Hi David

Date of first confirmed cases:

Wuhan: 17 November 2019 (although the authorities didn't know what it was at that stage)

Other locations in China from mid-December 2019

Thailand:  13 January 2020

Canada:  15 January

Japan:  16 January 

USA: 21 January

Taiwan:  21 January

Macau:  22 January

Singapore: 23 January 

Hong Kong:  23 January

Malaysia:  25 January

Australia: 25 January

Germany:  27 January

UK:  31 January 

Italy:  31 January

Russia: 31 January 

Spain: 14 February

The BBC has a good article here about immunity / reinfection. It reiterates what I've been saying - you do get immunity from SARS-CoV2, and the close relative - SARS-CoV - gives at least a year's immunity. The scientific consensus is that dodgy testing is behind those reports of people being reinfected.

It also mentions animal experiements, whereby monkeys were shown to be immune to it when deliberately infected a second time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52446965

Looking at NYC and their testing, I'd imagine percentage of people who've had it in cities like London will be noticeable but not anywhere near herd immunity (if it exists), whereas more rural areas will have had a much lower overall level of infections. 

There's quite a lot of negativity around immunity post infection on here ATM, following the reports of possible re-infections of a small number of patients, which seems a little doom and gloom. That was a very small number, there's no evidence either way as to whether it was reinfection or re-lapse and whilst the authorities there (Singapore wasn't it?) are bullish it wasn't a testing issue that has to be a real possibility too, given the number of tests done and the pressure they were done under. Even if some were reinfections, you'd still want to look at whether there was some reason they were able to be reinfected and it would still quite likely mean that at least some immunity was present, making further outbreaks easier to contain and with hopefully lower overall mortality. (Speculation of course, but of the more half full variety!).

All the speculation really does (optimistic or pessimistic) IMO is reinforce the need to get antibody testing done 'now' so you can build up at least a rough picture to help inform future strategy. We also need to establish as soon as we can if immunity post infection exists and to what extent, I.e total or partial.

On a more generally speculative front is anyone else concerned that the measures we're taking will ultimately make the possibility of a deadlier second wave more likely? I have zero knowledge on this front BTW but just seems to me we're making what is an entirely untested* approach to pandemic containment and that runs the risk of forcing the virus to evolve in a way which doesn't lessen it's deadliness. We're presumably not going to eliminate this without everyone in the world locking themselves away for 4-6 weeks with no human contact, so it's going to be around for some time and by artificially changing the way in which the virus spreads and evolves we're running an unknown risk?

I also generally look at the whole magic bullet of a vaccine with a lot more scepticism than seems to be being displayed - there seems to be an assumption that within 18 months or so we'll be able to mass roll out a vaccine but given our lack of success with many viruses you'd have to question if that's going to happen. The concerning thing is the long term strategy seems to be variations of lockdown/restrictions on movement and freedom whilst we wait for a vaccine, which is fine if a vaccine is developed but a total bust if it's not. There has to be a real possibility that in 18 months we'll still be waiting and having spread out infections and kept them at a lower level there's no possibility of herd immunity to assist (again, even if it was found that it could). Would be nice to see a plan B mentioned, rather than what seems to me to be an all the eggs in one basket approach <shrug>

*Untested in the sense that limited lockdowns have been tried in the past but the kind of global wide societal lockdowns we're seeing haven't been tried before. This was mentioned in the UCL report (I think that's who did it) that the government based their initial decision to reverse course and lock things down on. 

 EDIT: Just seen Darren's reply above which covers off the reinfection point at least!

We have developed, indeed arguably we have actively supported, a culture of 'finger-pointing'. This crisis has just made that even more stark and irritating than usual.

But let us not hide behind this and ignore that:

1. It was obvious and inevitable that there would be another global pandemic; the only issue was the nature and timing. All the ingredients have been there and if anything we've raised the risk by our actions (greater contact with wild and other animals, globalisation, mass air travel)


2. We made conscious decisions to outsource production so that we (collectively, not just the UK) have lost control of the ability to manage this without huge reliance on third party countries and China in particular 


3. In the same way that China is culpable for losing several weeks before addressing the problem, we lost several weeks by vacillating between considerations of health and economy

It occurred to me this morning that the media should be turning all of its fire on the morons who are ignoring the social distancing/stay at home rules rather than labouring the point about government shortcomings.

One of the great facts about this disease that’s been mentioned from the start is how you can have the disease but be asymptomatic. 
Has this been thoroughly challenged - as a lot of assumptions have been made based on this?  After all, in many places you only get tested if you are sick/hospitalised.

The antibody tests are another way to uncover these people, but until now they haven’t been that reliable.  

It's probably not helping watching stuff from the USA. Lots of States are basically doing nothing. Even  Californis, people sun bathing on the beaches right next to each other. At the moment I'm not clear how much worse it is making it in terms of deaths. It doesn't appear that much higher per capita. You wouldn't want to wish this to be any worse than it is already on anybody but if it got out of control in the US people would realise that it does make a difference.

