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Roger Parsons
05 May 2020 12:38:32


Why has HMG built its own centralised contact tracing app instead of using the Apple/Google decentralised one? Do I want HMG and selected third parties to know where I’ve been, who I’ve seen and what I’ve been doing?


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I may well be speaking for everyone on this thread when I say everyone would be interested to know where you’ve been, who you’ve seen and what you’ve been doing, Justin. I think we should be told. R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
JHutch
05 May 2020 12:43:43


 


Country by country comparisons are impossible at the moment, for a variety of reasons. Just take Spain as an example - the death rate in Spain declined much faster and earlier in Spain than in either France or Italy - I can think of no valid reason for that, other than different methods for recording statistics, since the death rate is determined from the point of infection which in most cases is some weeks prior to fatality.


The proper way to look at what happened in different countries is via a detailed statistical analysis of excess deaths, which can only be done weeks later.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Nice one son, that was pretty much what i was saying in the first line of what i said. Never mind.

xioni2
05 May 2020 12:45:18


Another virologist who thinks Covid 19 might not be as dangerous as feared. - 


https://unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds-covid-fatality-rate-of-0-24-0-36/


Professor Streeck feels that lockdown measures were introduced too fast, meaning that we didn’t have enough time to assess whether the individual components (such as better hygiene and some social distancing) were sufficient to slow the spread.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


I am not sure I understand this argument. How could a country like the UK take the approach above and risk going deeper into the exponential curve, especially given the significant lags involved? It may work in Sweden, but they have a better health care system there, a healthier population, the highest number of single person households in the world and they had also banned mass events on 12 March. I don't think any responsible government here could take such a massive risk (the risk of completely overwhelming the NHS), especially given that mass events were still ongoing in mid-March.


The mortality rate (0.1%) mentioned by the other Swedish scientist is also completely wrong, or it could apply to Sweden only. Forget about mortality rate, in New York City the confirmed deaths so far is 0.16% of the population and the likely deaths is 0.22% of the population. These are not mortality rates, these are the percentages out of the whole population (not just out of the infected people!) and they are still rising!


With the data we have so far, deaths in the UK have peaked ~3 weeks after the lockdown and the app proxy of infections peaked 2 weeks after the lockdown, which is almost a perfect match and it shows the lockdown as having a big impact on our epidemic.

Joe Bloggs
05 May 2020 12:45:20


UK now officially has the highest death toll in Europe. It's amazing how this has happened. It seems only moments ago we were all dismayed at the horrific death tolls in Spain and Italy. Without breaking into a sweat we appear to have overtaken them. Granted we're all a long way from the home straight but there are signs the UK has the legs to keep running ahead. 


The five charts that explain the UK's horrifying death toll


The UK recorded 32,375 deaths up to 24 April - more than the official death tolls of Europe's hardest-hit countries


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/ons-data-indicates-uk-past-peak-deaths-care-home-deaths-still/


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It’s absolutely heart breaking. 


I saw a piece on the news yesterday from New Zealand, how they are dealing with the crisis under the leadership of Jacinda Ardern. 


I know there are various factors why NZ was less vulnerable than the UK to this disease - physical geography & population density being a couple of them.


That said, I can’t help but feel the effects of COVID-19 on this country, most specifically our horrendous death toll, are symptomatic of bigger issues in our politics and in our society. 


This specific outcome for the UK almost felt inevitable. This is subjective but I feel like we’ve been losing our way for a long while. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

picturesareme
05 May 2020 12:51:19



Also in the example given it would now have gone down as CV-19 whether a test was done or not.  
Death Certificates no longer need a doctor let alone two doctors to decide the likely cause


Originally Posted by: four 


I had heard rumours of that happening but i wasn't sure if they were still sending off samples for later confirmation of infection or not.. likewise if they knew the patient was infected and upon death its a coronavirus death.. no need for post mortem confirmation.

