GFS 12z looking on the up, lovely link of Azores High with Scandi High, Fingers crossed & touching wood

Yes, well spotted.

Theres more snowflakes in this thread than were seen in many a winter.  Much overwrought, limp-wristed handwringing.

The Dark Lord Moomin has cast a spell over their hearts methinks.

🧐

Have a word with yourself. 

So dry apart from the wet bits then? 

GFS - depressions running across Scotland now and Wed 8th (BBC last night added one on Sat 11th for good measure) then ridge of HP SW to NE slowly establishes by Mon 13th and persists though looking weak at times e.g. Sat 18th S England affected by continental LP

GEFS - Cool generally to Wed 15th by when back to norm or a little above (brief bump of warmth ca Tue 7th). Rain likely around Sat 11th in the S, bits and pieces after that.Scotland and N England show rain intermittently throughout with some anomalously big spikes for Newcastle.

ECM - like GFS though LP on Wed 8th slower to move away and spends time over the N Sea before the ridge of HP comes in

GEFS temps cooler than I'd expect from the synoptics after Mon 13th

This morning’s GEFS:

Still significantly below average for the majority of the run, though not too wet for London at least.

The flip side of this is a very strong and persistent high pressure over the central Arctic basin, and a classic Arctic dipole anomaly which should lead to very rapid ice melt. Same pattern took hold in the big melt years of 2007, 2011 and 2012.

Sorry you don’t like our tone.

Just so us limp wristed “snowflakes” know how to behave in this strong manly heterosexual forum, when the model outlook is cold, is the appropriate patriotic response:

a. to pretend it isn’t

b. to forget the cold temperatures and focus on anything positive like a bit of high pressure 240 hours out

c. to express pleasure at the prospect of more cool refreshing weather?

Nothing wrong with a bit of banter Tim.

My view is that its easy to get lulled into an expectation of dry settled weather after the April +May 2020 experience and the second half of June was pretty decent for the some. This then colours perceptions  of the British weather which is generally extremely varied and unsettled.  "3 fine days and a thunderstorm".

I think the weather is looking pretty typical and I'm reasonably confident that the second half of July will bring one of our more settled interludes within the varied smorgasboard our maritime mid latitude climate will always deliver.

I honestly hope you are right. I don’t recall the last time we saw such consistently cool ensemble averages though. A large scale pattern change is needed, and that almost certainly means a reversal of the current negative AO.

Yes the bottom of the three images says more than any words

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

Thanks for getting back to me Tim.

I think we need to buckle down for around 8-9 days of cool weather with unsettled conditions and often windier than we are used to.  Im confident that this will then be replaced by HP and things will be significantly better in the west in particular.

Hi all. I am back. Just wanted to say thank you for all the lovely messages following the death of my Auntie. They were so very appreciated at a time when I needed some support. You guys are all amazing - even the ones that moan at me 😊

Anyway, looking at the models, not a lot has changed since my last visit. Cool and changeable at the moment, but some hope of a gradual settling down in the 7-10 day time frame.

With cricket returning now (yay 😊😊🙌) I will be paying more than passing attention to the models as with every wet day, the truncated season gets more affected....But I hope that the longer term trend see a more settled, if cooler than average outlook.

I would say all model runs at least heading in the right direction for High pressure and settled weather, with some warmth hopefully.

lets see if this trend continues

After this morning, that is two days out of 15 with any appreciable rain so not bad really. The general picture is pretty settled apart from one blip at the end of the week is what I meant. 

PS Good to see you back Moomin!

I know, I was just teasing. 

It looks a less settled for the northern half of the UK unfortunately, but I do think it looks better after the coming week (with all the usual caveats associated with the time scale).

Good to see you back Moomin.

Welcome back Moomin, very sorry to hear your news. Yes, Test starts Wednesday - let’s take solace in that. 

Indeed, although it’s a shame that the wetter days always seem to be Fridays and Saturdays - exactly the days one doesn’t want to be wetter. But, as you say, trending better medium term.

More of the same really. Mediocre. The sort of weather where you can keep the garden tidy but don't want to sit outside in it. Not my cup of tea but interesting nonetheless given recent blowtorch summers.

NHC says a tropical storm likely in atlantic moving our way

On the TWO view I thought they looked slightly worse TBH. 

Less protracted cool spell. Mean is close to seasonal average for most of the run. But a couple of quite wet clusters.

That’s what we need. Something to disrupt the pattern. Particularly if it takes that track and erodes the AH from the South West. Not enough low pressure in SE USA this summer so far.