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Gooner
07 May 2020 17:16:39

My Uncle from Bracknell was rushed into hospital this evening with a virus , he has a very high temperature , certainly doesn't sound good 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Justin W
07 May 2020 17:18:03


My Uncle from Bracknell was rushed into hospital this evening with a virus , he has a very high temperature , certainly doesn't sound good 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Oh I’m very sorry to hear that and send you my best wishes.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
07 May 2020 17:24:11


My Uncle from Bracknell was rushed into hospital this evening with a virus , he has a very high temperature , certainly doesn't sound good 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Really sorry to hear that Marcus and I do hope things improve!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
John p
07 May 2020 17:30:27


Swiss study now out on IFR and antibodies.


FR for under 50 years old: 0.006%. again, like Denmark, practically no risk


Over 50: 3.57%


 


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.02.20088898v1


It's still by no means certain but I think there's increasing evidence that we 'could' have got this badly wrong - firstly we have failed to protect those who are by far at the most risk, and secondly we have put in place a form of lockdown that will have far reaching consequences across society, much worse than those caused by the virus itself.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


The virus being more dangerous for the elderly is hardly breaking news, we knew this in January. 


The lockdown was and is needed to prevent the young giving it to the elderly.


Camberley, Surrey
John p
07 May 2020 17:31:35


My Uncle from Bracknell was rushed into hospital this evening with a virus , he has a very high temperature , certainly doesn't sound good 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Fingers crossed for him mate. 


Camberley, Surrey
pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
07 May 2020 17:34:03


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.02.20088898v1


It's still by no means certain but I think there's increasing evidence that we 'could' have got this badly wrong - firstly we have failed to protect those who are by far at the most risk, and secondly we have put in place a form of lockdown that will have far reaching consequences across society, much worse than those caused by the virus itself.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


I keep wondering about this.  On balance I am a supporter of lockdown but I have about a billion questions on it and I'd like to know if it's as clear cut as sometimes made out.


For example, I've wondered if lockdown is helping more deadly mutations. As I understand it, usually what happens in a viral pandemic is that ill people stay at home and mildly sick people go about their lives and infect others, favouring the milder strain. (In 1918 this didn't happen, as very ill soldiers were shipped out to field hospitals, spreading the disease). Lockdown presumably also restricts this effect. Now this is probably a "noob" question that has been factored in by scientists, but it would be nice to know the answer.


What I'd really like to see is a scientifically literate journalist sit down with someone like Chris Whitty and spend a couple of hours calmly going through the modelling, the scenarios, the different approaches, the confidence levels and so on to get an understanding of how the decisions are made. If this has happened, I've missed it. I think I've mentioned before that I have tried to watch some of the press conferences but there are only so many household objects I can throw at the TV


--
Paul.
Gooner
07 May 2020 17:40:35


 


Oh I’m very sorry to hear that and send you my best wishes.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Thank you - Mum is in bits obviously as is my Auntie who is stuck at home.


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
07 May 2020 17:44:27

Appreciate the comments , Uncle Nev was very fit , ran 5 miles a day , didn't smoke or drink - daughter is in bits too as Neville is her God Father 


Lets hope for good news soon


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
07 May 2020 17:47:25

The R level at 0.5 - 0.9 - Lets take the worse case , is anyone surprised that its still as high as 0.9 ? I have no idea about these things but its perilously close to getting over 1 .


Brave to rush into anything at the moment , IMO  


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Darren S
07 May 2020 17:50:13


 


Looks to me like they are comparing the old figure (15,000+) which includes N Ireland with a new figure which doesn't include N Ireland. There has still been a significant drop in the number of people in hospital but its not really a fair comparison.


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


There's a note at the bottom of the chart saying that they're using the previous day's value from NI due to how or when the data is collated. Seems fair enough to me.


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
ozone_aurora
07 May 2020 17:56:43


My Uncle from Bracknell was rushed into hospital this evening with a virus , he has a very high temperature , certainly doesn't sound good 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I'm very sorry to hear that. Hope he'll soon gets better.

Gavin D
07 May 2020 18:16:11

UK data



  • Number of tests - 86,583

  • People tested - 65,092

  • Positive - 5,614

  • All settings deaths - 539


The confirmed rate for positive tests has fallen to 8.62%

Brian Gaze
07 May 2020 18:19:23


 


I keep wondering about this.  On balance I am a supporter of lockdown but I have about a billion questions on it and I'd like to know if it's as clear cut as sometimes made out.


