theweatheroutlook

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moomin75
23 June 2020 07:44:29


 


There was always the usual uncertainty in the longer range but the south still looks mostly dry and settled with decent temperatures.  


A British summer never has been about wall to wall sunshine and recurring heatwaves.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Except in 1976, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2018, I would agree.


And in fact, even in those remarkable summers there were brief unsettled moments.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Joe Bloggs
23 June 2020 07:47:57

All models have now backed down from a possible settling down and reverted to the very much more changeable and cool scenario.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Absolutely agree and the output is disappointing today given the promising signs yesterday. 


Still time for change though - we can be sure of a breakdown at the weekend but after that is anyone’s guess. 


For now it’s a short but potent heat wave. My WeatherPro app (uses the EPS) is showing 30C here tomorrow and Thursday now. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
overland
23 June 2020 07:54:48
There does seem to be a recent theme of the models improving through the day (if you like good weather) and then reverting to something less good in the 00z runs. Having said that it's not too bad, at least where I am, and it has to be said, it's been a very good Spring and Summer so far.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2020 08:06:26
Would be nice to get something consistently fairly warm and fairly settled, rather than brief intense heatwave then rain and wind.

Feels like the extremes are much hotter these days but the bits in between not so much. Like the weather has become one of those generally disappointing England batsmen who averages in the low 30s but occasionally flashes out a supreme match winning century.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Tim A
23 June 2020 08:14:02
After this hot spell it looks like standard summer weather, sunshine and some rain, best weather in sheltered south and east.

Looking back at at my records for June, nothing unremarkable, probably more 20c+ days than average but some cool and wet spells. Not horrific , fairly standard apart from maybe the ease in obtaining high temperatures this week.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
briggsy6
23 June 2020 08:38:24

The BBC 5 day forecast now bringing the breakdown forward to this Friday. Mind you, rain & thunderstorms and a temp of 32c in C.London seems a tad unlikely I would of thought. One for the rubbish bin.

Location: Uxbridge
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2020 08:48:39


The BBC 5 day forecast now bringing the breakdown forward to this Friday. Mind you, rain & thunderstorms and a temp of 32c in C.London seems a tad unlikely I would of thought. One for the rubbish bin.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


I don't know. I'm sure I've experienced in past years a rapid climb of temp to the 30s early in the day with thunderstorms moving in later on, quite big and spectacular ones in that setup. More worried this time that any showers and storms will move off to the NW as seems to be  currently forecasted - the garden desperately needs rain.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2020 08:48:40

There does seem to be a recent theme of the models improving through the day (if you like good weather) and then reverting to something less good in the 00z runs. Having said that it's not too bad, at least where I am, and it has to be said, it's been a very good Spring and Summer so far.

Originally Posted by: overland 


 


Yes I've noticed this the 12z seem to have more high pressure. Let's hope it happens today as it's a poor set of 0z it has to be said.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2020 09:03:57


Yes I've noticed this the 12z seem to have more high pressure. Let's hope it happens today as it's a poor set of 0z it has to be said.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I see the models as a random walk of upgrades and downgrades. To get a good spell you need a long run of upgrades outnumbering downgrades. To get an extension to a heatwave you need 2 or 3 upgrades that marginally move the breakdown. 


Feels like the ups and downs are fairly balanced at the moment. Need a bit of a run of upgrades over the next couple of days to shove that Atlantic low towards Iceland where it belongs. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
23 June 2020 09:47:52

Would be nice to get something consistently fairly warm and fairly settled, rather than brief intense heatwave then rain and wind.

Feels like the extremes are much hotter these days but the bits in between not so much. Like the weather has become one of those generally disappointing England batsmen who averages in the low 30s but occasionally flashes out a supreme match winning century.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


A Graham Hick rather than Sir Geoffrey Boycott. I wonder whether we'll ever get a Kevin Pietersen at the crease for a number of consecutive seasons, including winter. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Rob K
23 June 2020 10:22:10
6Z GFS already showing more ridging across the south by Monday.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Phil G
23 June 2020 11:21:16
Still a long way out yet, but GFS suggesting some blistering conditions over Spain and southern France.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_300_2.png 
Hungry Tiger
23 June 2020 12:48:37

Still a long way out yet, but GFS suggesting some blistering conditions over Spain and southern France.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_300_2.png

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


 


45+ there - That will be  coming in our direction probably a week or so later.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


fairweather
23 June 2020 12:54:54


 


 


45+ there - That will be  coming in our direction probably a week or so later.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Fingers crossed it doesn't and we get some nice storms instead 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
TimS
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  • Advanced Member
23 June 2020 13:16:53

 


45+ there - That will be  coming in our direction probably a week or so later.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


So what’s it to be? Moomin’s cold washout July, or Hungary’s 45C record heatwave?

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Saint Snow
23 June 2020 13:24:31


 


So what’s it to be? Moomin’s cold washout July, or Hungary’s 45C record heatwave?


Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


I'm going for the odds-on favourite called "Somewhere In Between"


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
23 June 2020 13:46:03


 


 


I'm going for the odds-on favourite called "Somewhere In Between"


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Probably right but with that sort of heat down to our south in early July it would surely be odds on to give us proper blast of the hairdryer at some point.


We've already exceeded forecasts with 27C reached here and 27.6C at Charlwood.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2020 13:47:42


I'm going for the odds-on favourite called "Somewhere In Between"


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Brave choice.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Saint Snow
23 June 2020 13:55:09


 


Brave choice.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
23 June 2020 13:56:21


 


Probably right but with that sort of heat down to our south in early July it would surely be odds on to give us proper blast of the hairdryer at some point.


We've already exceeded forecasts with 27C reached here and 27.6C at Charlwood.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Nonetheless, I still think 45c is going to be a tad beyond us...


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
23 June 2020 14:22:31


 


 


Nonetheless, I still think 45c is going to be a tad beyond us...


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I don't think HT was suggesting that we would get 45C, just saying that it was showing 45C in Spain and that airmass would be heading our way 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
23 June 2020 16:13:11
When the UKMO model starts showing an Azores ridge, I get a little bit more interested. The 12z does just that. There is a fairly potent little low in the mid Atlantic too which could sweep the ridge away, but a much more promising 12z for sure.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2020 16:16:24

When the UKMO model starts showing an Azores ridge, I get a little bit more interested. The 12z does just that. There is a fairly potent little low in the mid Atlantic too which could sweep the ridge away, but a much more promising 12z for sure.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


Yes the higher pressure 12z at it again.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
23 June 2020 17:05:11

When the UKMO model starts showing an Azores ridge, I get a little bit more interested. The 12z does just that. There is a fairly potent little low in the mid Atlantic too which could sweep the ridge away, but a much more promising 12z for sure.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


As an aside, I don't get anything like as excited about an Azores ridge as I do about a high settling just to our north or our east.


The pressure pattern of May & June 2018 was, for me, perfect, with an easterly  or south-easterly breeze.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
23 June 2020 21:39:25


 


So what’s it to be? Moomin’s cold washout July, or Hungary’s 45C record heatwave?


Originally Posted by: TimS 

I doubt Hungary would ever get as hot as that!?

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