BBC web leading with pop-up testing sites operated by the military, screen news with Boris back at work tomorrow. The Government may make its 100K target yet

---

We are in a pickle. This farce of a so called lockdown in the last two weeks has seen cases remain steady at 4-5k cases a day.

Yes, hospitals are not overwhelmed. But if there is that number of active cases any loosening of lockdown would likely see another spike.

The daily papers have mixed messages everyday. Where do they pick these lines up from - I’ve often heard that the government tell the press things to see what the lay of the land is? Could be wrong though.

Problem is, people are taking it as gospel and doing as they please.

---

I agree.  I can't see a nice way out of this.  There is no way you can bring in "track and trace" with anything like  the number of new cases we are seeing but as lockdown is fraying at the edges  we might even see an uptick during lock down let alone when it is officially loosened.  At the  same time lockdown is causing the Govt an absolute mint  and   aspects of it like dentistry and other medical  services (routine stuff that stops the serious stuff  happening down the track) need to be restarted.

I lay this situation firmly at the door of the selfish and the cretinous that have never  taken Social Distancing  and Stay at Home seriously.  I'm taking my perambulation early   today to avoid them  because I'm getting to the stage where have a mind to be extremely rude to the ones I meet ! 

 

---

Agree. I think we're left hoping for one of the following:

1) The virus is a lot more widespread than most of the evidence leads us to believe and it is beginning to fade away (as the Israeli Prof suggested)

2) A "hand of God" intervention - e.g. perhaps it doesn't transmit well in the summer months

The UK is out on a wing and a prayer.

---

Is there any evidence of the virus being catastrophic and and widespread in a hot and humid country? 

If you look at the situation in SE Asia I think there could be something in that, Brian.

The catastrophes have taken place in temperate, northern latitudes. It could be a small factor, amongst many many others of course. 

---

I don't think there is any evidence at the moment, Joe.

What there is evidence of is the incredible contact tracing and use of technology in SE Asia which seems to have kept deaths and infections to manageable levels. This is in today's Sunday Times:

The mobile phones of millions of Vietnamese users of a messaging app named Zalo started buzzing this month with an urgent alert from the ministry of health in Hanoi. Anyone who had visited the Lucky Star gym in the Me Linh district of Hanoi between 6.30am and 8am during a 10-day period in March was instructed to self-isolate immediately and to contact their local authorities.

The recipients of the message knew exactly what it meant: someone who had been using the gym had tested positive for the coronavirus. The government embarked on a nationwide effort to trace that person’s every contact during the period he or she would have been likely to infect others.

If it seems barely credible that a national health service in a country of 97 million people should be able to focus its resources on the gym-going habits of a single citizen, that is exactly what Vietnam has been doing on a near-daily basis for much of the past three months. Television bulletins feature warnings about the potentially infectious activities of individual coronavirus patients. Recent video clips posted on YouTube discussed the travel records of patient No 237 and, soon afterwards, No 243.

In Britain, lockdown measures were introduced in late March after 8,000 cases had been confirmed. It took only eight cases to spur Hanoi into action in late January. Vietnam had suffered through several previous epidemics that crossed its northern border from China. It had learnt to take no chances.

Britain’s coronavirus caseload has since swollen to more than 148,000 confirmed, with more than 20,000 deaths. Vietnam, whose population is 30 million larger than the UK’s, is reporting 270 confirmed cases, without a single death. While sceptics may feel that Vietnam’s status as a one-party communist state undermines the credibility of its figures, independent experts note that its people are among Asia’s most enthusiastic users of western social media.

“I don’t see widespread concerns that the numbers aren’t right,” said Robyn Klingler-Vidra, a senior lecturer in political economy at King’s College London. “I’ve been researching Vietnam for 10 years. I’ve asked colleagues and collaborators there about the virus, and even some who are usually critical of the state say it very much feels as though the cases are low.”

---

I thought there were suggestions that R0 dipped a little but remained above 1 in warmer conditions. According to what I read the optimum temperature range for transmission is about 10C to 15C. A combination of the fraying lockdown and cooler weather during the coming week could be a lethal combination for the UK. We shall have to wait and see.

---

Equador?  Singapore also just had a major outbreak in immigrants' housing.

Also not a comprehensive study, but it found no significant relationship between weather and the spread of SARS 2.

