Model Output Discussion 21/06/20 08:11 >>>>· Page 8

ozone_aurora
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 09:50:37

Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

Originally Posted by: moomin75

I'm very sorry to hear this. You have my sincere sympathy.

picturesareme
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 10:55:38

#177

Holy crap its so close. Wonder what the all time record 850hpa temp is for July. Must be something like -3C or -4C.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

I pretty sure you were saying the same thing last year when the -5C was crossing close to shetland island, and posters produced quite a number of years when it had happened.

picturesareme
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 10:59:23

#178

To my knowledge (please correct if you can give an example). The -5 850hpa isotherm has never touched any part of the UK in July

Probably won't this time but christ its unusual to see air that cold a few hundred miles away.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Yep 3rd July last year

July 1993 was a cold one with widespread -1C to -4C across large parts of northern UK with the -5C just of the west coast of Scotland

Edited by user 26 June 2020 11:31:09 | Reason: Not specified

TimS
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 11:24:58

#179

Condolences to Moomin on his sad news.

GEFS 06z continues to show an inflection point in 850s around the 6th July, with SLP rising a day or so before then and staying around 1020hPa.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

soperman
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 11:31:47

#180

Deepest sympathies Moomin and I am sure the sun will be shining for your Aunt.

JACKO4EVER
Guest

26 June 2020 11:49:51

#181

Mooms I logged on looking for a post of doom only to find your sad news.
Chin up brother, come rain or shine I’m sure Aunt will be sadly missed.
Back to the weather and the cooler more unsettled spell might not be as long lived as some first feared. More runs needed

Chelsea
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 13:02:08

#182

[quote=moomin75;1229340]

Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

So sorry for your loss Moomin

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

26 June 2020 13:05:46

#183

Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Sorry to hear that Moomin.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Quantum
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 14:30:43

#184

Nothing short of spectacular if that -5C line manages to get to shetland.

The coldest July chart I have ever seen.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Quantum
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 14:32:57

#185

UKMO is insane. The coldest uppers in the entire NHem.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

picturesareme
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 14:50:16

#186

Nothing short of spectacular if that -5C line manages to get to shetland.

The coldest July chart I have ever seen.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Nothing spectacular as was pointed out on the previous page.

TimS
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 14:54:30

#187

It’s actually pretty common for the coldest upper air to be in the North Atlantic or (usually) North Pacific at this time of year, when there is high pressure over the arctic.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Quantum
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 16:02:08

#188

Nothing spectacular as was pointed out on the previous page.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

July daytime record is 7.5C. This is the exact setup that could break that record. Incredibly cold upper air and rain.

If you can find a colder chart in the archives I'd be interested to see it.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Quantum
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 16:08:16

#189

It’s actually pretty common for the coldest upper air to be in the North Atlantic or (usually) North Pacific at this time of year, when there is high pressure over the arctic.

Originally Posted by: TimS

But -5C at the 850hpa level that close to the UK is unheard of.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

TimS
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 16:18:40

#190

More signs on GFS and ICON of a realignment and ridging towards the end of next week, though somewhat different evolution because of different NAO and Greenland high outcomes.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

picturesareme
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 16:49:08

#191

July daytime record is 7.5C. This is the exact setup that could break that record. Incredibly cold upper air and rain.

If you can find a colder chart in the archives I'd be interested to see it.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

i did post one to your earlier reply, and it qqs3 for last year when i pretty sure also posting record low July 850's lol

picturesareme
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 16:52:01

#192

Yep 3rd July last year

July 1993 was a cold one with widespread -1C to -4C across large parts of northern UK with the -5C just of the west coast of Scotland

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

For the benefit of Quantum who is incapable going back a page. Click on image for larger view but that is almost a carbon copy of the chart you are posting this year but from last year - when i believe it was you who was claiming it was record breaking back in 2019.

That is -5C 850hpa just north of shetland.

picturesareme
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 16:54:09

#193

July 1993

Also July 2015 had a small pocket of -5C

SJV
Guest

26 June 2020 17:44:38

#194

Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

Originally Posted by: moomin75

So sorry to hear of your news, Moomin. Thoughts with you and your family. Take care.

TimS
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 18:04:25

#195

The return to warmth starting to become more pronounced now. GFS op was a wet and cool outlier, and it wasn’t bad.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 18:54:27

#196

Hope you’re ok Moomin. Sorry to hear your sad news.

Some hope within the 12z output that the unsettled spell may not lost TOO long with ridging from the south. GFS op most promising out of the lot I think.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

TimS
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 19:13:03

#197

Worried for a minute there with ECM but it’s back where it needs to be by next weekend.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

TimS
Advanced Member

26 June 2020 20:37:13

#198

This evening’s ECM average at 240 has progressed from “average summer” in the Usborne school atlas to “Fig.2: Example of Azores high influence in summer” in Barry & Chorley.