That's my view of today and tomorrow, but hopefully it'll improve next week. From the Met Office:

Today: Fine and dry on Friday, with plenty of sunshine and feeling very warm with light winds. Perhaps a chance of afternoon sea fog along the Kent and East Sussex coast. Maximum temperature 29 °C.

Tomorrow: A fine start for most with any coastal fog patches soon burning away. Cloud increasing through the afternoon. Maximum temperature 27 °C.

I need to mow the lawn, but damned if I'm doing it with temperatures in the high 20s - far too warm for that sort of thing!

Just noticed there is a signal for hotter conditions in early August. Worth keeping an eye on it. 

Had a decent spell last summer late in the month, and a few short-lived spells that weren't even that good in other years, but no, we've not had an August that overall could be deemed 'good' since 2003 (which fit into the 'great' category).

I think that's an incredible stat, especially given how frequently good Augusts happened prior to this 

Good Augusts are quite rare.

I don't know how accurate it is but my perception has been that over the last 10 years or so the biggest improvements (in terms of warm temperatures, sunshine and lack of rain) have been in spring and autumn. Yes there has been the odd blip like the March of 2013, but many times April has felt like a summer month - even February felt quite summery last year, after the first few days! Likewise September and even October have had plenty of warm sunshine in recent years. If July and August had "improved" to the same extent then we'd be looking at 40C most years!

Jetstream forecast to remain in the neighbourhood of the UK - weak and fragmented at first, but after a short break at the end of next week, resuming as a full-on westerly flow through to Mon 3rd.

GFS shows the ridge of HP continuing to poke in from the Azores for this week after which UK weather increasingly dominated by LP coming from the N Atlantic entraining some really cool air, with only brief breaks between. LP centres tending to stay further north than on yesterday's output - Sun 26th Scottish borders, Wed 29th Hebrides both 1005mb, Mon 3rd Faeroes deeper at 990mb

GEFS temps down to 5C below seasonal norm at first (the SE gets a day's reprieve) and then fairly good agreement between runs for 1-2C below to Mon 3rd (just a couple of outlying warm ones in the S), Rain now and then from Fri 24th, more in the N.

ECM (I have to go out soon so this is the 12z from yesterday) A less defined breakdown Sat 25th and a better recovery with the Azores high back strongly by Mon 27th

GFS just keeps funnelling a succession of lows over the UK as we approach the end of July. The LRFs suggesting a widespread settling down for the second half of the month look well off the mark.

I know, and this is very frustrating. Explanations, of course, involve the jet stream, but I want to know what is driving the jet stream to allow these wallowing, extensive (although not that deep) lows to just drift around to our N /NE for so much time. When HP builds in, it hangs around just long enough to let the cooler air behind the LP settle in; then as soon as the 850s are modelled to get much above 5°C the high collapses.

This seems to be modelled again and again.

Is there something unusual about the alignment/ position of strongest thermal contrast? Or is this something to do with Siberian heat changing the way pressure cells interact (there seem to be a good few lows drifting aimlessly around with little regard for the standard W-E migration). The Azores chappie better get a shiftie on because in a few weeks there are likely to be disruptions with ET storms and then little chance of getting a sustained summer settled spell.

Anybody got answers? The MetO keep pushing their settled outlook forwards so there is obviously something harder to diagnose than usual (although credit them with saying warm spells will be short lived, for some time now).

yes Moomins  ark predictions could well come to pass. Poor bloke took some stick, but he called it as he saw it. And yes usual caveats apply- not happened yet blah blah blah.

its mid July, it’s crap (IMBY anyway) and summer needs to get a move on before it’s all too late. Looks like yet another unseasonal UK season could well be unfolding 

lol it's been far from the apocalyptic washout moomin has been forecasting almost monthly since as far back as i can remember. 

A bit duller then normal yes, and no significant heat as of yet, but rainfall is around average at the moment down here.

Indeed, what has been well above average is the level of histrionics. Next up, a pretty settled and nice week after a very warm couple of days. 

All in all pretty average in the south.

