It was good to talk to a friend in the flesh yesterday. Now to think about meeting our daughter again

At national level, both Laura Kuenssberg https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52670086 and Charlie Brooker last night taking a [pop at the Government surely means that the licence fee is more under threat than ever. Or does it mean that the BBC reckons that Keir Starmer will be able to oppose that measure successfully?

Headlines for Beast

To-go drinks in US https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52656756

and pubs (albeit limited) open in NSW

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52671694 (live feed at 0610)

Dramatic turn of events according to the Tele which is suggesting the virus could be wiped out in London within weeks. Great news if true. 

Edit: Obvious q. If it can be "wiped out" in London why can't it be wiped out in the rest of the UK and other European countries too? Perhaps we'll be getting back to normal much sooner than expected.

London has just 24 new coronavirus cases a day

Capital's lockdown questioned as Public Health England models suggest virus will be wiped out in June

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/14/london-has-just-24-new-coronavirus-cases-day/

Nearly created a full scale riot in our street , at 8pm ready for the clapping approximately 10 people came out of one house ( Polish ) , 4 walked off down the street , 3 got in a car and 3 stood smoking. Not remotely interested in clapping .

I reminded them of the pandemic and got told " its over " , red rag to bull with me .

If this is indicative of the UK then good luck 

Hope it is right but I'm struggling with this if I'm honest to be honest.  There is a massive non sequitur here.  IF the virus is as contagious as the experts re saying, given we are seeing people crammed into Public Transport and a large slice of people  not bothering to Social Distance properly now,  then you would expect to see a spike.

Either the touted  R value is  bollox, we have   hugely more people with antibodies than the studies show  or the projection is  bollox.  Something has to give.

Think that's spot on. TBH I have often wondered if something is amiss. My understanding is viruses with a mortality rate this high usually have a lower R rate. 

That IMO is only  a historical view; there's no reason in principle that a virus with both high mortality and high R should not exist - of course this would wipe out its host species so it is to be hoped (and indeed looks as if) covid 19 doesn't exhibit such extreme behaviour. 

Indeed, smallpox is a virus which was around in Eurasia for a long time so there was some herd immunity there - but when it was introduced by Europeans to other areas it proved to be an infection with high mortality and high R. It wiped out 90% of some native American and even 100% of some African populations. (Which, incidentally, is why colonisation of those areas was such a pushover)

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_smallpox 

Well, let's be positive. The good news this morning is that the UK Government is going to take public health very seriously in future.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-to-launch-war-on-fat-after-coronavirus-scare-flgswhmvx

"Boris Johnson is preparing a “much more interventionist” drive to tackle obesity as part of the fight against coronavirus after his spell in hospital with the disease.

The prime minister told senior ministers and advisers, “I’ve changed my mind on this” and that he was drawing up a new strategy.

Research has found that being obese doubles the risk of needing hospital treatment for coronavirus. About one in three British adults is clinically obese, classified as those with a body mass index (BMI) above 30. It is one of the highest rates in the western world.

..."

• if you are looking for the reason behind high mortality rates in the UK and USA, look no further - COVID-19 is a virus missile which seeks out the elderly, those with existing health problems and the obese.

Unfortunately, there is not a lot we can do about getting old or having people with horrible life threatening conditions like cancer or MS, but we can do something about fat people who should otherwise be healthy. One of the key signatures of younger people requiring hospitalisation with COVID-19 has been Type 2 diabetes - a fat person's illness.

Get lean, get fit and beat the virus should be the slogan!

Its factually incorrect though. Yesterday there was 88 and that I think is the lowest for a while, but still not 24.

I wonder what the picture will be in 14 days. There has been a lot more mixing of people these last fives days.

As I've said before, China does not have a monopoly on cover-ups and intimidation

Doctors 'told not to discuss PPE shortages'

One doctor who had posted concerns about PPE shortages online spoke to BBC Newsnight anonymously, for fear of reprisal from his hospital.

"They hauled me up in front of a panel of senior managers - it was very, very intimidating", he said.

"They kept on feeding me what felt like government type of lines, saying 'this hospital has never had PPE shortages' - which I know to be factually untrue. And that essentially I should stop causing a fuss.