Indeed. Its absurd we are not deliberately infecting the volunteers. Thanks to the lockdown, they may not get infected naturally however many supermarkets they hang out in. 

Other countries must be infecting their volunteers and will get results immediately and then be first to manufacture the vaccine

Oxford will be left behind because of ethics

This attitude has been around for some decades now, originating around the Thatcher era when the culture of "look after number one" was promoted and popularised and has grown ever since. Remember the Harry Enfield then Catherine Tate sketches? This coincided with the increase in road rage. It's all part of the same problem. I'm old enough to remember when an unintentional driving error (and we all make them) led to a raised hand  to say sorry which was responded to with a polite reciprocation to say "no problem". Individualism has become translated as selfish and aggressive. 

Never heard of this chap but he gets my UK (despite having a German sounding name) "the voice of reason" award:

A clear understanding of immunity is needed, before lockdown measures can be removed, warns professor

Danny Altmann, Professor of Immunology at Imperial College London, has told the Commons Science and Technology Committee he would be "terribly worried" about lifting lockdown measures with no or limited knowledge of the population's immunity against coronavirus.

He said: "As an immunologist and knowing how desperately lethal this virus can be, I'd be very worried about any assumptions on those grounds - terribly worried."

"Without really good antibody testing and seroprevalence in the population, we're flying blind."

"We haven't got a clue who's had it, how many have had it, where they've had it, or where we stand for the future for second waves, so I can't emphasise sufficiently how desperately we need that data and how widely we need that data."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-tests-nhs-vaccine-lockdown-covid-19-update/

Can't disagree with any of that GTW. We were caught with our pants down somewhat but I think we will end up the same as a few other european countries which isn't great, but at least not a standout. As well as the finger pointing we bitch and moan, but rather than grow up a bit have only become 'adults in the playground' and in some cases sheep following sheep.

Agree, but this has been a process that began decades ago, when the concept of society and community was rubbished by both govt and media, and individualism and greed were actively encouraged

Harry Enfield's "loadsa money" character, Del Boy, Alan B'stard etc all a reflection of how things changed in the 80s

We have been gaslit by the press barons for decades to hate each other and the concept of solidarity

As you say, its across the class divide, its just the chavs are more open about it, the gammon mutter under their breath

All deaths going through the roof and deviating massively from the norm. Should be another nail in the coffin for those who think this was prevalent in December and January in the UK.

Click for full size.

The voice of over-caution you mean. Scientists would have us locked down for years. But life has to go on

As Darren posted, tests on monkeys show they are immune and previous coronaviruses show that you do get immunity for a period of time at least

 an example of this my neighbours all around used to push start my MK2 Zodiac for me most mornings it was always a pig when I flooded it now people would spit on my feet I wouldn’t dare to ask.

I guess I have to consider HSE liability and the modern world

Nobody knows where all this is leading. But things like the Nightingales and the time we have now undoubtedly bought will surely mean we will be better prepared than we would have been if there is a severe Autumn second wave. You'd like to think by then staff will have proper equipment, doctors will have learned optimum treatments, lockdown timings will be better understood and so on. None of what we do now is wasted.

Since the restrictions, In the car I have only been out once a week for shopping in what is a 2.5 mile drive. With the reduced traffic, how I DO NOT MISS cars up your backside where a usual trip in the past meant this.

Yep, looks pretty conclusive that Brian.

I do miss my front bench seat in my Zodiac Phil hint hint  

At the moment I think the quality and accuracy of data from any source and our ability to extrapolate that into something that accurately predicts the future is on a par with your snow rows

If they were daily going from 16,16,16,14,11,7,7. I think we would , with some uncertainty be thinking it was less likely to snow.

All I've done is multiply those German values by 10. I don't think they show a dramatic rise - yet.

Has there been any research at all into the possibility that other Corona viruses could also give temporary immunity from Covid 19 or is this a complete non-starter? 

That does seem to be the widely quoted populist view. The academics seem to agree that international borders were slow to close but the Chinese authorities were quick to inform the world of the structure of the genome and what they knew about the epidemiology and to lock it into Wuhan. I'm not sure with so many Chinese people already spread around the world for Christmas and the New Year that it wasn't rife sooner than people generally thought.

Yes I'm looking forward to an Audi A6 being up my jacksie when I can travel to the Peaks again 

Its a nightmare and highlights to EVERYONE why this has to be a very very slow return

You go and volunteer then as you think we should give young people a good old dose of what could potentially kill them! Or perhaps you could administer the injections to avoid others having to carry that guilt?

How are Sweden and Holland getting on? No one really mentions the Dutch but as far as I'm aware their lockdown is a lot less strict than ours and they have a similar population density to England.