Agreed, pleasant enough if like me,  you feel that 25C is uncomforatably hot. But 10-day charts don't offer anything interesting in that there's nothing remotely resembling a heat wave, nor is there significant rain away from the NW (so no interesting thundery weather either)

GFS has the Azores high nudging in and keeping the weather warm-ish and dry for this week before a general drop in pressure Sun 26th with cool NW-lies and LP trundling down into the N Sea by Tue 28th. After that a few days of W-ly zonal weather before a deeper LP 990mb appears over NI Sun 2nd, moving E-wards.

GEFS temps back to around seasonal norm by Thu 23rd and remaining so to end of run though with more variation between runs than yesterday (temps perhaps a little optimistic by comparison with GFS synoptics, though the GFS op run is one of the cooler members). Some rain irregularly from that date for the N, starting a few days later in the S.

ECM fills the first LP shown by GFS more quickly but slips in another one to the NW on Wed 29th while that 'deeper LP' is brewing on the Atlantic

The stats do support this to some extent. If you compare the years 1981-2010 with the 10 years 2010-2019, it is notable that both April and October have been much warmer. In fact each has been 0.5C warmer on the CET series which is significant. May-July have been 0.2-0.3C warmer so still an increase.

The notable exception is August which has dropped by 0.3C. In fact August is the only month where the CET mean was lower in the period 2010-2019 than it was in the 30 years 1971-2000.

The other month that stands out is December. The mean CET for 2010-2019 is 0.8C higher than for 1981-2010. Of course the 1981-2010 data includes the exceptionally cold months of 1981 and 2010. Assuming December 2020 is close to average then the mean for 2011-2020 is likely to be in excess of 6C which is about 1.5C higher than the 1981-2010 mean and three times greater than the increase in any other month. In fact December is in danger of becoming warmer than March on a regular basis. In the past 9 years, December has been warmer than March 4 times.

So far this month the minimum CET is running close to average (about 0.2C below). The maximum CET is about 2.2C below average. So it has been poor temperature wise. The output for this week after today suggests something very pleasant here in the south at least. Temperatures will  probably only be around average but it should feel pleasent enough in the sunshine. 

A tendency for a 'summer monsoon' to develop, perhaps?

I found that informative and interesting.  Thanks for posting.

Jetstream almost absent from the Uk this week but resuming from the west Sat 25th and continuing to end of run Wed 5th (with a loop enfolding the UK from the Mon 3rd)

GFS shows the Azores high just about covering the Uk to Sat 25th after which zonal flow with troughs crossing or just N of Scotland throughout, the said troughs reaching further S from time to time (Sun 26th, Fri 31st, Mon 3rd, Wed 5th)

GEFS as yesterday, temps recovering to or a little below seasonal norm on & from Thu 23rd, rain irregularly from Sat 25th (rather less than yesterday in the S, some runs with larger spikes in the N to match the above troughs)

ECM agrees for this week but brings back the Azores high more strongly after Sun 26th though even so with its own trough on Wed 29th.

Actually quite a few warmish days in the forecasts (for the South - a very strong N/S divide in the models, sadly for my forthcoming Scotland holiday). Whilst it seems unlikely we'll manage to bag a 30C this month, the best chance of this looks to be around the last 2 or 3 days of the month. GFS 06z has 27C in London on 29th, which probably means 29C if it's sunny.

yes, the third glorious day in four down south, makes a complete mockery of the misleading nonsense posted on here daily. A decent week ahead too. 

10-day view looking cooler than last night with NW/SE gradient in place http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4. Similar split for rain, concentrated in the NW.

GFS synoptics have the present ridge declining to zonal W-lies and to general LP by Sun 26th (BBC Meteo Group was quite keen to bring this on last night). New ridge from S Tue  28th and the pattern then repeats itself in quite remarkably similar fashion to finish with LP over UK on Mon 3rd. Even a suggestion that the same cycle will happen again the following week.

GEFS temps at or somewhat below seasonal norm throughout, though poor agreement between runs in a week's time. A new definite signal for rain generally on Sun 26th after which not a lot in the S but on and off throughout in the N and in Scotland. 

ECM slower to clear that LP after Sun 26th i.e. less optimistic than yesterday, but provides a new ridge from Azores by Thu 30th

Do you have facts for sunshine hours vs average in the SE this week?

I’m on a biking holiday throughout Essex and Suffolk.

I dare say if you asked anyone here they would say this was glorious weather.