http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 fine and dry for this week with warmth notably in the south, but cooler and damper (not really wet) next week -looking rather as if the cold pool over central Europe is working its way towards us (see GFS below)

GFS: HP centred over UK all this week fed by warm air from the south but moving off to Norway with more of an easterly feed from Sat 30th. New HP then developing to the SW and moving up to Iceland by Sat 6th with a northerly flow. The LP over Norway providing that flow then settles over the UK and quite cool (the 552 dam line encircles the UK Wed 10th)

GEFS - this summary applies countrywide: doesn't pick up extra warmth as forecast on BBC and ECM, stays resolutely close to average to Fri 5th. The mean then still close to seasonal norm but op and control runs take a dip. Bits and pieces of rain from Mon 1st but nothing significant. 

ECM: similar pressure pattern but manages to draw up more warmth from the south this week.

Looking very dry again on the GEFS. The lawns and verges around here are already August straw colour and it’s not even June yet!

P13 is properly scorchio 

Yes I followed 13 through. Early June 1947 feel.

I only ever saw white-grass fields in May once- in 1989, and then it was patchy. 

Looks to me less settled at the weekend?

Yes a few ppn spikes starting about June 3 but generally looking pretty settled I think. 

Jetstream starts off fragmented but mostly either north of UK or fading out before reaching us until Tue 2nd when the forecast resumes its dalliance with a major loop creating a cut-off low moving S from Ireland to Iberia. The main stream then resumes N of the UK but tending to run NW to SE down into the N Sea.

GFS shows HP over the UK to Sun 31st with warm air from the S. On Mon a significant LP develops NW of Ireland 990mb and runs S to Iberia by Sun 7th while HP re-establishes N behind it and moves over the UK.This HP does not persist and by Thu 11th slck LP covers the UK. The forecast for the first week of June thus matches the jetstream nicely but is quite different from yesterday! e.g. the cold spell at the end of yesterday's run is no longer there.

GEFS mean temps in the SE stay close to norm through to Thu 11th without too much scatter even later on (query: why isn't it picking up the warmth forecast in other models this week?) Dry to Wed 3rd, bits and pieces of rain thereafter. Scotland and the NW do manage some extra warmth this week and has a lot more uncertainty later; there is slightly more in the way of rain also starting earlier in Scotland Mon 1st.

ECM similar to GFS though the LP is less well defined at first.

Models may be in lockstep but still struggling with a consistent day-by-day pattern for more than a week ahead

The pattern change still on for the 4th June

GEM also joining the unsettled and cool start to June this was not in the script. Could blow a few long range forecasts out straight away.

The ECM though keeps it warm and pretty settled out to day 10 very warm in the south. Looks like it would avoid the GFS type northerly. Excellent run 

Well the Met are on board..

"Confidence lowers during early June but signals show a shift to more changeable weather with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain across all parts. Despite the spells of wetter weather there will be some drier and brighter interludes for most. Temperatures likely closer to around average for many but perhaps staying warmer for some across the south."

"Warmer for some in the south" - to me that hints at predominant wind direction being from northerly quarter. Which when i last checked the models last night they had them coming from. :) 

Of course i imagine when it's piddling it down with winds in Scotland, or wet in the Midlands the metoffice will be getting slated on here. 

Not necessarily. Could just be higher pressure to the south; in any case there's a lot of uncertainty in the modeling atm.

If you read the whole quote with my post you should have seen that they say "chance of showers or longer spells of rain across all parts" So high pressure is unlikely to be why it would be "warmer for (here is the key word) some across the south". 

Definitely a northerly influence on the ECM mean by day 10 . Up til then it's very warm and settled . Often predicted northerlies get pushed east so let's hope this happens again.

that's rich coming from you 

GFS has slack low pressure to our east, and high to our west with a largely N/NE air flow. This would probably bring showers to most central, northern, and eastern parts. Average temps across midlands and western parts. Cooler in eastern parts, and rather warm south of the M4 and west of Hasting, and the south west.

Ensemble mean stays close to average from June 3rd but at that point clustering occurs in both directions. Also noticeable are the rainfall spikes  which are small and diurnal related so indicates showers rather than prolonged rain

 Thank you Dave. Bit of a fuss kicked up in here tonight but this possible change is still in FI and we've had similar noise throughout May and by and large any cooler and unsettled spells have been transitory. More runs needed.

One plonker on Netweather writing off June based on the GFS alone 

Yes - It's around this time of year that some obsess about the "June Monsoon". I'll see where we are in a weeks time before getting over excited!