10-dayer looking a lot warmer by week 2 though NW Scotland may still feel left out. Even some rain for the south later on.  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS has joined yesterday's ECM. After getting the present LP out of the way  there's a ridge on Thu 30th holding LP off to the W with a plume of warm air coming up from the S. The warm air then hangs around but with shallow LP over the S promising thundery conditions while twin centres of HP W of Ireland and over Norway block an incursion from the Atlantic. Rather different to yesterday!

GEFS for the S,  temps below norm to Wed 29th then well above by Sat 1st, and staying somewhat above normal in most runs throughout. Some rain, more than yesterday, esp around Tue 4th. Perhaps not as warm or wet as GFS synoptics suggest. Similar temp profile for Scotland, rain in smaller amount but more frequent (though there are some big outlier spikes)

ECM vindicated for the initial plume but disappointing after Sun 2nd with LP migrating to the N of the UK and cooler generally W-ly flow than GFS

You are obsessed with the south and east and pointing out that the weather is not as good elsewhere yet moaning when other people do the same thing. Baffling.

It's NOT been a great summer down here but is has been largely usable

Good description. Today yet again 25C despite lots of cloud - No way is the likes of that cold and wet.

All depends where you are in the country, SE & E generally better to achieve summery condition's.

Overall here has been a poor summer so far. Unfortunately the poorer days outweigh the better days.

20-25 million people live in the south and east, that’s 35-45% of the whole UK.

It’s been a classic summer really, not hot, not wet, not anything (although probably sunnier than average east of the Chiltern Hills).

There IS an obsession on TWO with concentrating on the very wet conditions in the far NW where very few people actually live. 

But that’s really not representative of the summer for most people in the UK, so is often misleading to newer members.

easy tiger, be careful when pointing out that the UK comprises of more than just South East England, some folks might actually have to consult an atlas to grasp reality 

I wouldn't call NW England 'the far NW where very few people live'.

The Merseyside and Greater Manchester conurbations alone have a combined population approaching 5m. And the weather since late June has been pants. 

It depends what you call a good summer.  Some want 30c days and sticky nights, as I did when younger.  Now I’m happy with usable, dry and low to mid 20’s during the day with nights that are comfortable for sleeping, which is pretty much what we’ve had here so far this summer.  

I wouldn't call NW England that either, but I thought that Downpour was referring to NW Scotland. And yes the weather has been that particular type of underwear since we had that brief hot spell in late JUne. Signs of a change towards the end of this week and into August perhaps?

There was something similar in 1976. We had moved house from Manchester to Kent at Whitsun to fit the house buying and selling chain but I had to stay weekdays i in Manchester to complete the summer term. The contrast between Manchester where the weather was pleasant, shirtsleeve days and occasional rain, and sweltering drought in the SE was quite dramatic when I went down to join my wife and daughter for weekends.

Jetstream currently running W-ly across UK but switching to more S-ly by Fri 31st. Resuming W-ly by Mon 3rd but weaker, breaking up and moving to N of UK by Sat 8th

GFS again following in ECM's footsteps for next week (and matching the latest jetstream). LP due Mon 27th  moves off E-wards, then a combination of the next LP to W and ridge over N Sea gives a blast of warmth Fri 31st. That LP then moves N and is followed by others travelling across the Atlantic to give a W-ly spell of weather  terminating with one LP centre over England Fri 7th after which some suggestion of HP building in from SW.

GEFS temps go up and down, though hot Fri 31st/Sat 1st nailed on. Lots of scatter from Wed 5th , mean near norm but a couple of wildly hot (+10C) outliers, notably in the S. Some rain around Mon 3rd - that's different from yesterday, too - and the N & Scotland get a spike on Mon 27th as well.

ECM replaces the GFS westerlies in week of Mon 3rd with more distinct LP centres and HP ridges alternating across the UK

Looks this morning like we could get a 30c day on the last day of July and the first day of August.

my point is that there are wildly different “realities” depending on which climatic region of the UK one is referring to. 

Definitely a theme for significant heat week two of August. GFS can be very good at spotting pattern changes from a long way out hopefully it's onto something again.

Almost guaranteed from the 11th of August when the Scottish school holidays end!

Always seems the way.

GEFS definitely picking up the heat signal later on.

That's another misconception that gets peddled, and it's annoying. 

Mid-20's is perfectly fine for me and pretty much everyone else. What most people want is settled, sunny & warm period over several weeks.

Day after day after day of predictably nice weather is perfect in the summer. 

Well said 👍👍

Lets hope the models are picking up on a settled spell for the whole country.

Not sure if anyone takes notice of the Beijing climate models,but it has been showing a very High pressure dominated August .

Although CFS has been poor ,however how accurate are they ?

Beautiful plumage. But will it reach Notlob?

Perfect summer nights are in the 14C-17C range. They're not uncomfortable for sleeping in and allow the garden plants to thrive - chillies & tomatoes especially. Thankfully for down here that is a fairly average summer temperature range and this year for the most part has been around that, but we did have a couple chilly nights down to 10C recently :( 

I do like +30C day's but the 26C-28C with some humidity are perfectly acceptable summer heat day's, with 21C-23C being typical average range, 24C-25C reserved for warm but none descript days.