I occasionally forget to report some days. (I report on behalf of my wife and daughters as well as me). You can either say you're fine, or report you've got symptoms. Even if 60% of people only reported on a given day, which is quite likely, it doesn't matter because it's like an opinion poll; the total number of cases is extrapolated from the number of responses they get.

It's only inaccurate if, for some reason, there is a greater tendency for either symptomatic, or asymptomatic/uninfected people to report. The trend is only inaccurate if that tendency changes over time.

With such a large sample, it's probably a very good guide to what's really happening, and leads all other indicators (e.g. people are more likely to report symptoms before they end up being tested).

At best, it seems the Oxford one reduces the severity of the infection. It produces antibodies but they're not enough to totally block it.

The Chinese one is a better bet, if you trust it that is!

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

The antibodies testing over here is picking up historic cases of covid. As we only have 4 active cases at the moment, testing is now being used for tracing and community immunity. We have had several cases now where people felt ill 6 or 7 weeks ago and had the original swab test which was negative. Now are found to have the antibodies which would suggest the swab testing is Not as reliable as we would like. Not surprising due to how invasive the swab test is even when carried out by medical practitioners. 

Yup I think that's correct. If nothing else it could potentially significantly reduce mortality and those suffering serious complications - the big problem as you say is do you rush out and vaccinate with that or wait and see if something better comes along. 

That would be a really horribly decision to make IMO - on the one hand waiting will mean people die that didn't need to and if no more effective vaccine is developed the deaths will be even higher and entirely needless, on the other if having this vaccine means you can't have one that would stop the disease spreading your country is going to be disadvantaged once that's available and if the original vaccine only reduced deaths to a less horrible number whereas the new one stopped them entirely you're going to get crucified for that.

Could all be irrelevant I guess if the small scale human trial is a bust but hopefully even the failed attempts will help us learn more about the virus so better treatments can be developed even if a preventative vaccine isn't possible.

You are bang on

All i'm hearing from those at home on furlough is " I'm boreddddddddddddddddd " we are working like mad here.

They have had constant dry weather in these parts for 7 weeks , as you said wont happen again 

I agree as well. Some of those who have been furloughed don't realise how lucky they have been - paid 80% of their wage to do F all for the last 7 weeks, whilst people like you and I have been working non-stop since through this pandemic. I've got a week off at the start of June and I honestly can't wait for it...

Only boring people get bored, as my mum said (after I complained bitterly one half-term about being bored. I then got roped into cleaning the bathroom, vacuuming the floors, cleaning the windows, weeding, helping with the laundry... now that was boring!)

It's actually quite an eye-opener that some people are so wedded to their jobs that they don't know how to fill the time without it! By working at home I've gained about 12 hours a week (due to lack of commuting and getting in early), but do I notice it? Not at all - the time gets eaten up by all sorts of things, including tending to the garden. At least that looks a bit tidier than it has for a few years.

I want to retire as soon as I can, truth be told. I don't miss the commute whatsoever and although I may miss the social aspects of work, I'll be gaining a dog (and can still invite friends round).

All being well, I'll have less than 10 years of the "rat run" to go... and boy, it's going to be a jolt when things finally get back to normal with the commute...

In the meantime, at least there's a bank holiday weekend coming up. I plan to spend a couple of hours of it watching the new Star Wars movie, should be fun!

Sorry, I apologise . That sounds fine. I read it as if you were saying there was no risk to you and you hadn't thought about transmission but clearly you have.  

Yes, my view entirely. It's hard to tell which outnumbers which in terms of over reporting or asymptomatic, but as you say it won't affect the trend graph.

You should have told your mum that made no sense as boring people wouldn't know when they were bored. Ha!

The threat of redundancy once you get back to work takes the edge off, ever so slightly though. 

Being furloughed isn't wonderful for everybody. For many, the whole experience will be tainted with severe anxiety. 

A vaccine which significantly reduces the severity of infection would also be a game changer though. Obviously it depends on the extent. 

I'm going to take news reports re. the Oxford vaccine with a pinch of salt for now.

Yes, the Chinese one is now the favoured candidate. I believe the US have one in human trials and the Germans kick off next month (or it could be this month actually).

However, we should remember not to judge others by our own experiences and appreciate others have different circumstances.  Furlough might be a godsend to some but a problem for others. 

The hope is the unprecedented efforts worldwide are bound to get us somewhere, whether it's through prevention or treatment.

I do think we'll get there, somewhere & somehow.

Trying to be logical, rather than optimistic. 

UK data

• Tests - 100,678


• People tested - 67,409


• Positive cases - 2,684


• All settings deaths - 160

Daily slides

Mobility - JVT says "gradual upward trend in searches for walking and driving directions, but public transport search levels are "flat".

Testing and new cases - JVT says "Definite and sustained decline in new confirmed cases"

People in hospital - JVT says " patients in hospital with COVID-19 is now in sustained decline again, very good news"

All settings deaths with 7-day rolling average - JVT says "consistent and solid decline' in virus deaths"

Italy 

• 451 new cases


• 99 new deaths

Two observations:-

1. Confirmed cases 2,684 which is down. Yet this was described as a "continuous fall" which it clearly isn't as the previous five points on his graph were indicating a plateau or  in fact a slight rise ! 


2.  The mobility data is from i-phones only. Although the market share in the UK with android is about 50/50 I would think the data will be skewed towards the higher income groups as there are far more "affordable" Android phones available.