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David M Porter
15 May 2020 09:10:08


Epidemic ends in Slovenia. Things starting to move quickly now. It's a bit like the start of the Grand National. All countries will be chaotically trying to get a slight edge on their competitors as economies are fired up. Interesting times ahead. In the UK I expect the quiet men to start turning up the volume. 


Slovenia has become the first European country to declare an official end to its coronavirus epidemic. The Balkan EU member state has a population of two million and has seen only a handful of daily cases in the past fortnight. In total it reported 1,464 cases and 103 deaths. There'll be no more quarantine if you're travelling to Slovenia from another EU country. [dource: BBC]


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Could it be that in some countries, the virus is slowly but surely starting to burn itself out? Let's hop so.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Quantum
15 May 2020 09:12:22


This will get Maunder's juices flowing


 




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Sigh, I'll do my best to try and explain why this is a stupid idea without just mindlessly ranting.


Let's say there is a spectrum going from -10 to +10 from people who believe in climate change at +10 to those that deny it at -10. Greta is great at getting all the 8s,9s and 10s to turnout (although it seems like the 'greta effect' had worn off before COVID happened). Obviously she can't get the -8s, -9s and -10s on board, but I question whether she has a positive effect on the -1s, 0s and +1s too.


Now let's come back to COVID. Some climate change deniers will still accept the science of COVID, what sense does it make to deliberately push them further into the conspiracy camp by inviting on an activist type figure? And if Greta's ability to polarize is anything like the same as it is on climate then she will struggle to get the -1s, 0s and 1s on board too which is exactly what you need to do.


Now compare a political activist with a scientist. Generally the later have much higher approval ratings in the public eye and better credibility. By keeping this as apolitical as possible you get get a broader appeal of the message. Greta has no special insight that particularly merits her presence on any of these panels and the only likely outcome of her being there is to annoy a bunch of people and make it more likely they will ignore the science on COVID.


The media is supposed to care about how messaging appeals, now is not the time to make screw ups like this. How many people who were kinda on the fence to accepting that self isolating is a good idea will now suddenly view it all as some kind of 'liberal conspiracy'? Probably not many, but perhaps enough for it to be a problem.


 


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Bugglesgate
15 May 2020 09:13:31


 


Well, it's impossible to wipe it out when people are coming into London from outside.  You only need one person and the R value of SARS-Cov2 means you sow the seeds of the next outbreak, in the same way that this pandemic started.


Nabarro from the WHO was interviewed this morning and made the point strongly that we will have to deal with multiple outbreaks going forward and it's how well we manage this that determines whether we get another upsurge.


The other salient point is that the national R value doesn't tell you what's happening locally, which is what matters now.  It could be 0.2 in, say, a little village (say, in the North Yorks Moors) but 1.5 in a commuter town.  That's going to be much more challenging because it will need local measures and local messaging: how's that going to be achieved?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


Let's be honest, Peter, it won't be.   I doubt testing capacity is anywhere near large enough   to provide that kind of "granularity"  and the  App looks  less than "fab" IMHO.


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Sevendust
15 May 2020 09:17:53

I suspect through fatigue and other reasons, many governments are switching away from CV19 concerns so there will be a concerted attempt to encourage "normality".


I'm all for it as those who are concerned about catching it will continue to exercise due diligence.


Others can play Russian roulette which is probably good for the gene pool 

Maunder Minimum
15 May 2020 09:19:50


Sigh, I'll do my best to try and explain why this is a stupid idea without just mindlessly ranting.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It is CNN - the tosspots have zero self awareness about how ridiculous they look. Greta has done a great job raising the public profile of the climate issue, whatever you may think about it (or her). But she has less than zero credibility on the COVID-19 pandemic - this is knee jerk leftism of the most risible kind - they might as well have appointed ChiChi the Panda to their "expert coronavirus panel" - at least she is Chinese.

