Wow! Surprised by that. I thought he would be kicking and screaming still.

On topic, while we are not there yet my feeling is this morning things are clearer after most questions answered. It feels just the same after the stay at home rules, new instructions to digest, questions asked but a general understanding is occurring as they absorb. 

I think that the word adapt has been very important throughout all this. It's what humans have had to do through history to survive.

Early on, my own private mensuration suggested that the death rate was between one and two percent. I'm not at all surprised by the 1.56% figure.

Chimes with what Fauci is saying in America. New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and a few other states may have got up to 20% infection, but all others are less than 5%. So that's still a huge reservoir of potential hosts

He used a baseball analogy - "We are only in the second play of a nine innings ball game"

Johnson and Trump have taken huge gambles by lifting lockdown so early. Its possible the summer heat and UV will  naturally suppress the virus until the Autumn, but they are literally playing with peoples' lives

Johnson has spent his life gambling and getting away with it - both personally and professionally. From his adultery, to his opportunistic backing of Vote Leave. 

His premiership will be determined by what happens in the next few months. If infection rates drop, then his gamble would have paid off and he will be lauded by the usual suspects as the second coming of Churchill. 

But if cases rise and we have to go back into lockdown, then even his most slavish cheerleaders and sycophants in the media will struggle to protect him

No, your calculation is fine - assuming the 4% and 10% are accurate.

The CFR was said, from early on in this pandemic, to be around 1-2% so this isn’t that surprising and explains the need for the controls.

No doubt it’s completely different on the North Yorks Moors, where it’s a trivial illness that doesn’t merit the efforts and restrictions.

It's utterly horrendous if correct. I don't know how Vallance can reconcile the figures he discussed yesterday with a death rate of ~0.2% which the UK government had been suggested. If the UK infection rate figures are correct it would appear University of Hong Kong is pretty much spot on.

University of Hong Kong researchers put Covid-19 mortality rate at 1.4 per cent

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074015/university-hong-kong-researchers-put-covid-19  

Unless 1) a vaccine or therapeutic treatment is quickly developed 2) the UK infection rate stats are garbage 3) there is something we don't yet understand about transmission deaths in the UK could exceed 1 million. Utterly horrendous prospect.

That's part of the story. Deathrates are near zero for the under 45s, a couple of percent for the 45-65 crowd, then much higher above that. The BBC shows the data in a slightly different way:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692

It may well be in the absense of a vaccine that younger workers (40, 45, 50) end up going back, with the over 65s essentially being shielded in the same way the vulnerable are now. Who knows, though!

As a member of the 45 to 65 crowd that does not sound reassuring. Not at all! I doubt most of us in that age group have lived in the knowledge that we have a 2% chance of croaking imminently.  

Have you looked at the tense in which my sentence is written, Beast? I wrote:

"The question now is whether electors would rather have had Corbyn's Labour rump handling the present crisis? i.e. Pre-Starmer compared with the Tories. Please get it right. That is my question now. We don't yet know what the "Starmocracy" of Labour will turn out to be, short term or longer." That may well be my question later. Small. Far away. Small. Far away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMiKyfd6hA0

You have no reason whatsoever for making any assumption about my politics as I don't do politics, but I vote for whoever seems a decent, sound, fair-minded local candidate at every election - which I have to tell you has included a range of parties. You should think of standing.

R.

Other countries that have tried to measure this general infection rate have come up with figures between 0.5% and 1% so yours would be classed as unusually high but still in the right ball park

You are not using the "official" number of deaths due to CO-19 which is around 32000 IIRC and that would bring your rate to just about 1% and within the range of other country's measurements

Of course for the over 75's the risk is very much higher than that

Lies, damned lies and statistics!

The figures even in that band will be heavily skewed to the 65s, and those with underlying conditions.

If you are closer to 45 than 65 (as you are), and if you are healthy then you'll be at much less than a 2% risk of dying.

True but if I peg it my main concern won't be whether or not I am official. 

The precise number of deaths so far in the UK is not known and the same is true in other countries. However, I think my 50,000 was a reasonable number to use in the calculation and would have been valid a few weeks ago even if that is when Vallance's infection rate figures are valid. It would probably (finger in air) be better to give a predicted mortality range based on uncertainties. Based on this data perhaps we'd go for 1.2% to 2%. Utterly horrific regardless of how the cake is cut. The 50,000 deaths in the UK so far aren't even the entrée. They are the amuse-bouch.

Except you don’t unless you have an underlying condition that puts you at risk? Sorry if you do......

Our main concern would be that you'd have steps in place to keep TWO forums running.

Always instructive to see what other countries are doing:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-france-eases-lockdown-as-macron-comes-under-fire-qb20r0dbt

"Primary schools will start to reopen in France today, with about half of teachers and a fifth of pupils present amid fears over coronavirus infections and widespread resistance from families and teaching staff to the resumption of lessons.

Jean-Michel Blanquer, the education minister, sought to overcome that by telling parents that their children would be safer at school than at home, a claim that was met with widespread incredulity.

Mr Blanquer was speaking as the lockdown imposed on March 17 was eased more generally yesterday, with small shops and businesses allowed to open and people authorised to travel up to 60 miles from their homes.

...

In practice, however, the relaunch is faltering. Although 86 per cent of France’s primary schools will reopen this week, Mr Blanquer admitted that only about 1.5 million of their 6.7 million pupils would be present.

This is partly because of new government safety guidelines, outlined in a 63-page booklet, that impose a maximum class size of 15 and a distance of at least one metre between children, making it impossible for schools to take back all their pupils at the same time.

..."

Yesterday, the WHO  blasted the idea of "herd immunity" for the coronavirus.

The world is nowhere close to becoming immune to the coronavirus, and leaders at the World Health Organization Monday expressed outrage at the idea that some people might have to die in pursuit of a far-fetched virus-fighting strategy called herd immunity.

"A very low proportion of the people that have been tested have evidence of antibodies," Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's technical lead for COVID-19, said. "The range is between 1 and 10%."

https://www.businessinsider.com/herd-immunity-few-people-have-had-the-coronavirus-who-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

Yes, I apologise, I misread your post. My close distance eyesight is starting to fail me, I have been told I need varifocal glasses or something - like a lot of over 40s! I am denial though as I still think I am "young", but clearly nature has other ideas!

You need to stop thinking so negetivley. A 2% chance of croaking from covid-19 means a 98% chance you won`t.

You could always start smoking as smokers are 5 times less likely to get infected than smokers

Good to see the number of excess deaths falling fast, but still an awful figure

Restaurants have opened again in 3 US states, but people are not going

That's an interesting idea and one that seems to have quite a bit of traction.

I have no idea how other schools are dealing with the curriculum but the one my daughter attends appears to be providing and following up all the core subjects. In other words apart from the reduction of personal attention, tuition is much the same if not stricter than before the closure. Pupils are encouraged to email teachers with questions and ideas.

As I see it and it's only my personal opinion, the 'lost education' is more to do with the removal of social interactions and sports. If anything teachers are working as hard with the pupils who are able to come in plus the workload of the online classes. I am not sure a two week summer holiday would therefore be popular with staff and pupils. The social side i.e interacting with friends continues online of course in the evenings.  The physical fitness bit does concern me though but the good weather has helped.

Not surprised !

As I'm knocking 59, I shan't be  pubbing or going to restaurant  until the risk of death of getting this bloody thing is less than circa 2% (and yes I know that means I'm circa 98% not going to die, but why would I take  even the 2% risk ?)