theweatheroutlook

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moomin75
25 June 2020 12:48:14


 


Yes that’s what I thought too. A trend toward settled and warm after a cooler first week in July. 
Moom’s monthly write-off about to go moobs-up methinks. 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I respectfully disagree completely. I don't think there are any signs of a trend towards a settled warm up...except in deep FI.


I am happy as usual to be proved wrong, and I hope that I am.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
25 June 2020 13:59:33


 


It’s the positioning of the Icelandic low that’s encouraging, as well as the collapsing of the big high pressure over NE Canada. Pressure sinking around Greenland. That means once any lows over Europe fade away there’s more space for a ridge to build.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes agreed the big picture looks better. Just commenting on the small-scale pattern which still had a low stuck over the UK but as you say once that filled it would be a better picture all round.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
25 June 2020 14:17:28


 


Yes that’s what I thought too. A trend toward settled and warm after a cooler first week in July. 
Moom’s monthly write-off about to go moobs-up methinks. 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


 


The goal this summer is to be writing off October on 28 September. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
25 June 2020 14:18:46


I respectfully disagree completely. I don't think there are any signs of a trend towards a settled warm up...except in deep FI.


I am happy as usual to be proved wrong, and I hope that I am.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


Do you accept you have already been proved wrong by writing off June?


 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
25 June 2020 14:34:20


 


 


Do you accept you have already been proved wrong by writing off June?


 



Originally Posted by: Downpour 

I have on several occasions yes, particularly on temperature, but not so much on precipitation. As I say, I am happy to be criticised when its deserved.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
25 June 2020 16:39:34


I have on several occasions yes, particularly on temperature, but not so much on precipitation. As I say, I am happy to be criticised when its deserved.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I'm not aware of any areas that have had a notably wet June this year, at least not anything that has been newsworthy?


I may be mistaken here, but the way I was reading your thoughts for June three or so weeks ago, I was assuming that you were expecting another June 2007/June 2012 type horror show. While I don't know what this month has been like in your neck of the woods, I would say that while not perfect, this June has been a slightly better month overall where I live than June 2019 was.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
25 June 2020 16:40:56


 


I'm not aware of any areas that have had a notably wet June this year, at least not anything that has been newsworthy?


I may be mistaken here, but the way I was reading your thoughts for June three or so weeks ago, I was assuming that you were expecting another June 2007/June 2012 type horror show. While I don't know what this month has been like in your nexk of the woods, I would say that while not perfect, this June has been a slightly better month overall where I live than June 2019.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I was anticipating a 2007 style June yes.


I think that it has been delayed, but looking at the models for July, I fear it was just a stay of execution.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
25 June 2020 16:43:03


I was anticipating a 2007 style June yes.


I think that it has been delayed, but looking at the models for July, I fear it was just a stay of execution.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


We shall see, but for me it is unwise at the best of times to be placing any faith in charts for far-off FI and thinking they are likely to verify, irrespective of what they show.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
25 June 2020 17:04:38
More encouraging signs on ICON, GFS and GEM this evening of a pivoting in the jet towards the end of next week that promises improvement for mid July. I hope this continues.

The basic change is that currently - even this week - the Atlantic is on the trough side of a huge ridge trough pattern with a mega ridge over North America bringing hot weather to Arctic Canada, and another over Eastern Siberia. The smaller eddies that give us our daily weather are little ridges and troughs within a bigger trough, especially next week.

By end of next week even though we still have low pressure over Europe, the Atlantic jet has realigned and the North American ridge has collapsed. It allows pressure to drop around Greenland so that any incursion of the AH here can get boosted by SW flow across the Atlantic rather than beaten down by NW flow.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Downpour
25 June 2020 18:54:18


I have on several occasions yes, particularly on temperature, but not so much on precipitation. As I say, I am happy to be criticised when its deserved.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


A few downpours doesn’t a “write-off” make though does it? 


I suspect 85-90% of people think June has been a good summery month, not a write off, as you infamously predicted. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
25 June 2020 19:07:48


 


A few downpours doesn’t a “write-off” make though does it? 