New world order coming.
llamedos
15 May 2020 09:25:11

This is quite a cool idea/look 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-52663568/coronavirus-amsterdam-trials-covid-safe-restaurant

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
SJV
15 May 2020 09:25:27


 


It is CNN - the tosspots have zero self awareness about how ridiculous they look. Greta has done a great job raising the public profile of the climate issue, whatever you may think about it (or her). But she has less than zero credibility on the COVID-19 pandemic - this is knee jerk leftism of the most risible kind - they might as well have appointed ChiChi the Panda to their "expert coronavirus panel" - at least she is Chinese.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I agree this is ridiculous.

westv
15 May 2020 09:31:41


 


I agree this is ridiculous.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Do NOT diss Saint Greta! 


 


At least it will be mild!
Darren S
15 May 2020 09:37:18


 


It is CNN - the tosspots have zero self awareness about how ridiculous they look. Greta has done a great job raising the public profile of the climate issue, whatever you may think about it (or her). But she has less than zero credibility on the COVID-19 pandemic - this is knee jerk leftism of the most risible kind - they might as well have appointed ChiChi the Panda to their "expert coronavirus panel" - at least she is Chinese.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I've said from the start that Covid-19 has reduced CO2 emissions to a far greater extent than Greta has - she's almost redundant in that respect.

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Brian Gaze
15 May 2020 09:42:28

Good example of where the EU adds value and potentially saves lives. The EU approved the Roche antibody test 10 days before the UK. Were we following EU certification we would have saved 10 days and avoided duplication of work. 


 


The Roche test received a conformity assessment, known as Conformité Européenne, or CE mark, from the European Union on April 28 and received Emergency Use Authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on May 2.


...


Tests carried out by Public Health England at Porton Down, a laboratory that provides sensitive and specialist scientific services to the government, concluded on May 7 that the Roche test detected the exact antibodies prompted by the virus. The findings were only made public late on Wednesday.


https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-roche-hldg/uk-follows-eu-u-s-in-approving-roche-covid-19-antibody-tests-idUKKBN22P362


 


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Sharp Green Fox
15 May 2020 09:43:18


Well, let's be positive. The good news this morning is that the UK Government is going to take public health very seriously in future.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-to-launch-war-on-fat-after-coronavirus-scare-flgswhmvx


"Boris Johnson is preparing a “much more interventionist” drive to tackle obesity as part of the fight against coronavirus after his spell in hospital with the disease.


The prime minister told senior ministers and advisers, “I’ve changed my mind on this” and that he was drawing up a new strategy.


Research has found that being obese doubles the risk of needing hospital treatment for coronavirus. About one in three British adults is clinically obese, classified as those with a body mass index (BMI) above 30. It is one of the highest rates in the western world.


..."



  • if you are looking for the reason behind high mortality rates in the UK and USA, look no further - COVID-19 is a virus missile which seeks out the elderly, those with existing health problems and the obese.


Unfortunately, there is not a lot we can do about getting old or having people with horrible life threatening conditions like cancer or MS, but we can do something about fat people who should otherwise be healthy. One of the key signatures of younger people requiring hospitalisation with COVID-19 has been Type 2 diabetes - a fat person's illness.


Get lean, get fit and beat the virus should be the slogan!


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


I wonder what BMI Mr Johnson has?  

Maunder Minimum
15 May 2020 09:44:36


This is quite a cool idea/look 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-52663568/coronavirus-amsterdam-trials-covid-safe-restaurant


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Does not look "cool" to me - after a few hours of summer sun, it would be the customers cooking, rather than the food.


Shy nudist families

New world order coming.
Hippydave
15 May 2020 09:45:24


 


I've said from the start that Covid-19 has reduced CO2 emissions to a far greater extent than Greta has - she's almost redundant in that respect.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


At the risk of dragging this OT historically recessions however caused have reduced emissions and they then strongly rebound during the recovery phase. Unless there are large societal changes that result from the pandemic it's likely exactly the same thing will happen here, meaning emissions had a temporary blip before continuing as before or worse as the economic stimuli lead to an increase from the pre-pandemic position.


