I eagerly await 100’s response. 

Almost exactly what we were discussing as the options at home this week.

I expect more significant action at the end of May

Interesting slides here showing what would happen if the R value in Wales from now on was a constant 0.8, 0.9, 1.0 or 1.1. Comparisons of the dramatic difference between R being 1 or 5 in the past have been interesting but this really shows the difference that small changes in R make and bring home how important it is to be vigilant all the time, everything you can do to bring the R value down by just 0.1 can still have a huge effect down the line (i think it was Merkel who made this point a month or two back).

Please see the slides from today's press conference pic.twitter.com/LxidnhDvJ3

— Welsh Government (@WelshGovernment) May 8, 2020

There's 10 types of people... Those who understand and those who don't! 

"The European Commission will start dispatching a stock of 10 million masks to healthcare workers across the 27-country bloc and in the United Kingdom. The Commission said a first batch of 1.5 million masks will be shipped to 17 member states and UK over the next few days.

The stock, purchased through a European Union fund set up to tackle the COVID-19 crisis, will be distributed in weekly installments over the next six weeks. "

Lucky they didn't tell us to get stuffed as we have left the EU. But they understand it's in their interests to co-operate with people at the moment. Our Government will probably say we don't need them again!

increasingly mixed messages to a bewildered public

 Why do you not understand the lockdown guidelines?

manipulation of scientific data.

 Really, more the problem they forgot what a poor record Imperial College especially Fergusson have on disease modelling. Right from the outset many epidimiologists were questioning his data.

I've had a feeling things seemed far too positive earlier in the week , I get the distinct feeling very little will change Sunday , much to the disappointment of millions.

I tried telling a company zoom meeting yesterday that Boris wont go mad but the expectation from many is a relaxation of note was on the way.

Cant see it .

Update on my Uncle , pneumonia in one lung but spoke to my Auntie on the phone for a very short while but that's good.

It was my Uncle who got me interested in the weather , he worked all around the world for the Met Office , finishing at Bracknell .

Fingers crossed

Thanks for all the kind messages  

I don't want to be alarmist but the death rate appears to be stabilising.

Agreed. I was thinking last night that infection rate is still high and I suspect many deaths are now in care homes. 

These people are probably not going into hospital and therefore while admissions look good, other setting deaths are not good at all.

Certainly appear that way

Sunday - 246

Monday - 204 

Tuesday - 366

Wednesday - 331

Thursday - 383

Friday - 332

Good to hear your uncle isn't as bad as thought, and wish him well. 

Canadian report: no holiday here, although you would not really know the difference. One thing I have observed is that weekday traffic is still a fraction of normal, whereas weekend traffic is creeping up steadily. It's still unusually cold here with a low below freezing tonight . I have a suspicion that this could be a back loaded summer with a sweltering July and August but we'll see.

Economic news unsurprisingly terrible https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-april-1.5561001

Ontario apparently not planning to do any regional re-opening. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-end-lockdown-physical-distancing-regional-1.5545600 Perhaps this is just too complicated to administer and risks issues in cottage country.

The state of emergency remains in place here. All city facilities are closed until the end of June. Schools not yet decided but at least until the end of this month. Locally I think people are adapting to the new setup and have settled in to a routine where lockdown and distancing are mainly observed but there is a little tacitly accepted flexibility around family members. I do get the impression that kids and younger people are struggling with the lack of contact with their peer group. Mine now want to go back to school!

You display the trended death rate on here every day

It has to be looked at as a 7 day average to counter the weekend effect but it seems to be declining but very slowly

You can bet the more malignantly nationalist/anti-regulation contingent of this pathetic government would be opposed. 

Last 5 Friday's for UK hospital deaths

• 414 - May 8th


• 427 - May 1st


• 776 - April 24th


• 825 - April 17th


• 953 - April 10th

Hospital deaths by region in England

• London - 93


• East of England - 53


• North East & Yorkshire - 50


• Midlands - 40


• North West - 41


• South East - 35


• South West - 20

332 new hospital deaths by date in England, including tragically a 6-week-old baby who died on May 3rd

• 58 on May 7th


• 124 on May 6th


• 41 on May 5th


• 21 between May 1 and May 4


• 72 in April


• 16 in March with one on March 11th

Not much between the latest two Friday's. Could be perhaps because the new cases rate on the whole has been fairly consistent, and still too high!