I suspect 85-90% of people think June has been a good summery month, not a write off, as you infamously predicted. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Look, I've said countless times, I was wrong.....We will see how July pans out. I am "marginally" more encouraged by the 12z's, but they are still pretty dicey at the moment, and don't expect anything summery for AT LEAST the first half. Time will tell.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jason H
25 June 2020 20:54:38


 


A few downpours doesn’t a “write-off” make though does it? 


I suspect 85-90% of people think June has been a good summery month, not a write off, as you infamously predicted. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Yup. Been a superb month for us in the South East. Got a lovely tan from just walking about. Nowhere near a write-off. Since lockdown, the weather has been superb. And looking at the models, I still cannot see a write-off in sight. Yes, rain on a few days, but perfectly acceptable UK summer weather.

I feel great! so maybe I might just
Search for a 9 to 5, if I strive
Then maybe I'll stay alive
Bexleyheath, Kent.
sunny coast
25 June 2020 22:35:04


 


Yup. Been a superb month for us in the South East. Got a lovely tan from just walking about. Nowhere near a write-off. Since lockdown, the weather has been superb. And looking at the models, I still cannot see a write-off in sight. Yes, rain on a few days, but perfectly acceptable UK summer weather.


Originally Posted by: Jason H 

  indeed we have had approx 40mm rain since 22 March   and incredible amounts of sunshine. The best 3 month spell I can remember altho 2018 was similar 

moomin75
25 June 2020 22:35:29

Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Hungry Tiger
26 June 2020 06:23:55


Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


My sincerest sympathies moomin.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
26 June 2020 06:24:32

Any ideas anyone when a new settled warm spell is on the way.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2020 06:46:40


Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Sorry to hear that my sympathies Moomin.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2020 06:48:27


Any ideas anyone when a new settled warm spell is on the way.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


 


July 6th. Gefs look like they're sniffing something around then. Something like the control run or p15.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2020 07:05:31

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 cool NW, comfortably warm SE for a couple of weeks. rain fairly general week 1, drier in SE later


GFS: LP Sub 28th/Mon 29th over Scotland, decaying with some N-ly air entrained. New large LP in Atlantic Sat 4th moving off to Faeroes Sat 11th and filling, some warm air entrained at first esp in SE but later cooler stuff coming down the back edge. W-ly zonal stuff at end of run.


GEFS: In the S becoming cool and dry until Mon 29th; then average and damp  until Sat 4th after which a lot of scatter, mean close to norm but o and control going in opposite direction and one outlier 13C above norm! Fairly dry for this period. Scotland a bit below average temp to the 4th then like the S, bits and pieces of rain throughout.


ECM: Much less active Atlantic from Sat 4th, in fact major new area of HP on Mon 6th covering UK and with warm air to boot.


FAX keeps LP more active over UK for several days with secondaries still forming on Tue 30th


Not a lot of agreement this morning.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Heavy Weather 2013
26 June 2020 07:20:16
Sorry to hear about your loss moomin.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2020 07:54:00


Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


In the absence of an 'upvote' function on this software to show my endorsement of what others have expressed, I would like to add my expression of sympathy and understanding. The death of someone that close, and most of all a mother, or someone who has acted like one, is a very deep emotional trauma, and one that will take quite a time to get over.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2020 08:33:38


Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

So sorry to hear that Moomin!  You may be a pessimist with the weather but you’re a good and gentle soul! x

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Saint Snow
26 June 2020 09:29:31


Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


Really sorry to hear this, Moomin. I know we bag you for being a pessimist, but you're a treasured member of the TWO community. Hope you're OK.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
26 June 2020 09:47:02

To my knowledge (please correct if you can give an example). The -5 850hpa isotherm has never touched any part of the UK in July



Probably won't this time but christ its unusual to see air that cold a few hundred miles away.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
26 June 2020 09:48:44


Holy crap its so close. Wonder what the all time record 850hpa temp is for July. Must be something like -3C or -4C.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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