Summer fans should not look at this morning's GFS ouch!

GEM much better decent push torwards the uk from the Azores high.

Fascinating output actually this morning because it looks like the Ukmo is building in the Azores GEM style at 144h aswell but it still could go the absolute horror show of the GFS. All eyes on the ECM now.

Ironically, we are stuck between two blocking highs with us stuck in no mans land. This after enjoying the blocking for so many weeks.

With HP near by the hope has to be that it will meander back over us.

Its certainly and unwelcome change of you like the sunny and dry weather.

Yes, a real 'Moomin run' that one :)

UK looks as if it's sandwiched in the cold patch between the two above-mentioned HPs http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4. For the immediate future Arpege & Hirlam and probably other rainfall models show bands of showers irregularly running down from the north with the most likely chances of rain across N England and, curiously given the presence of LP off the east coast, down the west coast instead. But this could change - the NetO has heavy rain along the S  (central) Coast today when yesterday there was nothing. And the BBC is talking about snow above 2000m on Friday in Scotland.

GFS models a N-ly flow with deep LP off E Scotland 980mb Sat 6th and gales all down the E coast. That fills by Tue 9th but tenative approaches by HP from the SW are rebuffed by new LP Wed 10th, same position but only 1000mb. That LP wobbles around and deepens off Ireland 990mb Sun14th, eventually filling there by Fri 19th, but despite its position not pulling in any warmth from the south until then   (i.e. HP building in from Europe)

GEFS a bit more optimistic on temps; cold this weekend but most runs back above norm Thu 11th but declining a little later on. Lots of rain in SE on most days on most runs to Mon 15th , less persistent but still present after that. Rain more patchy in Scotland after Mon 8th. other way about in SW with more rain later. Rainfall models don't look very stable anyway.

ECM much the same as GFS to Wed 10th (today's run); yesterday's run then recovered with HP and warmth from the SW but needs checking when today's run appears as current output has taken a turn for the worse. EDIT: yes, ECM now emphasises that LP over Ireland but moves it S to Iberia so E-lies for S coast and HP with warmth over Scotland linking both to Atlantic and Europe. Sat 13th

Looks like the ECM ends up in-between the GEM and GFS and similar to the GFS control hot easterly but with plenty of thundery showers in the south.

Very interesting output because we are a few tweaks away from a significant heatwave or 2007 style flooding rains.

The whole of June? Do you have a crystal ball. In fact you post alludes to the whole of summer. 

Please can you share the charts where you are seeing this?

Although this year the UK looks like getting the monsoon but not Europe. Is it supposed to work like that? I thought the effect was supposed to be due to the continent warming up and generating rising hot air with thundery lows there, not an arctic blast leaving iits remnants in the N Sea?

That’s my optimistic view anyway!

 I remain open on this but did you predict the extremely dry Spring in February? . 

I did, however, suggest a very wet winter, although I didnt expect it to be as mild as it was, as I thought there were would a few wintry interludes, which never materialised.

For what it's worth, for this summer, I feel that June will be very much the worst month with a CET of around 1c below average with rainfall substantially above average.

July I think will be drier, with a CET around 0.5-1c above average and rainfall at around 80-90% of average.

August in my view will be the best month of the summer with a CET around 1.5c above average and a drier than average month.

I don't  actually foresee a repeat of 2012 or 2007, but I say there is a chance, particularly if La Nina develops quickly in the Pacific.

Just looking back through this thread and it's clear the GFS has been keen to bring in very unsettled weather at various points this Spring and it has never materialised . So a good chance it's over doing it again. Also the ECM often over does northern blocking, so in conclusion the GEM has it nailed this morning. 

The monsoon refers more to a period of mobile weather, Atlantic lows and such, rather than heat lows. It usually comes complete with lower temperatures as a result, which usually causes at least a bit of "writing off" on here!

(I suspect the mechanics are due to the last dregs of cold air from the pole moving south, triggering a brief increase in westerlies).

That doesn't sound like a bad summer to me, and certainly better than I thought you were anticipating given some of your comments. I'd take a decent August, for once.

Moomin is the forum's resident Prophet of Doom. View his forecasts through that prism.

As you will see from my above post, I'm not actually anticipating a particularly dreadful summer, I said there is a chance of that.

My gut feel is for a terrible June, a half decent July and a good August....Coming out over the three months as a whole a fairly average summer though.

Re pattern matching: I know that some people put a lot of faith in this, but I personally think it is a bit unwise to say the least to put a huge amount of faith in this method when the have such a variable climate.

My own view is that at the moment, the models seem to be struggling a bit with the unsual pattern we presently have, hence the fluctuations from one set of runs to the next. The models often seem to do best when we have the normal west-east pattern in place, like what we had throughout last winter.

What we do seem to be lacking at the moment is some consistency. Until we get that or a run-to-run basis one way or the other, I don't see how anyone can predict with even a modicum of condifence that June will be either a washout of a heatwave for the rest of the month.

It's each to their own really. Some tend to post a lot more when the outlook looks unsettled, ready to then write off the month while others post more when something warmer or more thundery shows up in the ensembles. There are a few who cherry pick to suit their narratives and over the years I've definitely done both. We need a balance 

GFS 00z operational was not a good run, though it wasn't well represented in the ensembles. We had a similarly shocking GFS operational in mid-May that never materialised. One poster leapt on both with a negative vigour that is unparalleled on this forum (seriously, Mooms, top up that glass mate!) 

Clearly, this unsettled spell we're in now has a bit more meat to it and is actually welcome for many given our parched landscapes. The moorlands around here have had a few small fires thanks to the oxygen-thiefs with their disposable BBQs so I'm all for the rainy outlook in the reliable.

Towards mid-month we have continued signs of a return to warmer weather, though there are big question marks over how dry it'll be especially further south where there could be issues with heavy showers or thunderstorms 

Regarding pattern matching, I think like any long-range forecasting tool it is a best guess based on the science of their choosing. It is flawed but occasionally the patterns will line up. Most of the time they won't due to the fact the charts aren't exactly the same nor is our climate. Like pretty much everyone on here I take any long ranger with a huge pinch of salt.

I don't mind any view now as long as their is some evidence to back that view up