Another doctor told the programme they were called into a meeting with senior NHS managers after speaking to the press about a lack of PPE.

They said they were told by their manager that if they continued to speak out they would get a "reputation" and "find it hard to get a job at that trust or others in the region".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52671814

In countries that relaxed their lockdown earlier than the UK e.g Denmark and Austria, there has been no uptick in cases so I’m hopeful that we will see similar here. I think social distancing and no mass events are key to keeping the numbers ticking over.

By your distorted world view, you regard Chris Patten as a "racist" - he was on the PM programme the other night, lambasting China for not being open, for dodgy statistics and distortion.

You once absurdly called me "racist" for suggesting that China's statistics were very suspect and not credible.

I was also dished by Doc for saying at the time (in February) that "the WHO had been behind the curve from the start" - Chris Patten also confirmed this, stating that the WHO is dominated by China to the extent that it won't even mention Taiwan which has been the most effective country in dealing with the virus from the outset.

Should we wait until our new daily case rate is the same as Denmark and Austria’s or should we ease the lockdown far sooner than when they reached those levels?

Personally, I think we are taking a real risk in slackening things off at the levels they currently have. I would have been happier if we had stuck with "Stay at home"  for a few weeks more. Although it was starting to "fray at the edges"  the current "woolly" message seems to have initiated a total free-for-all.   However, as always, time will tell.

Are you talking about per capita, or in absolute terms?

Mass demonstrations against the so called lockdown are planned in London tomorrow.

When Denmark eased their restrictions cases were growing at a rate of 2.9%, here it was 1.5%.

And where did you read that?

This is a good point and one which I made earlier in the week. These countries as you say are easing their lockdown, but I think they’ve eased it with the infection rates much lower.

As Jim said, I think the mass gatherings, restaurants and shops closing has had a big impact in reducing our infections overall - but still feels high.

I do worry, although the government messaging is avoid social gatherings, the mindset this week would have been fundamentally changed. People going to work etc, will think on meeting my mates at their place won’t be too bad - this will be the case when football returns as well.

If they do happen, we can kiss goodbye to infections disappearing in London. The irony here is that they risk the lockdown coming back.

It was the same in Germany last weekend, let’s hope that it doesn’t amount to much

Does demonstrate however that a lockdown can only be maintained for so long before it will collapse in any case. Those saying we should not ease the lockdown are peeing in the wind, since younger people are chafing at the bit.

Here is Patten on China:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8303719/LORD-PATTEN-Chinas-nasty-lying-bullying-Communist-regime-face-judgment-coronavirus.html

"...

But what should co-operation in the future mean? We cannot simply go back to our dealings with Chinese Communists and do business as we did before.

First, there is always the inherent danger presented by Communist hostility to the truth.

Covid-19 is not the first example of this risk. In 2002-04, SARS started in much the same way and its causes and spread were initially covered up. Fortunately, the results were not as bad as they have been this time.

Second, Theresa May was correct to say last week that we must work together to fight the pandemic and to prevent anything like it in the future. But how can we do that with China, which has a regime that is at present completely untrustworthy?

...

Naturally, in a better world, the World Heath Organisation (WHO) should be the vehicle for such an inquiry. Yet there are real worries – not just on the part of President Trump – about the extent to which this body has been suborned by Beijing. 

If you doubt that, just look at the way the WHO has connived with the Communist regime to freeze Taiwan – with a population of almost 24 million – out of the organisation.

Back at the end of December, Taiwan expressed worries to the WHO about the potential for transmission of the virus between humans. The WHO ignored this for three weeks, endorsing instead Chinese denials that this was happening. Despite Taiwan’s proximity to China, there have been only 380 cases there and five deaths.

We surely cannot allow China to go on preventing a free society which tells the truth from joining the WHO.

..."

"

It wouldn't be worthwhile opening our pub with social distancing and card payments only. The old codgers wouldn't come

As for takeaways, yes perhaps to get the taste of draught again, but standing in the street and drinking it is not a good look!

Better off just still getting tins from Tesco and drinking at home