 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Retron
15 May 2020 09:45:29


Good example of where the EU adds value and potentially saves lives. The EU approved the Roche antibody test 10 days before the UK. Were we following EU certification we would have saved 10 days and avoided duplication of work.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Given that we're 100% aligned with EU standards still, it baffles me why they waited so long to approve the Roche and Abbott tests - that's the whole point of getting them CE marked, it saves duplicate work.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Maunder Minimum
15 May 2020 09:49:48


 


Given that we're 100% aligned with EU standards still, it baffles me why they waited so long to approve the Roche and Abbott tests - that's the whole point of getting them CE marked, it saves duplicate work.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Well, it made sense that the UK Government would want Porten Down to validate them independently. I don't think 10 days difference is either here or there and there is still the price for the tests to be negotiated. At least the whole project is now moving and there will be mass antibody tests sooner or later.


When should you get the results of your test?

New world order coming.
Retron
15 May 2020 09:52:53


When should you get the results of your test?


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It should be today, sometime - I've a funny feeling they might be delayed though!

Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
15 May 2020 09:57:22


I wonder what BMI Mr Johnson has?  


Originally Posted by: Sharp Green Fox 


Pretty high I'd imagine.


It's worth reminding folks though that age is by far the biggest factor. Yes, those in hospital who are younger are disproportionaly obese, but being fat doesn't mean you will need to go to hospital.


There's something else going on which means some people are more prone than others, obesity is just one of those factors. (If obesity was a big issue with Covid, as age is, you would expect far more younger people in hospital than there are and have been. It certainly doesn't help being fat, but in and of itself it doesn't mean you will end up in dire straits. It does mean that if the other factors end up pushing you into hospital, your odds will be worse.)


 


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Darren S
15 May 2020 09:58:12


 


At the risk of dragging this OT historically recessions however caused have reduced emissions and they then strongly rebound during the recovery phase. Unless there are large societal changes that result from the pandemic it's likely exactly the same thing will happen here, meaning emissions had a temporary blip before continuing as before or worse as the economic stimuli lead to an increase from the pre-pandemic position.


 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


I work in IT, an industry where people normally travel for meetings, often overseas, just because of a perceived importance for face to face interactions. The pandemic has forced people to find an alternative in Zoom/Teams etc. and the realisation has dawned that business travel is, in the main, a waste of money and time and drags people away from their families. The same is even true of daily commuting. One of my roles is running training courses, which I wouldn't have even entertained the idea of attempting to do remotely, but now I've actually got a remote setup which is just as good if not better.


For this reason, I'm convinced that when the Pandemic is eventually over, although holiday travel will return to normal, business travel will never be the same again - which must account for a significant proportion of flights. Working from home will permanently replace commuting for very many people.


So not only is this good news for the environment, but I also can't see Heathrow ever needing to build a third runway. I think we've passed "peak air-travel".

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Brian Gaze
15 May 2020 10:01:16


Pretty high I'd imagine.


It's worth reminding folks though that age is by far the biggest factor. Yes, those in hospital who are younger are disproportionaly obese, but being fat doesn't mean you will need to go to hospital.


There's something else going on which means some people are more prone than others, obesity is just one of those factors. (If obesity was a big issue with Covid, as age is, you would expect far more younger people in hospital than there are and have been. It certainly doesn't help being fat, but in and of itself it doesn't mean you will end up in dire straits. It does mean that if the other factors end up pushing you into hospital, your odds will be worse.)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I agree with this. My concern is the fat angle is being pushed for the wrong reasons. In actual factor being a non-smoker appears to present a greater risk than being fat. 


Johnson's BMI is 36 according to The Times this morning.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
15 May 2020 10:01:23


 


Does not look "cool" to me - after a few hours of summer sun, it would be the customers cooking, rather than the food.


Shy nudist families


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 



That would horribly remind me too much of my old tomato farmer years. Anyway, someone on Facebook suggested that for here at the harbour area, I said that wouldn't last a week given the exposed nature of the location.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Brian Gaze
15 May 2020 10:02:22


 


I work in IT, an industry where people normally travel for meetings, often overseas, just because of a perceived importance for face to face interactions. The pandemic has forced people to find an alternative in Zoom/Teams etc. and the realisation has dawned that business travel is, in the main, a waste of money and time and drags people away from their families. The same is even true of daily commuting. One of my roles is running training courses, which I wouldn't have even entertained the idea of attempting to do remotely, but now I've actually got a remote setup which is just as good if not better.