Gavin D
05 May 2020 13:01:05
Wales has reported 145 new cases and 26 new deaths
Gavin D
05 May 2020 13:02:32
Scotland has reported 171 new cases and 44 new deaths

Northern Sky
05 May 2020 13:03:04


 


I am not sure I understand this argument. How could a country like the UK take the approach above and risk going deeper into the exponential curve, especially given the significant lags involved? It may work in Sweden, but they have a better health care system there, a healthier population, the highest number of single person households in the world and they had also banned mass events on 12 March. I don't think any responsible government here could take such a massive risk (the risk of completely overwhelming the NHS), especially given that mass events were still ongoing in mid-March.


The mortality rate (0.1%) mentioned by the other Swedish scientist is also completely wrong, or it could apply to Sweden only. Forget about mortality rate, in New York City the confirmed deaths so far is 0.16% of the population and the likely deaths is 0.22% of the population. These are not mortality rates, these are the percentages out of the whole population (not just out of the infected people!) and they are still rising!


With the data we have so far, deaths in the UK have peaked ~3 weeks after the lockdown and the app proxy of infections peaked 2 weeks after the lockdown, which is almost a perfect match and it shows the lockdown as having a big impact on our epidemic.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I think it's far too early to make judgements on what was/is the best policy. I don't think we know enough about the virus yet and I'll keep an open mind on the issue. These threads quite often are focussed on the worst case scenarios and I think it's important to take note of other viewpoints as a bit of balance. Which are closer to the mark will only become apparent over time.

Gavin D
05 May 2020 13:05:04
NHS England has reported 366 new hospital deaths up from 204 yesterday



Last Tuesday. NHS England has reported 546 new hospital deaths
JHutch
05 May 2020 13:11:03

'Watch your tone'? For info, Allin-Khan still works shifts at Tooting St Georges hospital and has done so through this crisis.


 



Gandalf The White
05 May 2020 13:11:34


 


I think it's far too early to make judgements on what was/is the best policy. I don't think we know enough about the virus yet and I'll keep an open mind on the issue. These threads quite often are focussed on the worst case scenarios and I think it's important to take note of other viewpoints as a bit of balance. Which are closer to the mark will only become apparent over time.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


That is true.  But given the way the number of cases and deaths climbed so sharply I am, frankly, astounded that anyone would try to argue that we should have waited. Remember that it was about trying to avoid the NHS being swamped. The graph shows clearly what would have happened if we’d delayed introducing the measures.


Also, some of the ‘what if’ game playing in that article were questionable. But the bottom line was an implied acceptance of deaths reaching six digits, eg 0.1% mortality rate would result in 65k deaths and the evidence doesn’t suggest it can be as low as 0.1%, given that we’re approaching half that number already.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
05 May 2020 13:21:03


 I think it's far too early to make judgements on what was/is the best policy. I don't think we know enough about the virus yet and I'll keep an open mind on the issue. These threads quite often are focussed on the worst case scenarios and I think it's important to take note of other viewpoints as a bit of balance. Which are closer to the mark will only become apparent over time.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


How can you take seriously someone who insists that the mortality rate (infected people / deaths) is 0.1%, when 0.22% of the total NYC population has died so far? This is not being open minded.


 

Phil G
05 May 2020 13:23:46


 


Country by country comparisons are impossible at the moment, for a variety of reasons. Just take Spain as an example - the death rate in Spain declined much faster and earlier in Spain than in either France or Italy - I can think of no valid reason for that, other than different methods for recording statistics, since the death rate is determined from the point of infection which in most cases is some weeks prior to fatality.


The proper way to look at what happened in different countries is via a detailed statistical analysis of excess deaths, which can only be done weeks later.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The ratio of low deaths to new high cases, Russia must be recording their deaths 1-2 months after the event, and that's if we ever get to know!


If we ever get to know, Russia will end up having the highest death rate.

Maunder Minimum
05 May 2020 13:25:52

Is the lockdown doing more harm than good? - discussion here:


https://unherd.com/2020/05/is-the-lockdown-doing-more-harm-than-good/


 


New world order coming.
Gavin D
05 May 2020 13:29:15

Breakdown of the 366 new hospital deaths in England by date



  • 66 on May 4th

  • 127 on May 3rd

  • 54 on May 2nd

  • 29 on May 1st

  • 85 in April

  • 5 in March with one on March 19th

picturesareme
05 May 2020 13:32:46


 


How can you take seriously someone who insists that the mortality rate (infected people / deaths) is 0.1%, when 0.22% of the total NYC population has died so far? This is not being open minded.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


The state not the city.. how many new born have entered the NY state population since the virus? Also had lock down not happened how many would have moved to NY stat?

xioni2
05 May 2020 13:36:20


 The state not the city.. how many new born have entered the NY state population since the virus? Also had lock down not happened how many would have moved to NY stat?


