Yes the 6th July improving signal fading somewhat this morning.

These ensembles paint a slightly better picture for Londonat least. 06 July onwards looks better. Naturally lots of water under the bridge first of all.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Yes hopefully just some dodgy Ops. 6th July still quite along way away though so nothing guaranteed.

The ECM mean looks more promising this morning.

Jetstream running quite strongly across S of UK for the time of year to Sat 4th. then shifting N to Scotland until Thu 9th before breaking up into loops and fragments, one of which running from SW on Mon 13th might bring up some warmth from the S - a long way off.

GFS 6z: LP over N Scotland pulling away to Norway by Wed 1st and leaving some N/NE-lies in its wake; new LP 975mb well established mid-Atlantic Fri 3rd; that turns into a disorganised mainly zonal weather with source of air from SW to Wed 8th before Azores P taes control Sat 11th, mainly over Scotland with continental LP for the S

GEFS: temp below normal for last few days of June, then mean is back to normal  - slight dip in S around Sat 4th, better around Tue 7th but little agreement further out. Rain in Scotland from now onwards,  in S most likely for a week beginning Tue 30th, drier later. in both areas

ECM 0z: Much the same as GFS above

Azores high pushing in nicely day 8 on the GFS 6z . Need to get this to day 5 to have faith though.

But crucially none of those events actually had the -5C touch the UK. I mean neither will this one probably, but it is no doubt exceptional and if it does touch record breaking.

The inflection point seems to be the 4th, for both SLP and temperature. 

Tomorrow could give us another crack at the all time renewable energy record, so long as demand is high enough.

Windy in the North, West and North Sea where most of the wind turbines are (though not quite as windy as I’d ideally like in the Hebrides), and sunny at midday in the South where most of the solar panels are. 

The GFS evolution is in the minority.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif Open water now showing along Arctic coasts esp Sibeia

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 NW/SE split for the next fortnight, both areas drier and a little warmer in week 2 but no heat wave. 

FAX looking disturbed with current LP filling and being replaced by another from Atlantic at end of week, but not before a final small disturbance runs along the Channel on Tue/Wed. 

GFS shows procession of depressions - Scotland 990mb Mon 29th moving to Baltic, mid-Atlantic 980mb Fri 3rd moving to N Norway, mid-Atlantic 1000mb Mon 6th moving past Faeroes,  before the model experiments with HP close to UK Wed 8th, even that is affected by continental LP in SE Fri 10th.

GEFS temps back to normal Wed 1st, and mean of runs close to seasonal average (a little below in the N) through to Tue 14th but with enough scatter to allow any form of cherry-picking from Sun 5th onwards. Best chance of rain in S around Sun 5th bits on either side of that esp later on; in the N the rain appears a little earlier and is more persistent in Scotland.

ECM brings the LP forecast on GFS for Fri 3rd across the UK, not the Faeroes, but the LP on Mon 6th is there and the swift recovery with HP over the UK shown on yesterday's 12z may not now happen (will need editing as 12z chart for Tue 7th still showing at time of posting) EDIT - well, the HP is sort of there Tue/Wed 7th/8th but only rather timorously affecting the S and even then Iberian low is developing strongly

The rise in pressure seems to be there in the GEFS still, just not the net rise in 850s. I looked at the postage stamps for 24hrs and I think the reason is there are a number of perturbations with a ridge to the West and NW flow. May well change again.

Good ECM this morning especially the mean above 10c 850s at day 6 and stays there. 

Kieren, I am so very sorry to read about your sad news; I've only just read this for the first time a few minutes ago. Deepest condolences to you and the rest of your family at this time.

GFS this morning still has that train of depressions, if anything closer to the UK and with more of a trailing trough across the S as each in turn moves off (current 990mb Scotland, trail to Wed 1st; next 990 mb Hebrides Fri 3rd, trail to Sun 5th;  995mb Hebrides Tue 7th; lastly 1000mb Hebrides Fri 10th). HP finally re-establishes itself ridged from Azores to N Britain Wed 15th but not without some LP wandering around Brittany and down to Spain.

GEFS temps in S rising to seasonal norm to Fri 3rd July then a warm spell for 3-4  days (though the Op run disagrees and throws extra rain in as well) and then, with the usual scatter, temps slightly below norm out to Wed 15th. Bits and pieces of rain mostly Wed 1st in S (though MetO brings it in on Tue) and a cluster Mon/Wed 13/15th. Scotland similar though cooler wrt norm throughout (i.e. for 'warm' read 'average' and 'slightly below' read 'definitely below'; & rain in small amounts throughout.

ECM as GFS to the 7th when it takes that LP further north and then brings in the Azores high much earlier, well established by Thu 9th