For this reason, I'm convinced that when the Pandemic is eventually over, although holiday travel will return to normal, business travel will never be the same again - which must account for a significant proportion of flights. Working from home will permanently replace commuting for very many people.


So not only is this good news for the environment, but I also can't see Heathrow ever needing to build a third runway. I think we've passed "peak air-travel".


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


I thought in many cases that was actually the reason FOR business travel. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tierradelfuego
15 May 2020 10:07:10

Likewise Darren, in terms of we work in the same sector, and my thoughts. From the early planning our company has done it seems unlikely the office will be more than 50% occupied this calendar year. We are doing our FY21 planning now, and whilst I think there will be a travel budget, I'm sure for a variety of reasons it will be dramatically reduced next year. Another year down the line, people will certainly feel like it's the norm not to fly off to San Fran or elsewhere for a week of meetings.

Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
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Heavy Weather 2013
15 May 2020 10:07:14


 


I work in IT, an industry where people normally travel for meetings, often overseas, just because of a perceived importance for face to face interactions. The pandemic has forced people to find an alternative in Zoom/Teams etc. and the realisation has dawned that business travel is, in the main, a waste of money and time and drags people away from their families. The same is even true of daily commuting. One of my roles is running training courses, which I wouldn't have even entertained the idea of attempting to do remotely, but now I've actually got a remote setup which is just as good if not better.


For this reason, I'm convinced that when the Pandemic is eventually over, although holiday travel will return to normal, business travel will never be the same again - which must account for a significant proportion of flights. Working from home will permanently replace commuting for very many people.


So not only is this good news for the environment, but I also can't see Heathrow ever needing to build a third runway. I think we've passed "peak air-travel".


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


I concur. Internally people are starting to think - Do I need to commute every day and use 2-3hrs and spend money that I could save.


Im going to WFM at least 5 days a month when this Pandemic is over.


We have a big office in central London. I suspect the business will now start to think ‘Why’. It probably costs a fortune to run. Now they will start to think we have adapted for three months why not downscale and fundamentally change how we do thinks.


Business travel will change as well. It’s not just flying, it’s business expenses etc. Why do all that for a 1-2 day meeting when you can do over zoom.


Business leaders will be thinking of all the savings they could make, and in a lot of cases they will need to do just that to survive 


 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Phil G
15 May 2020 10:08:26


 


I've said from the start that Covid-19 has reduced CO2 emissions to a far greater extent than Greta has - she's almost redundant in that respect.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Haha. Anyway, how as we have cleaned the air over the last two decades, why has our climate got warmer still? The harmful greenhouse gasses are still up there, will be for many perhaps hundreds of years. The other gasses like sulfates that contribute towards global dimming and keeping the earth cooler only last at best three weeks. So, as we clean the air, the greenhouse gasses are still there but the other gasses that keep us cooler aren't. As we clean the air further, this gas differential will only get larger so we will continue to warm, maybe significantly.


I am all for getting rid of fossil fuels are replacing with cleaner fuels, but if people think by stopping emissions now will solve the problem, it won't. In contrast, the action of cleaning the air will only speed up the warming quicker. I don't know what the answer is but it appears our innocent actions may be taking us towards the precipice even quicker.

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
15 May 2020 10:11:34


 


I concur. Internally people are starting to think - Do I need to commute every day and use 2-3hrs and spend money that I could save.


Im going to WFM at least 5 days a month when this Pandemic is over.


We have a big office in central London. I suspect the business will now start to think ‘Why’. It probably costs a fortune to run. Now they will start to think we have adapted for three months why not downscale and fundamentally change how we do thinks.


Business travel will change as well. It’s not just flying, it’s business expenses etc. Why do all that for a 1-2 day meeting when you can do over zoom.


Business leaders will be thinking of all the savings they could make, and in a lot of cases they will need to do just that to survive 


 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Sounds excellent, if only proper broadband and back up of mobile data coverage (to do it) was available in the less favoured areas like here where we have neither.

North York Moors weather 

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