I agree, BG. There is a lot of scope for this to turn out a lot worse than it has so far. Sadly one can't hope that the virus will select only the idiots as victims. It's regrettable that the UK is better at blame than it is at the concept of preparedness. Scientists and medics have been warning about the possibility pandemics for decades. It was a topic in my undergraduate studies back in the 1960s! Only wilful irresponsibility  of a series of governments allowed surveillance to decline and for the population to be left in the dark about the potential risks. We had had plenty of evidence, not least the animal health sector. Global tourism and the running down of NHS capacity have played their part in this sad saga - but public ignorance of the risk has been key. It was not a political priority, nor is it the exclusive failure of the present Tory government. Anyone arguing for rash and premature lifting of restrictions must have lost the plot. We don't need to be told, we should all be tightening our own biosecurity now.

R

---

Not sure about Equador but Singapore’s outbreak has been a picnic compared to the UK. 

I just find it very strange that the virus hasn’t exploded in say for example, Cambodia. I was there in early Feb and there were barely any restrictions at all, and they will have had a huge number of Chinese visitors in the previous couple of months. They don’t have a feasible health system either. Perhaps it’s rampant over there but completely unreported. 

I do find it strange how many countries (despite not taking much firm action), seem to have been spared in comparison. This is what is leading me to the climatic link. 

Thailand should also be absolutely riddled but has also escaped relatively lightly compared to here. 

This is what is leading me, on an anecdotal basis, to a climatic link, however tenuous that may be. 

---

No high absolute numbers, but still not a pleasant reading. US hospitals will soon release numbers on this phenomenon

Young, healthy people barely sick with covid-19 are dying from strokes

The trouble is Joe ,with our climate  we can stay in Spring all year round …………………...hot isn't a word used very often in weather forecasts J

---

I certainly would not rule out any link Joe. I have wondered about this as well and there are a few studies looking at various aspects of this but not much consensus as yet. 

---

Brazil, Iran

---

Iran wasn’t hot and humid at the peak of their outbreak. Or am I being silly? 

---

Very interesting about Vietnam, Justin. Their contact tracing has clearly saved many lives. 

---

No. You are correct. It was cold and dry - my mistake 

---

That muppet? Wouldn't even give him time of day, considering he was already way out with that prediction when it was published last week (dies away to almost nothing after 70 days, whereas we're still seeing 4K+ cases a day coming up to 90 days later. Hmm...)

Also, Italy is to keep schools closed 'til September!

Italy to reopen manufacturing industry in just over a week

Italy will start reopening its manufacturing industry on 4 May as part of plans to ease its coronavirus lockdown and schools will reopen in September, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said in a newspaper interview on Sunday picked up by Reuters.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/26/coronavirus-live-news-trump-steps-back-as-deaths-worldwide-pass-200000

 

---

Just read this on the BBC regarding the current pandemic.

"Twenty thousand deaths represents a huge amount of illness, human pain and personal loss," says Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter. "But it's also important to remember that, although Covid-19 is a far more serious illness than seasonal flu, in each of the winters of 2014-5 and 2017-18 there were over 26,000 deaths associated with flu, which did not receive much attention."

 Not saying this is like Flu but if the same lockdown, coverage and daily death reporting was like for Covid-19 what would the reaction be? And remember those figures are for a virus with a yearly available vaccine. 

 

Anyone traced to a known carrier through the soon to be released NHS CV19 app will be eligible to order a home swab test kit via the app. The app will log your Bluetooth signals and this will be used to track back your movements should you unknowingly come in close contact with a positive person.

The app is undergoing final trails and will be released before the UK begins to ease restrictions.

From the BBC news ticker:
"In New York City, calls to the hotline for exposure to certain household chemicals more than doubled in the 18 hours after Mr Trump's remarks - 30 cases compared to 13 for the same time frame last year".

Hmm. Okay, so he said what he said (look at that), but interesting there were a number who 'dabbled' with household chemicals last year. Is Trump responsible for these as well?

Surely though  as more testing is progressively being done then more positive cases are being found and are going to be found.Out of those 4-5k cases the question is how many end up in hospital,how many only develop mild symptoms,how many stay asymptomatic.Therefore the most reliable indicator is the hospital admissions numbers for Covid and that should be the indicator re future decisions. Thankfully it is going the right way,declining. You cannot just look at this from purely a health point of view and lockdowns are a crude and blunt instrument and extremely damaging in other ways. It will be interesting to see how Sweeden comes out the other side of this crisis as imo they have taken a very balanced approach.

 No, but the media will conveniently ignore that bit.

For the school-workers amongst us, this is an interesting read. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/children-unlikely-to-transmit-coronavirus-says-study-cited-in-pms-push-to-reopen-schools?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

---

There should be investigation what's causing these 4-5k new cases every day as numbers should be coming down now. I can only think its caused in supermarkets where there is any kind of congregation, indoors, people with and without muzzles, touching food, payment keypads. I wonder if this 2m is adequate also. Until a reason is found for these numbers and suitable action taken, we can't really move on unless the numbers we see now are acceptable by the govt, not!