Very warm spell followed by cooler and more changeable conditions. Possibly another warm up in early July. All looks very typical to me in the context of the background warming we have seen in recent years.

ECM best of the big guns again this morning keeps the heat to Saturday then builds pressure in the south later on. The is very much in line with its ensembles recently so hopefully it's onto something. As other output not so good this morning. 

Aah That’s the second run Ukmo will it get another feather in its hat? we can’t discard it 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

Yes certainly can't be discounted but the ECM Op, Para and Mean all much the same and all better than the UKMO. They have the weekend low arriving later, further north and have pressure rising soon after. GEM similar. 

The big fly in the ointment for next week and into July seems to be our old enemy the Greenland high. Not a huge one, but present in all runs (some more than others) and forcing the jet stream South.

But then again negative AO and sometimes even a Greenland high have been responsible for dry sunny weather during summer too. Got me thinking. If we take two major variables in our summer weather and combine them, I think we cover most types of summer weather:

• Positive vs negative NAO


• strong vs weak jet

1. Strong jet, negative NAO = 2012 style armageddon


2. strong jet, positive NAO = NW/SE split with ridging, 2009 style


3. weak jet, negative NAO = Easterlies, blocked patterns, May 2020 style


4. weak jet, positive NAO = settled and dry, summers 2018, 1989 etc

 as if to illustrate the point: look at this coming Sunday in GFS 06z vs 00z. The single big difference is Greenland high.

And

Yes, it’s a much better run. And it looks like the high may be starting to push in.

June is this part of the world has been generally very good. A couple of raining days. A few showery days. Generally warm to very warm. Sultry a times.

June 1997 was one of the worst June months I’ve ever seen. This hasn’t been the best June, but it’s been a good useful month.

I expect this run is reasonably close to the mark in comparison to the 6z and doubt it'll be an outlier. The reason is because of the general trend it has been showing. If anything, the 6z was more the outlier.

However, I doubt it will be quite as cool and unsettled as this run is showing and GEM seems to prolong the heat.

That said, the UKMO looks very wet at the end of the week, although warm with it. In fact the UKMO is almost 2007 wet. Would be very concerned if that verifies.

As expected, the 12z operational not reflective of the mean.

It doesn’t look that wet away from the NW in the UKMO 12z.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20200627-1200z.html 

It significantly more anticyclonic up here than the mean for quite a while.

Yes afraid it looks like you are, although not sure where or what you're looking at... perhaps the 6z still.

Reading on this site shows for 850s and 2m that the Ops is bottom of the pack at least, if not an outlier, from this Friday 26th until the 2nd July bar one day, the 28th.

Arpege looking toasty this afternoon 31c Wednesday. 34c Thursday.

It is indeed a significant pressure outlier, and at the bottom of the 850s as well, bringing the breakdown in first. A quick look at the postage stamps confirms how much of an outlier the 12z op is. No idea why there's such controversy on this? It's an outlier FFS! 

With the pressure being such an outlier it makes the 850s a little less significant anyway as there would be far more cloud and precipitation around to suppress temperatures.

Over Wales and the West Midlands for example there is a 7C difference between the op and the mean for the 2m temp. This negative agenda is getting more tiresome by the day.

Also lovely push in from the Azores on tonight's ECM days 7\8