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


It's the city, not the state. The city has 8.3 million people, and as of 4 May, it has 13,536 confirmed CV19 deaths and another 5,373 likely deaths.

xioni2
05 May 2020 13:38:59


 It's the city, not the state. The city has 8.3 million people, and as of 4 May, it has 13,536 confirmed CV19 deaths and another 5,373 likely deaths.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Edit: they say that they are more likely to underestimate the number of their deaths, so their actual number is probably even higher.


https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

picturesareme
05 May 2020 13:45:03


 


Edit: they say that they are more likely to underestimate the number of their deaths, so their actual number is probably even higher.


https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Ok fair enough..


Roughly 9500 babies are born each month in NYC. So going back to your dismissal of the 0.1% did you also factor in the the new births when coming to your conclusion?

KevBrads1
05 May 2020 13:45:33

Madness!  


Three family members charged in shooting death of security guard who told a customer to put on a face mask


https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/michigan-security-guard-mask-killing-trnd/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3TSA6C53HM-okusNXv_s4v0BbONVdWtyQRNsuXU_xEEEkCZIR51JgK8Kg


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Gandalf The White
05 May 2020 13:49:40


Is the lockdown doing more harm than good? - discussion here:


https://unherd.com/2020/05/is-the-lockdown-doing-more-harm-than-good/


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


An interesting article. His conclusion, of course, was that it isn’t doing more harm than good.


This part made me roll my eyes: “More than that, a growing economy seems to keep people alive. The correlation between GDP per capita and life expectancy isn’t exactly 1:1, but it’s pretty strong, by the standards of most social-science findings. “


Either poorly expressed or just wrong. It is not growth that is the basis of the correlation but wealth, and wealth measured over a sustained period to boot.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
05 May 2020 13:55:40
Worth a read:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/covid-19-just-really-bad-cold-happened-had-antibody-test-find/ 

Her boyfriend tested positive for corona earlier in the year. She had the symptoms of corona / flu / bad cold and was convinced it was it. However, one of the new antibody tests returns negative.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Phil G
05 May 2020 13:57:37
Virgin Atlantic cutting 3,000 jobs and suspending ops from Gatwick, same route as BA.
Makes you wonder if, as and when there is a return to holidays outside the UK, what types will be possible.
With many restrictions on ships, I could see cruising being popular but only for departures from the UK.
Once airlines have got to grips with 'how they handle passengers', villas may be popular where people there can more or less self isolate.
I do wonder about package holidays though where there is a certain amount of mixing just about everywhere.
xioni2
05 May 2020 14:00:41


 Ok fair enough..


Roughly 9500 babies are born each month in NYC. So going back to your dismissal of the 0.1% did you also factor in the the new births when coming to your conclusion?


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


It makes very little difference. The 8.3m is the latest population estimate and with that, 0.228% of the NYC population has died from CV19 so far.


If you allow 12 months x 9500 babies (and you ignore deaths from other causes), then 0.225% of the population has died from CV19 so far.

xioni2
05 May 2020 14:06:16

Just another awful story of a paramedic, which shows how much has gone wrong:


His family said that he had been worried since the start of the pandemic: many of the patients he and his colleagues were transporting lived in care homes where the virus was spreading, and his requests for any form of protective gear had been refused by his employers.


One day in March, he was sent with one colleague to pick up a patient from hospital. They found the patient unaccompanied in a wheelchair, and coughing. When they raised concerns, they were told by a nurse she had tested negative for Covid-19. They took her home, only to realise that she needed to be carried upstairs as she had no carer at the time; Gellaledin tried to avert his face while the patient coughed. They were not told that any physical assistance would be required, and were consequently unprepared; they were also not told that another ambulance crew had already declined the assignment on the grounds it was not safe. The patient later tested positive. On 9 April, the paramedic died of coronavirus. He was 53.

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