GEFS has gradually erased the cold uppers in recent days. The world may be coming off the rails but the UK's weather continues as ever!

The last thing we need right now is for winter to start. Let’s hope for some dry sunny days to brighten our days.  

A heatwave would be good to hopefully dampen down the virus. 

Jet stream as previously forecast splitting into two but northerly branch ore dominant and closer to Scotland until Thu 28th when the energy goes south and runs through the Med. The last frame Sat 4th shows it returning to UK.

GFS0z has the forecast HP traversing the UK and up to Scandi 1035 mb Sun 22nd and then develops ridge to E Russia over the following week to Sat 28th (yesterday's forecast northerly plunge over central Europe shown on GFS and BBC has gone much further east) and SE winds for UK with occsional embedded troughs for UK in that time. HP then works its way back to Iceland 1030mb Wed 1st with ridge to UK before the Atlantic resumes business as usual on Sat 4th.

ECM generally agrees but has the HP weaker by Thu 26th so not so much occasional embedded troughs as LP settling over UK around Fri 27th

As Brian points out above, GEFS temps flatlining (Plymouth notably so) with fairly good agreement between runs, mild around Tue 24th, cool from Fri 28th, a few rainfall spikes appearing from Mon 30th onwards in the S & E but rather earlier in the N & W

Is there are weather forum here too?!

On GFS, HP dominates over the next two weeks. First it moves up into Norway then settles down as a ridge from Denmark E-wards Tue 24th with E-ly winds over UK (These cold at first but the extension E-wards cuts off the Arctic flow later). HP weakens by Sat 28th and the UK is under trough from Iceland to Iberia, but this gets pushed aside by HP from Atlantic 1030mb Scotland Wed 1st, which also moves off to the Baltic by Sun 5th with light SW-lies for UK.

ECM similar but trough on Sat 28th is deeper and further east with a distinct run of N-lies for a couple of days.

GEFS cool at first, mild around Tue 24th, mean of runs close to seasonal norm thereafter but with wide divergence by Sat 4th (as much as 10C above to 10C below in the S, op and control on mild side). Odd bits of rain from 1st April, some earlier spikes in north

On the GEFS for London there is a notable lack of rainfall spikes, until April (which can easily change seeing as how far into the future it is).  But no matter what the temperature, At Least It Will Be Dry.

Thank God for that! And if the sun shines it generally won't feel too bad. Lord knows we need a bit of sunshine right now 

Jetstream now showing close to NW Scotland for first half of week (too close for comfort?) but fragmenting completely by Sat 28th. Then a weaker branch over N Norway and a stronger one close to S Britain in the following week, eventually moving away S-wards by Sat 5t

GFS 0z has present HP moving to Baltic  1040 mb by Tue 24th, ridge to UK with SE winds in S and SW winds in N. A shift in the position of the ridge allow LP from south to drift up over UK Sat 28th, reinforced Wed 1st by HP block over Iceland. After that, the situation is messy, with the UK under a broad col, LP to E & W, HP to N & S.

ECM in general agreement, though shows a stronger link between local LP on Sat 28th with trough extending up to Arctic, could turn out colder that way.

GEFS mild 23rd - 25th, cool 26th - 1st, after that around the seasonal norm with less scatter than yesterday, Very dry to start with except NW Scotland & NI; rainfall spikes start appearing  earlier than yesterday, from 27th in S and 25th in NW but vary between runs and many runs stay dry for longer.

Check out the ECM at 192 hours at the months end !

GFS 0z much as yesterday, HP settling over Baltic with ridge to UK all the coming week, winds mostly from SE. That HP declines a little Sun 28th allowing elongated trough Svalbard to Italy to bring colder N-lies. After hanging about in a rather uncertain fashion, the trough gives way to HP from Atlantic Wed 1st 1020 mb Wales. Then we get a repeat with HP establishing over Scandi with ridge to UK Sun 5th and at the end of the run, another trough with northerlies, more potent this time (the HP has gone away and parked itself over Iceland)

ECM is rather more certain and shows defined LP with 1000 mb centre in the N Sea Tue 31st but until then agrees with GFS

GEFS mild (+5 C wrt norm) 24th, coldish (-5 C) 29th, mean back to norm on 1st but with quite a lot of divergence from that date (up to +/- 10C), sporadic rainfall from 29th in some runs

Drier for the next two weeks than previously shown on http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 (not that there was much rain about anyway, the small patch that was over us has moved off to Denmark)

That's rather chilly from ECM

That's not proven  the moment

Should have been here in January 

I wonder is this could be a sign of the NAO moving from the positive phase it was in right through the winter to a negative one. I seem to recall one or two people back in January predicting that this would happen as we moved into spring.

Yes you did IIRC 

Are the ENS picking up on this SSW occurring now as many ENS are going to -10c @ 850hpa with now the op being the milder run!? - Looks like there will be a tropospheric response!? Or is this too early to tell and maybe this is because the PV is weaker in general? -Either way it will turn colder and there is no sign of any warm springlike weather from midweek looking at the 18z ENS for London.

A pity this never happened in January but oh well. 

I agree with that which is why this ongoing SSW is occurring far too late in my books. As we saw in the winter of 2018/19, we still wouldn't have been guaranteed a tropospheric response to this SSW event if it had occurred during the winter, but we would at least have been in with a chance of such a response if that had been the case

One thing which is interesting me though, is that just about all of the short-term models are now pointing towards northern blocking appearing at some point in time but in response to that, I have to ask the question of where on Earth was this northern blocking during the winter when we were actually looking for it (at least, those of us who like to see some cold and snowy weather during the winter)?

Dry but northern cold making a re-appearance in week 2 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS has Baltic HP all week with S/SE winds (some rain brushing NW) then Sat 28th twin centres of HP in Atlantic and Russia leave UK in a weak trough with some cold air filtering down from N; the Atlantic high develops NE-wards with a spell of E/NE winds the following week. Finally a vicious N-ly blast Sun 5th affecting Scandi and Germany, just missing UK which is still dominated by HP by then centred over Scotland.

FAX has weak front embedded in the HP this week moving slowly S so it won't be wall-to-wall sunshine for everyone

ECM much the same but links the E/NE winds to an Arctic source so colder than GFS

GEFS mild 24th Mar, cold 29th Mar (colder than yesterday 7C below norm), mostly recovering to norm 3rd April. Dry, less rain than yesterday's forecast, perhaps a little around Thu 2 Apr for the S or 27th Mar for the N

For reasons set out in the Forum Arms Daily Thread these summaries may be posted irregularly in the coming week. Normal service (virus permitting) resumes Tue 31st

Seems like we could see the coldest airmass of the entire 'winter' next week. Would not rule out some late march or early April snow.