GEM has something similar tonight.

ECM getting toasty again day 9. Believe Moomin believe!

The Azores High just isn't ridging in as strongly as it has done in recent summers. As Tin says above, the Greenland High is playing a forcing hand and the Azores just cannot come fully into play.

Until that changes, it will remain changeable/unsettled.

Indeed just the 42c for London on Saturday.

I would say the High over Central , Eastern Europe, North West Russia has as a big or greater impact as the Greenland High. This seems to cause a dip in the west to allow troughs to continually taking a sweep.

I do wish people  would stop engaging with this nonsense. 

What is the point of blocking somebodies posts if everybody else then quotes them?  So much time wasted. I for one am here to learn from genuine discussion based on evidence  and knowledge from you guys.    So many hijacked posts.  Pages and pages of it that immediately appear if there is an outlier blip.,!  Instantly! 

I am with you.  We are doing really well so far this summer and continue to do so.

When I was young, summers were nothing like they are regularly now.

Not quite sure why there's so much debate/arguing in here tonight, I guess it's the summer equivalent of the winter 3-4 days cold snap 

GFS ens shows 4 days or so of hot weather before a return to normal. Rain in short demand, particularly the further south and east you go, as per usual, although looks like they'll be some as we cool down after the hot snap at least.

ECM Op broadly similar, albeit with a greater chance of warmer air hanging on in the south. Not checked the ens because it's summer and degrees of warmth don't interest me The ECM t240 shows cooler air moving in from the west and I dare say the T264 chart would show it having displaced even the residual warmer than average air in the South East  - with LP not too far away I imagine there'd be some showers or rain around, biased to the North and West. 

Nothing exceptional in the outlook but on balance a decent enough set of runs for many and 4 days of v.warm to hot is pretty much nailed on the short term, with most people seeing at least some of this

Moomin has hijacked the data input 

A mixed bag from GFS - various pressure systems affecting the UK at their edges but nothing really dominant until much later on so could go in any direction. I pick out the current LP moving off and filling by Fri 26th; new LP to NW Sun 28th; HP across UK Sat 4th 

GEFS Very warm to Fri 26th dropping back to near normal after that in the S but cooler in the N judging by mean of runs, with lots of variation; best chance of rain in the S Mon 29th, in the N Sat 27th and bits and pieces  mostly in the N thereafter.

ECM - LP off Scotland on Sun 28th much deeper than GFS - after that yesterday's 12z runs (0z not put up at time of posting) suggesting that westerlies will set in

​I hope that does turn out to be the case as it would make for a significant improvement from the utterly dire and catastrophic horror show that June has been in this part of the country.

This week seeing a continuation of the dismal, depressing cloudfest. For some time I've been wondering if this will make it into the top 10 dullest Junes. This awful week is just the final straw and now I'm thinking top 5 dullest is highly probable. Will be lucky to scrape much more than 100 hours sun out of this complete write-off month with possibly no more than two days managing 9 hours sun.

Not just one of the worst summer months of all time but, like June 2007, June 2012 and July 2012, one of the worst months of any name 

Interesting on the 12z output so far.

There is almost certainty going to be a breakdown of some sorts on Saturday, but as it stands it looks like the low is going to flirt with NW Britain (giving everywhere a soaking for a time), with HP pressure slowly building back in from the south. The operational GFS shows this quite well but hints of it on the MetO too by T+144 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

In fact if the 12z GFS verifies I wouldn’t expect much of a breakdown to rain/unsettled weather in the SE at all. 

A good GFS 12z as many have alluded to, though it had a whiff of 'top end' to it and the ensembles have proven that suspicion.

Two things to note - the first is the slower breakdown to cooler 850s and the second is the mahoosive amount of FI scatter heading into July. No clear consensus is a bit of an understatement! 

Current Jetstream from SW fading and eventually resuming from the W/NW over the UK from Sat 26th for a week before moving further N and finally 1buckling to give a loop generating a cut-off low over Brittany Wed 8th

GFS - general drop in pressure over UK Fri 26th resolving into LP 985mb Western Isles Sun 28th and a period of mainly W-ly weather before ridge of HP running N-S across UK on Sat 4th. That topples and strengthens across the UK to end the run by Thu 9th though with suggestion of LP moving up from France.

GEFS - Hot spell ends Sat 27th after which cool for a few days before oscillating about the seasonal norm or somewhat below further N, Very little rain in the S, Scottish lowlands predicted a lot of rain Sat 27th, and fairly regularly thereafter there and N England.

ECM - much as GFS to end of run Fri 3rd

There was always the usual uncertainty in the longer range but the south still looks mostly dry and settled with decent temperatures.  

A British summer never has been about wall to wall sunshine and recurring heatwaves.