I suggest we name this one Moomin. 

The above post has stolen my thunder! Nevertheless

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 shows v. warm week 1, average week 2; rain in the N week 1, in the S week 2

GFS: current HP to E giving warm S-ly flow but trough develops Fri 26th across UK; then a rather muddled situation with small depressions linked to main LP centre over Norway until that centre is over S England Fri 3rd (not all GFS charts show it as dramatic as above). HP then re-establishes from Azores Wed 8th = looking a bit thundery from S Fri 10th.

GEFS: Back to average temps by the weekend - mean is close to norm but op & controll definitely cool. Rain here and there, rather more in Scotland esp around the 27th.

ECM: keeps the main LP centre in the N Atlantic and that storm on Fri 3rd slips into the N Sea without passing over the UK

Yes, that would spell trouble for those southerners who don't want any rain. If you look at the above chart though, you will see that Scotland misses out out on that action altogether and is left with nothing other than probably, yet more easterly muck coming in from off the North Sea.

However, that is a chart which is typical of a southerly tracking jet stream these days. I can remember years ago (and we don't have to go back all that many years) when these southerly tracking lows would at the very least, usually clip the southern half of Scotland which means here in Edinburgh, we would also tend to join in with those southerners in getting the wet weather from that.

In winter, that in turn would usually lead to us getting more in the way of snowfall from these systems. Nowadays though, it is a completely different story with those lows tending to be further south so that we usually end up missing out on the action from them, altogether. Southerners might often complain about a lack of rainfall for their gardens, especially during the summer months.

Whenever we come to actually needing some rainfall though, I would say that we often have a much harder time in getting that, than those in the south of England who can at least rely on a plentiful supply of rain either from those southerly tracking lows, or from thunderstorms coming up from France at the end of a summer heatwave.

Here in Scotland, we often miss out on both of those things and even in a more westerly regime, we often find that most the rain is in the west of Scotland with very little of it reaching here in SE Scotland. That can be very frustrating on those occasions where we actually need to be getting some rain because that rain will often be very close by to our west on those occasions, with some quite high rainfall totals being recorded there on those occasions.

Interesting output this morning the ECM Op has another very warm spell from 144h to 192h. The ECM Para goes even more extreme and has another heatwave starting at 144h. GEM also very warm late on. Next week could throw up a last minute surprise yet.

It definitely looks more unsettled from this weekend onwards with the best of the weather further south generally as high pressure ridges in on occasion without actually establishing. Changeable will be good gardening weather with some usability in there - no washout forecast.

Cool temperatures suggests below average and I do not see that in the current output. Under any cloud and rain temps will be suppressed but when we see a drier, more settled day in between the showers it'll become warm enough. Around the June/July average I think. Looking at the ECM though it could be above average at times if we deflect the lows a little further north.

Finally, there is still significant scatter in the GEFS meaning any long-term call heading deeper into July is futile at this stage.

ECM at 144 looking toasty and settled with 30c (86f) being achieved again in the SE.

If this is cool and unsettled goodness knows what real unsettled weather would look like.

Yet on Gavin P.'s latest video during yesterday, the 10 day precipitation anomaly plot from the GFS was showing it to be drier than average here with any wetter than average conditions being confined to western Scotland. That wouldn't be possible if they were forecasting the sort of rainfall amounts which you are suggesting, as that would clearly make it a lot wetter than average here.

However, I will assume in this case, that the chart which I saw came from a different GFS run from the one which provided your suggested figures which is indeed, possible given the manner in which the models tend to flip-flop all the place these days (with the GFS tending to be the worst offender in that regard).

This means that even if the GFS have forecast around 40mm to 50mm for here as you have suggested, that will no doubt, probably be downgraded closer to the time frame in question, anyway.

Réminiscence here, rather than pattern match (the pattern is different) but this takes me back to the exact time of year back in 1995.

The June heatwave peaked at 33C at Barbourne on the 30th. After that we broke down - fairly dryly in the South - into a Westerly regime. I remember saying “that’s it for summer”. We had a NW/SE split for a few days. By the end of the next week we were at 28C in the S and the next - very humid - mini plume was starting.

Umm, not really. 

Another misleading post?

Looks like a standard NW/SE split again – with the better of the weather the nearer one is to the white cliffs of Dover.

All in all, standard British summer fare – better in the South East, wetter up north. 

Situation normal. 

But you're forgetting that Witney has moved to somewhere in the vicinity of St Kilda 

Agreed that after a hot couple of days it looks like a return to normalish summer weather, probably mostly dry down here with the odd wet day, and the chance of some warm spells. I don't see either a washout or a heatwave on the cards just yet, but either is still possible of course.

Was a great summer, personally for me as well as I had just left school and got my first car. I remember going to the WW2 parade in London in August 

Now, how long it will last this time is anyone's guess, but looking at the propensity for the Azores high to try to ridge in only to be forced back, suggests to me that a changeable and possibly quite unsettled July *could* be on the cards.

I am hoping the opposite, but I fear not.

People moan about this forum being too Southern England/London centric.

May I tentatively suggest that it has become too Moomin centric.

Moomin this, Moomin that. Moomin’s summer forecast, Moomin’s predictions, whether or not Moomin was right all along, whether or not Moomin will be wrong. 

We are absolutely OBSESSED with Moomin. The Moomin Output Discussion thread. 

It’s all good entertainment though isn’t it. More predictable than the models at least. 

And now I’ve just made it worse. 😂😂😂😀😀😀

Although I’m not convinced those are Moomins in the bottom right of the image. 

Same age as me then. Born 1976.

I will never forget 1995. The year the landscape went to dust.

By mid August it looked like we were living in Southern Spain.