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xioni2
19 May 2020 20:21:07


Deaths from coronavirus in Britain could stop by the end of June if current trends continue, scientists have said.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It's even better than this, the trend will continue beyond July with people resurrected. 

SJV
19 May 2020 20:24:38


 


It's even better than this, the trend will continue beyond July with people resurrected. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I look forward to Gavin D's stats saying that PHE have reported -14 deaths today 


Anyway, I think the content of that article, like many of its kind, comes with usual caveats of looking so far ahead. There's a lot to get right if we're looking at no deaths by July and I'm not sure I trust the powers that be to deliver on it.

xioni2
19 May 2020 20:28:55


The failure of PHE


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It's tempting to agree with you, but you can't have it both ways. When I listed the successes of the govt I mentioned the impressive increase of ICUs. You, Maunder etc. also attribute this as a success of the govt (and not of the NHS) and then blame PHE for other failures. You can't have it both ways, both PHE and the NHS are run by the govt and in fact PHE was setup in 2013 by a Tory health secretary.

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
19 May 2020 20:52:34


Not sure what to make of this other than good news if true.


Coronavirus deaths in Britain could stop by end of June, scientists say
Number of deaths on Monday was 545, down from 627 a week ago, and seven-day average is now 378


Deaths from coronavirus in Britain could stop by the end of June if current trends continue, scientists have said.


The number of deaths on Monday was 545, down from 627 a week ago, and the seven-day average is now 378. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, on average, deaths are now falling at a rate of around 30 each day.


Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, said that there would be a sporadic rise and fall in deaths over the next four to six weeks but he would not expect to find coronavirus listed in the ONS death data by the end of June.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/19/coronavirus-deaths-britain-could-stop-end-june-scientists-say/


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It is easy to follow a curve down and predict when it will bottom out - assuming nothing changes - but it has and will.


Perhaps he has done some detailed modelling to show that the relaxation in the lockdown will have no effect.


Is his model available for public scrutiny and ridicule like Ferguson's?

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Justin W
19 May 2020 20:57:36



 


The failure of PHE


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Anything but holding those actually in charge accountable for 60,000 deaths, eh? Defend your precious Tory Party to the death.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
19 May 2020 21:00:10


 


It's tempting to agree with you, but you can't have it both ways. When I listed the successes of the govt I mentioned the impressive increase of ICUs. You, Maunder etc. also attribute this as a success of the govt (and not of the NHS) and then blame PHE for other failures. You can't have it both ways, both PHE and the NHS are run by the govt and in fact PHE was setup in 2013 by a Tory health secretary.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Yes it is strange that any hint of success is due to our faultless gov't but any failure is the responsibility of a third party - which just happens to be an arm of gov't.

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Brian Gaze
19 May 2020 21:31:15

More on the NHS app-ocalypse




Security flaws found in UK's contact-tracing app






Wide-ranging security flaws have been flagged in the NHS's contact-tracing app being piloted in the Isle of Wight.


Security researchers involved argue that the problems pose risks to users' privacy and could be abused to prevent contagion alerts being sent.


GCHQ's National Cyber Security Centre told the BBC it was already aware of most of the issues raised and is in the process of addressing them.


But the researchers suggest a more fundamental rethink is required.


They suggest the NHS considers shifting from its current "centralised" model - where contact-matching happens on a computer server - to a "decentralised" version - where the matching instead happens on people's phones. [source: BBC]



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Chichesterweatherfan2
19 May 2020 21:45:47
It appears that Johnson has been busy after all, nominating Captain Tom Moore for a Knighthood...Isn't it simply marvellous that we have a PM with his finger on the pulse with the most important decisions to be made....

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