Absolutely right, we need to trust our own. 😀

The GFS has finally fallen in line with UKMO and ECM with the mid-week south-tracking low so there does seem to be more of an agreement of a more unsettled second half of the week. A bit of a disappointment for those hoping for a quick return to something resembling Summer.

I‘m only teasing Moomin and yes it does look a bit more unsettled than many of the charts were suggesting yesterday. To me that suggests a large degree of uncertainty. It may be okay or it may be a bit rubbish but I’m not sure which just yet.

Both GEM and the mighty NAVGEM go very hot at the end of their runs. Both have a low west of Ireland pumping up some serious heat. The next chase?

UKM seems a more moderate sensible solution, drying up by the weekend

It's a very realistic possibility, IMO 

No evidence of a washout so far on the 12z ECM.

Proper easterly setting in though. Generally dry and warm but plenty of cloud in the east would be my best guess.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

The best weather reserved for Shetland. ;-) 

Yes it's the best of the big guns tonight. That little low is causing model chaos such a strange little feature will be very difficult for them to model accurately.

2010 had a little more than this year Doc, but going back to 2000 and more especially back to 1990 and before, iit is remarkable how much more sub -10 air there was at this date, but I agree the 2010 date was not much better. Hopefully the zonal winter will have thickened the ice this year to ensure some resilience. 

An improved picture this morning more settled than yesterday. Temps should get to mid to high 20s in any sunshine from Friday. But with some thundery rain/thunderstorms to keep the farmers/gardener's happy.

Jetstream curling around the UK now gives way to a NW streak Wed 10th, itself creating a loop in Biscay Fri 12th while the main stream reverts to running N of the UK. By Wed 17th that has split in two , one branch each side of the UK Fri 19th, soon breaking up after which fragments of it appear all over the place.

GFS shows ridge of HP over Atlantic developing to Iceland by Thu 11th but leaving room for LP over France to affect S Britain. The LP remains while the ridge splits into two centres, Atlantic and Norwegian, by Wed 17th. Eventually the LP declines off Ireland Mon 22nd allowing HP and possibly v. warm weather to come in from the east.

GEFS in S shows temps recovering to near or above normal (not as high as yesterday) Thu 11th with significant rain for a few days; later on there is still some rain but fragmentary to Tue 23rd. Scotland similar but warming and rain a day or so earlier i.e. from Wed 10th

ECM similar but the Atlantic half of the HP is weaker, allowing the LP to be well out in the Atlantic by Wed 17th with the improvement in the weather arriving nearly a week earlier than in GFS

I don't buy this at all for what it's worth. The pattern is nothing like 2012, but I don't know how reliable Matt Hugo is with LRF projections.

Not at all thankfully (like all long range forecasts/forecasters)  Just don't call him out on it, otherwise he might leave twitter like he left these forums 

Not a bad set of models this morning, especially given where we were yesterday.

Even if we do see lots of northern blocking any wind from east will be a very warm one this year. That chart he posted shows a hot south easterly for the UK. 

I’m impressed by how deep this easterly looks to be.

A proper Beast setup with high pressure anchored over Scandinavia , I’m sure we’d be salivating if it was January. 

As it happens, the upper air temperatures look to get very warm.

An easterly breeze is the general theme for the mid range this morning but we cannot rule out is cloud and some rain coming in off the North Sea , there is also plenty upstream too moving round the southern flank of the high.

We need to be aware that despite all the oranges on the chart there is still the risk of some cloud and rain coming in from the east, especially as the flow looks to be quite strong. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_144_4.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

An interesting setup and definitely need to look at the more specific parameters rather than assume “warm and sunny” just from looking at the SLP charts. 

He's also not writing off the summer - he's confirmed this on Twitter.

The easterlies certainly looks impressive if verifies.

With the current chart output, I think there'll be some thundery outbreaks, especially in the S, both from direct land convection & medium level imports from Europe, the latter occurring in warm fronts. If the latter occurs, could turn very warm away from NE & E coasts.

Interesting times ahead.

When comparing yesterday's and today's 00z GEFS (London) I noticed the change to having many more rainfall spikes shown from midweek onwards.

That must be why it appears on wetterzentrale.de then...

OK, I'll get my coat...

Yep, on GFS at least there could be some large rainfall totals in the next couple of weeks, probably from home grown showers/storms. Looks good growing weather as well and none too cold.