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Brian Gaze
08 July 2020 07:28:47


 


I’m more central southern England and it has been pretty dry here too. Even though it rained on Sunday morning, by the afternoon the tomato plants were wilting again. The soil is still very dusty. 

Only 9mm here so far in July after 36mm in June and 1mm in May. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Here we've had:


June 62mm


July 16mm


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
08 July 2020 07:30:07

GFS and to an extent ECM have been flattening the upcoming ridge progressively over a few runs as the time nears. This morning GFS is going back to a zonal train of depressions once the weekend ridge moves away.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes I flagged this up to the Met guy on Twitter last night. I've got less confidence than they apparently do about next week. Having said that it will almost certainly be a significantly better in the south than at the present time.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Downpour
08 July 2020 07:49:57


 


Yes I flagged this up to the Met guy on Twitter last night. I've got less confidence than they apparently do about next week. Having said that it will almost certainly be a significantly better in the south than at the present time.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


NW/SE split is the form horse, outlook looks pretty decent down here.


Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
08 July 2020 07:51:04


 


NW/SE split is the form horse, outlook looks pretty decent down here.


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


You should have mentioned that before. 


Rob K
08 July 2020 07:51:31


 


Yes I flagged this up to the Met guy on Twitter last night. I've got less confidence than they apparently do about next week. Having said that it will almost certainly be a significantly better in the south than at the present time.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The GEFS last night were fairly unanimous in a steady rise in 850s and very little rain for the south. This morning there’s a big split from the 15th with a cluster going much more unsettled again. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
08 July 2020 08:39:35


 


You should have mentioned that before. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Well, that's the general outlook to my mind – and fairly standard for a UK summer. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
08 July 2020 08:49:15
A fairly standard summer would have the same anomalies in the NW and SE otherwise it would not be fairly standard.
severnside
08 July 2020 09:27:47

The big High through the past few model runs has been put under lots of pressure and the ridging seems to be getting weaker.


June rainfall here 116mm


July so far 18mm


6 out of 8 days of rain in July , a measly 17 hours of sunshine this month

Rob K
08 July 2020 11:58:06

As far as GFS is concerned the optimism of yesterday may have been a flash in the pan. The unsettled cluster has now taken over to dominate the GEFS ensemble for the second half of the run, with the main cluster a good 6-7C below average (at 850mb) by the end. Not what I want to see and also not what those who wrote the Met O and BBC long-rangers saw happening :(


 


The 12Z yesterday had very tight clustering all the way out to the 18th: 


Diagramme GEFS


 


Whereas the 6Z today has far greater scatter much earlier on:


 


Diagramme GEFS


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
08 July 2020 17:14:53

 




Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2020 06:47:18

N & W Europe still persistently below seasonal norm but continuing to show 'jam tomorrow' http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Continuing dry in the S, damp in the N esp NW.


GFS increasingly downplays strong development of HP - just a broad area across the S for next week with LP never far away towards Iceland. On Mon 20th HP collapses and LP moves in 990 mb N Ireland and sticks around to Wed 22nd before the previous pattern resumes.


GEFS line charts show cool, recovering to normal by Wed 15th and staying there to end of run though op and control are among the cooler options from Tue 21st. Some rain about from Wed 15th (a couple of days earlier in N England & Scotland) with best chances around Tue 21st. (esp Scotland)


ECM more positive for fine weather at first, as yesterday holding the LP further N than GFS does, but signs of an earlier breakdown with trough approaching from the NW Fri 17th


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2020 07:02:05

Jetstream forecast has altered somewhat since I last looked, Although it's dying away over the UK at the moment, it begins to revive Tu 14th and from Fri 17th is more or less continuous across the UK for 10 days with a tendency to be further S as time goes on. No sign of the loops and cut-offs that were there a few days ago.


GFS is basically zonal. HP to the S and depressions to the N throughout. LP centres making a close approach to the NW on Wed 22nd and even further S on Sun 26th.