For example, I've wondered if lockdown is helping more deadly mutations. As I understand it, usually what happens in a viral pandemic is that ill people stay at home and mildly sick people go about their lives and infect others, favouring the milder strain. (In 1918 this didn't happen, as very ill soldiers were shipped out to field hospitals, spreading the disease). Lockdown presumably also restricts this effect. Now this is probably a "noob" question that has been factored in by scientists, but it would be nice to know the answer.


What I'd really like to see is a scientifically literate journalist sit down with someone like Chris Whitty and spend a couple of hours calmly going through the modelling, the scenarios, the different approaches, the confidence levels and so on to get an understanding of how the decisions are made. If this has happened, I've missed it. I think I've mentioned before that I have tried to watch some of the press conferences but there are only so many household objects I can throw at the TV


Originally Posted by: pfw 


I thought the key driver for lockdown was preventing health services from being overwhelmed? Therefore, even if lockdown theoretically results in more deaths because it slows the advancement of weaker strains perhaps the models suggest the effect would be overridden by the increased stress on health systems?


New Scientist could possibly grab Whitty or Van-Tam and produce a more in-depth article. It would be interesting.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Whether Idle
07 May 2020 18:24:02


The R level at 0.5 - 0.9 - Lets take the worse case , is anyone surprised that its still as high as 0.9 ? I have no idea about these things but its perilously close to getting over 1 .


Brave to rush into anything at the moment , IMO  


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


It all comes back to the late slow and inadequate response in January to mid March which made everything very difficult and more acute than need be, and has led to this high sustained level of cases.  Still over 500 deaths per day for God's sake! Incompetent morons.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Quantum
07 May 2020 18:26:59

The Imperial model the govt has been basing its policy on looks to be seriously problematic:


https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/


Have a read of this.


Imperial should be ashamed they have not been honest about this.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Joe Bloggs
07 May 2020 18:29:48


The Imperial model the govt has been basing its policy on looks to be seriously problematic:


https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/


Have a read of this.


Imperial should be ashamed they have not been honest about this.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I presume that is a reputable source? 😃    



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

The Beast from the East
07 May 2020 18:33:43


My Uncle from Bracknell was rushed into hospital this evening with a virus , he has a very high temperature , certainly doesn't sound good 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Hope he gets better soon. Where could he have caught it from and how old is he?


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ulric
07 May 2020 18:34:18


 


I presume that is a reputable source? 😃    


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Yes, he seriously spends his time reading that sort of drivel.



To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Justin W
07 May 2020 18:35:57


 


I presume that is a reputable source? 😃    


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


“My identity. Sue Denim isn’t a real person (read it out). I’ve chosen to remain anonymous partly because of the intense fighting that surrounds lockdown, but there’s also a deeper reason. This situation has come about due to rampant credentialism and I’m tired of it.”


In other words, it’s a load of old tosh and ‘Sue’ doesn’t like ‘credentialism’ because ‘she’ has no credentials!


🤣🤣🤣


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Justin W
07 May 2020 18:38:32

We must remember that Q is currently in his manic phase and is therefore the world expert on any subject you care to mention.


 


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gooner
07 May 2020 18:45:09


 


Hope he gets better soon. Where could he have caught it from and how old is he?


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


God knows , no away from the house or Garden , I have raised the question about the front lawn as its open plan and a path runs in front of it , did he chat with the distance ?


He is 82 but a very good 82 , looks a lot younger , ran each day , not a smoker or a drinker , looks very fit .


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
07 May 2020 18:47:25


We must remember that Q is currently in his manic phase and is therefore the world expert on any subject you care to mention.


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


 


You can see some of the threads on GitHub. This is the edinburgh team disputing the differing result come from different random seeds.


https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/issues/116


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
07 May 2020 18:48:42


 


God knows , no away from the house or Garden , I have raised the question about the front lawn as its open plan and a path runs in front of it , did he chat with the distance ?


He is 82 but a very good 82 , looks a lot younger , ran each day , not a smoker or a drinker , looks very fit .


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


If he hasn't left the house, then someone else must have brought it in unknowingly on food items, newspapers, mail, their clothing? Who knows


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
07 May 2020 18:49:59


 


 


You can see some of the threads on GitHub. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Is this what ConservativeHome.com is now calling itself?


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
07 May 2020 18:51:10

Also Ulric back when you were laughing at the idea that this was anything other than the flu I was suggesting that this should be taken seriously and social distancing should be implemented. Back then you lot were also critisizing me for not posting enough balance (despite the fact I did post optimistic sources at the time). The fact this website was made by a lockdown skeptic does nothing to change my view that the lockdown should be extended. However, unlike you, and your fellow FBPE conspiracy theoriests I read material from both sides of the argument.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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