Last night Tomasz Schafernaker was hinting at a warm up around the 6th of July.

yet again GFS06z is a poor run, like its predecessor.

But also yet again it’s a low pressure outlier;

Wow

Similar to the 06z GFS op run

Nice 12z UKMO hot by 144h 14c 850s in South.

Yep, GFS goes downhill again. Worse even than 06z, though less wet. Either yet another outlier or a trend setter.

EDIT: not an outlier on GEFS. Looking pretty abysmal.

Not sure I agree that the low is sinking on the UKMO looks like it's a good way north.

Decent GEM as well with high pressure never far from the south and 29c n Sunday

I'm pretty much ignoring the GFS at the moment is been so poor. GEFS are more useful but still poor compared to the ECM ensembles

Reason I say that is the shape of the isobars. Assuming the low moves Eastwards, to avoid introducing Northwesterlies as it passes it has to travel about NNE from where it is at 144 hours. If it goes due East, or even NE, then winds will turn cooler, the high will be squashed further and retreat back towards the Azores, at least for a bit.

Similar to GEM then which still ends up a good run for the southern third of the UK.

Looks better for the south to my eye, very little in the way of rain again for the weekend, if rather cool at times. 

Unusual to see 850s below par for so much of the run. I know they're not the be all and end all at this time of year.

This is a seriously long period of below average 850s on GEFS - over half the run:

Does seem to very out of synch with the other models. Big contrast from only a couple of days ago too. I suspect the overall pattern is not dissimilar but the lows are just that bit further south on GFS.

Wetter than recent ENS too.

It’s been the formless nag so far this summer. It doesn’t have much support from the other models but we shall see I guess. It tends to be an unsettled ramper, at least this summer.

Very unusual to see this in the current era.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&chartname=21_meantemp5dayeuhd_anom&chartregion=euranom&p=21&charttag=5%20day%20temp%20anomaly

GEFS 12z mean anomaly temperature charts for days 0 to 5, 5 to 10 and 10 to 15 all going below average again this evening https://t.co/U9pWaI8UuC pic.twitter.com/1VIThldBx4

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) June 29, 2020

GFS really keen on a Greenland high to mess up our July.

ECM also going for a very warm weekend high 20s in the SE.

Does look decent. Output is showing 22C on Friday and Saturday, 25C on Sunday then back to 22C on Mon. Probably be one or two degrees warmer than that. 

Bit more mediocre and very chilly later in the run but not wet, at least in the East.

There’s a notional stand-off between ECM and GFS but it’s largely because the latter has the low a few hundred miles south, a common pattern this summer. ECM is the form horse so fingers crossed. 

Probably usable weather in the SE quadrant but we shall see. 

Jetstream in position to keep things unsettled and push depressions across the UK - running first across the S, then the N (Fri 3rd) and back to the centre (Mon 6th), finally weakening by Fri 10th but with a sting in the tail as a local N-S branch appears on Wed 15th. But the BBC outlook contradicted this, showing (like yesterday's ECM) a broad ridge of high pressure across the UK by next Tue 7th. In the meantime connoisseurs of fronts should look at the FAX charts, a real mess for this week, scarcely anywhere in the UK not seeing a front at some time or other.

For the big players, GFS shows the current LP off to N Finland Thu 2nd leaving some quite cold air behind.  The next LP is more of a broad trough with zonal flow across the UK but resolves itself into a definite centre in the northern N Sea Mon 6th. A ridge of HP across the UK on Wed 8th looks promising but fails to fulfil its potential, hanging back in the Atlantic with generally slack pressure gradients over the UK for the following week. To my eye, the later charts look unstable and likely to change as we get closer.

GEFS much like yesterday - for the S cool at first, burst of warmth 4/6th Sat/Mon, sudden drop to about 5C below norm and slow recovery of the mean of runs to norm by 15th though both op and control stay cold. Bits and pieces of rain, never very much.In Scotland an N England, that 'burst of warmth' only just makes it above the norm and there's more rain around with a few runs showing big totals later on

ECM agrees with GFS to Wed 8th but that HP is even less promising with a well-defined depression off NW Scotland the following day pushing the HP off to the south.