GEFS temps - good agreement on rising to normal by Wed 15th after which although the mean of runs hits the seasonal norm, that's not very meaningful as the scatter becomes extreme even control and op going in different directions. Dry weather continues in the S (drought even for central S England) but rain continuing intermittently in Scotland,  perhaps a little rain in 2 weeks' time for the S at which time the Scotland can be confident of getting rain.


ECM agrees with GFS but does show a trough over the N Sea briefly on Wed 15th


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
moomin75
10 July 2020 07:56:15
The ECM was so good this morning, I feared it would be an outlier. It's not just an outlier, but it's an off the scale outlier. So disappointing that these outliers seem to be a regular issue this summer so far.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
overland
10 July 2020 08:34:24

The ECM was so good this morning, I feared it would be an outlier. It's not just an outlier, but it's an off the scale outlier. So disappointing that these outliers seem to be a regular issue this summer so far.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


It's been a summer or outliers. It's often ended up, at least for here, mediocre although it has been notable for how windy it's been recently.


Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Downpour
10 July 2020 08:49:36

The ECM was so good this morning, I feared it would be an outlier. It's not just an outlier, but it's an off the scale outlier. So disappointing that these outliers seem to be a regular issue this summer so far.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


It has some support from the general trend though Moomin. 


 


And it is not without support from the other models, albeit a more moderate warming up rather than a hot blast! 


 


Notably GFS has backtracked towards the much preferable UKM. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
JACKO4EVER
10 July 2020 10:07:14
After the delightful Spring, this summer has turned out to be turd-tastic here. Truly dreadful, typical of yet another UK season being unseasonal (yes there are a few weeks left blah blah blah).
Stormchaser
10 July 2020 10:20:22

The ECM was so good this morning, I feared it would be an outlier. It's not just an outlier, but it's an off the scale outlier. So disappointing that these outliers seem to be a regular issue this summer so far.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



This post feels very misleading... an 'off the scale' outlier is only applicable for the 10th day, before which it's comfortably within the spread. In fact, at the cool end for Tue-Wed which suggests that the weak low may not dive down quite so sharply.


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Gusty
10 July 2020 16:50:08

Signs of high pressure edging towards the UK from the GFS, GEM and so far the UKMO at around 144 hours. Will it hold it to offer us a fine weekend (18th/ 19th July) or will it be effortlessly eroded from the NW ahead of another 3 to 4 day spell of relatively cool WNW'ly's ?


Perception of summer 2020 is rapidly going down the pan. It needs to sort itself out .....and soon ! 


GEM 144



UKMO 144



GFS 144



 


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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2020 17:06:31
Does feel like an upgrade day. Last 2 days were miserable for model watching. Perhaps the darkest hour is just before the dawn.

Weather here’s still cold and autumnal mind.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
SJV
10 July 2020 18:38:28

Does feel like an upgrade day. Last 2 days were miserable for model watching. Perhaps the darkest hour is just before the dawn.

Weather here’s still cold and autumnal mind.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes that breeze was rather fresh and un-July like. Nice to actually feel the summer sun's warmth though! 


Good to see the output trending upwards again after a dodgy few days. Perhaps the models are latching better to the improving AAM?

doctormog
10 July 2020 18:42:18
Yes, the 12z ECM looks encouraging so far too.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2020 18:50:55
ECM good up to 192. But I’m now needing to refocus my model watching for an upcoming holiday to Scotland (assuming Nicola doesn’t close the border). Interesting watching the models from a Scottish point of view as I’m looking for different things. No longer is zonal flow and warm air in the SE enough.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Downpour
10 July 2020 19:05:06
Output looking good.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
idj20
10 July 2020 19:51:15

I would bank the latest runs as far as my neck of the woods is concerned. Pleasantly dry and warm with plenty of sunshine but never getting too silly hot by day and yet comfortably cool by night for the next week or so. What's not to like about it? 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Downpour
10 July 2020 21:15:05


I would bank the latest runs as far as my neck of the woods is concerned. Pleasantly dry and warm with plenty of sunshine but never getting too silly hot by day and yet comfortably cool by night for the next week or so. What's not to like about it? 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Yes, lovely English summer weather. Perfick!


Chingford
London E4
147ft

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