Absolutely correct, west, but not really the point. Many people are ignoring a "background level" of annual mortality for want of understanding and compliance. What prospect is there they will understand and comply with the present advice is my question - and time will give us the answer. Not much of a wait needed for an answer to become apparent, perhaps weeks.

R.

It really isn't. In countries with high obedience, even with necessary key workers an R rate under 0.7 was easily possible. Had that happened the number of infections would be down to February levels by now.

Instead idiots flocked to Skegness, rushed to pubs and clapped like seals every Thursday in celebration of their own stupidity.

If it had been me, I'd have started with a lockdown and then had key targets that also looked at mobility. If mobility increased in the first two weeks I'd have issued a warning. If it had increased again in the 3rd week then I'd have made the lockdown more severe. This would have continued until people get the message.

Even the Mail has rumbled this shower now

 

Raab ADDS to the lockdown confusion by saying don't to go back to work until WEDNESDAY https://t.co/gHLj5MNXtQ pic.twitter.com/j4aSEXOvfw

— Daily Mail U.K. (@DailyMailUK) May 11, 2020

Not a chance , it was never a lockdown . I have said before , we should have shut for the 8 working days over Easter .

Everyone is down on the Government for relaxing restrictions, yet Denmark is going hell for leather now - here is the latest guidance from the company I have a contract with:

"Based on the government's announcement of a phase two of the gradual reopening of our society, we have decided to increase the number of employees in our offices from 25% to 50% employees. Starting Tuesday.

This means that you talk with your team tomorrow and plan how to allocate the days with the new percentage in mind. It is important to state, that the decision does not change the behavioral guidelines previously announced. Meaning:

• The office buildings are still only accessible through the main entrances


• We keep registering to the guard in the reception when we arrive in the morning


• We use hand sanitizers and wash hands regularly


• We keep a social distance to our colleagues


• The elevators are still closed


• We follow all instructions and signage in the offices


• If we feel the slightest fever or sickness, we stay home

At the same time as we further open our offices, we are pleased to be able to reopen our 19 stores in the city centers tomorrow and welcome back the employees in customer service and tele sales, who has been home on the Relief packages from the government."

Schools are open, the 2 metre rule has been relaxed to 1 meter, bars and restaurants are reopening.

The one thing Denmark has done differently from the outset was to close borders and they are still closed, with no information yet on when people will be allowed to travel. That is causing problems for the Danish tourist industry - thousands of Germans pre-book summer holiday accommodation in Jutland and there is no indication yet as to whether they will be able to visit their holiday homes.

I think you've lost your mind Q.

What happens when you play by the rules and selfish brats think they can go and have a house party.

Sick and tired of this, I've been doing this since January. Which is fine, but I should not be expected to pay for other people's hedonistic urges. I mean ffs I have to put my life on hold because Neil fergusson is too horny not to bang someone's wife? Give me a break.

PM: If you work in manufacturing or construction, we encourage you to go to work on Monday

Raab: Only essential workers should go to work on Wednesday.

What an absolute cock up! There were we thinking it couldn't get any worse!!

Despite the incoherent messaging by HMG, I think we'll probably avoid a significant second surge as most people will act responsibly and we won't go back to what we were doing in early March. Our excess mortality will probably take longer to decline though compared to other countries and we'll probably end up with the highest total.

Anyone got updates on Sweden? Their social distancing never went to lock-down. Wonder what the data looks like.

Sweeden is a disaster, about 10x worse than the UK by my reckoning.

The only reason the figures look okay is because of their tiny population and population density. Try the sweedish method in a densely populated country and its nightmare fuel.

You've been doing it since January to what end? Countries like Sweden, Denmark and Holland have had less strict lockdowns and less deaths. Perhaps you have anxiety issues around catching the virus which I completely understand but as a healthy young person the risk to yourself is incredibly small. As long as you adopt common sense and follow social distancing you will also not pass it on to others. 

Well, I have close contacts in Denmark and Sweden and it is clear that they (the Swedish) have been very successful in massaging their statistics. They do it this way - if by their reckoning, a victim of COVID-19 would have died from other conditions within a year in any case (old age or terminal illness), they do not count in the overall statistics. I have been sent a Danish newspaper article which confirms that.

I've given up caring about my own personal wellbeing at this point. In fact I'd say one of my singular motivations is proving it is possible to be socially responsible for months on end.

Regarding those countries you mentioned,

The UK is 12x as dense as sweeden and 2x as dense as Denmark. And when you account for the fact our population is 3.5x higher than the Netherlands the numbers don't look that much better.

More to the point is England - we have crammed so many people in, it is absurd. The UK figures are skewed by the sparsely populated Scottish Highlands and Welsh mountains.

Even the massaged statistics show Sweeden to be an unmitigated disaster. In fact I honestly think its the worst country in the entire world (although will wait and see vis a vis Russia, Brazil and India). Huge country with its population distributed fairly evenly. Should be very easy to keep the death rate down. 

FYI the UK's death statistics are one of the least massaged in Europe. I can confidently say Germany has done better than the UK but its the only country I can say that in Europe. Pretty convinced Italy, Spain, France, and definitely Sweden have performed much worse than we have.

Indeed, compare the UK SE to similarly populated areas: New York, Moscow, Lombardy. And what do you notice? Every other region had their health service overwhelmed. The UK didn't even touch 80% despite its healthcare being D tier.

That's not true for Denmark, they banned mass gatherings on 11 March, closed schools, shops, restaurants etc. on 13/3 and closed their borders on 14/3.

I mean look at the pink and purple. And compare to where COVID is bad.

Seems very clear from this that alot of countries have an easy ride. I mean Sweden is an absolute joke, mostly grey, green and yellow.

There are many European countries that have done better than us, tens of countries. Have a look at what most CEE countries did in mid-March and the number of infections and deaths they have so far.

You can be socially responsible in more ways than one. Arguably it is socially responsible to restart the economy before millions of lives are ruined. 

It may well be that we don't get a vaccine and Covid 19 will be something we have to live and die with. There are a number of scientists that think many countries will end up with similar death tolls no matter what strategies they employ. Who knows? 

I don't disagree with the premise. My problem is with people unnecessarily indulging in their own personal desires at the expense of everyone else. And if we are really going with a 'crush the curve' strategy, then lockdown hard and we can also keep it time limited.

Keeping the economy ticking over is important though, but I think the plan should have been alot clearer about how to go about this. Not to spring some vauge message on everyone.

Will be interesting to see how they fare now - they are virtually opening up completely, apart from the borders. Of course, if they maintain strict border controls and continue track and trace internally, they stand a chance of getting away with it. If they open their borders however, they will be back to square one before long.

Which countries had to deal with the unique challenges of being one of the most integrated and densely populated countries in Europe? Germany has done really really well because it had similar challenges to the UK and overcame them in a way we did not.