened also happened during past administrations.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Phil G
26 April 2020 08:44:20


 


Before Trump made his silly comment, the expert scientist he had before him was discussing a new study that showed UV light and humidity had a major impact on virus transmission. But not heat, and he was at pains to say its not about heat - only sunlight and humidity


The evidence from tropical areas backs this up. Very few cases in Southern India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Malaysia, Indonesia


Not sure about Ecuador but perhaps there is low humidity here?


For us, the weather for the next few weeks will be cool and wet, so not much UV available to help us. Combined with public flouting of lockdown and also businesses opening up unilaterally, like housebuilding and DIY shops, we could see another increase


The drop in cases we are seeing now could be down to compliance of lockdown in early April and the sunny weather


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I don't think between 4-5k new cases every day since 12th April is a drop in numbers. There is something causing these that needs to be addressed if we are to move on.


Shame as we have certainly had the light, but low humidity.

The Beast from the East
26 April 2020 08:45:36


 


As so many public health experts keep saying, this is the cheapest way out of this and the one most tried with good results.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


BBC news yesterday had an excellent report from South Africa where they did just this, and sent an army of health workers into every township to track cases


Of course that requires a vast infrastructure and investment in staff. Before this crisis began, our NHS had 100,000 vacancies and the Govt wanted to reduce immigration even more, because foreign workers are the cause of all our problems, according to Priti the Bitch


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
NickR
26 April 2020 08:45:49


 


 


Is Trump accountable...


For those that dabbled with household chemicals last year: No.


For the extra cases who've exposed themselves to household chemicals since his press conference remarks: Yes.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Yep. It's really not hard to grasp.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Quantum
26 April 2020 08:46:53


 


Agreed. The fact he was even there takes the independence of the SAGE panel away and for me that is enough 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


So what the article should have been is


'Should Number 10 representatives be allowed to attend SAGE meetings?'


As opposed to


'CUMMINGS MEMBER OF SAGE IN EARTH SHATTERING CONFLICT OF INTEREST'


 


This is a non story that has everything to do with questioning normal procedure and nothing to do with the current administration or Cummings. It is deeply irresponsible of the Guardian to blow up normal procedure during a crisis in order to land political points on the government.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
26 April 2020 08:47:33


 I don't think between 4-5k new cases every day since 12th April is a drop in numbers. 


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


The usual reminder though that we are looking in the past. New cases announced today would have been infected ~ 2 weeks ago.

doctormog
26 April 2020 08:49:23


 


Its routine for representatives from #10 to attend SAGE meetings. If you think this is a problem, that's fine but the grunyard article implied something exceptional was happening which is not the case. What happened also happened during past administrations.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It is routine for relevant Cabinet Office staff to be present, I’m not sure that could be extended to Cummings but the information about membership and attendees of these meetings seems to be historically difficult to obtain if not exactly secret. Cabinet Office staff are usually by nature not political advisors in the way that Cummings is.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
26 April 2020 08:49:27


 


I think that the virus is prevalent in those countries but perhaps they are not as badly affected. If it is true that obesity is one of the major factors in those that get v ill then I can understand why the likes of Cambodia and Thailand have relatively few deaths.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


And age.


Maunder did mention that Africa is very young and people are generally slim, so that may be a factor

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
NickR
26 April 2020 08:49:44


Just read this on the BBC regarding the current pandemic.


"Twenty thousand deaths represents a huge amount of illness, human pain and personal loss," says Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter. "But it's also important to remember that, although Covid-19 is a far more serious illness than seasonal flu, in each of the winters of 2014-5 and 2017-18 there were over 26,000 deaths associated with flu, which did not receive much attention."


 Not saying this is like Flu but if the same lockdown, coverage and daily death reporting was like for Covid-19 what would the reaction be? And remember those figures are for a virus with a yearly available vaccine. 


 


Originally Posted by: bledur 


26k deaths over an entire winter with no distancing let alone lockdown. Compared to 50k deaths in, what, 5 weeks, with distancing and lockdown, without which the NHS would have collapsed and 100s of 1000s would have died from a virus that also causes damage to lungs, kidneys, and the heart, as well as causing strokes in healthy people in their 30s.


I can't believe anyone is still seriously comparing this with flu.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
The Beast from the East
26 April 2020 08:51:08


 


That's very good news, but I hope we don't just rely on an app and we use extensive human tracers too, deployed at local level. There is a lot of room for error and cheating with an app and many old people don't have smartphones.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Or just leave them at home when you go to the pub!


 


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Phil G
26 April 2020 08:55:32


 


Yep. It's really not hard to grasp.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


The important bit was 13 decided to dabble in household agents last year. It's not unknown. Numbers go up and down. It could have been 30 this year whose to say if anything wasn't said. 13 to 30 isn't a great amount of change out of 19 million people. It could have been 50 the year before that.

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